Hand-Hygiene Mitigation Strategies Against Global Disease Spreading through the Air Transportation Network

The risk for a global transmission of flu-type viruses is strengthened by the physical contact between humans and accelerated through individual mobility patterns. The Air Transportation System plays a critical role in such transmissions because it is responsible for fast and long-range human travel, while its building components—the airports—are crowded, confined areas with usually poor hygiene. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and World Health Organization (WHO) consider hand hygiene as the most efficient and cost-effective way to limit disease propagation. Results from clinical studies reveal the effect of hand washing on individual transmissibility of infectious diseases. However, its potential as a mitigation strategy against the global risk for a pandemic has not been fully explored. Here, we use epidemiological modeling and data-driven simulations to elucidate the role of individual engagement with hand hygiene inside airports in conjunction with human travel on the global spread of epidemics. We find that, by increasing travelers engagement with hand hygiene at all airports, a potential pandemic can be inhibited by 24% to 69%. In addition, we identify 10 airports at the core of a cost-optimal deployment of the hand-washing mitigation strategy. Increasing hand-washing rate at only those 10 influential locations, the risk of a pandemic could potentially drop by up to 37%. Our results provide evidence for the effectiveness of hand hygiene in airports on the global spread of infections that could shape the way public-health policy is implemented with respect to the overall objective of mitigating potential population health crises.     

New polya and inverse polya distributions of order k

New Polya and inverse Polya distributions of order k are derived by means of generalized urn models and by compounding the binomial and negative binomial distributions of order k of Philippou (1986, 1983) with the beta distribution. It i s noted that the present Polpa distribution of order k includes as special cases a new hypergeometric distribution of order k, a negative one,an inverse one, and a discrete uniform of the same order. The probability generating functions, means and variances of the new distributions are obtained, and five asymptotic results are established relating them to the abovedmentioned binomial and negative binomial distributions of order k, and to the Poisson distribution of the same order of Philippou (1983).Moment estimates are also given and applications are indicated.     

Application of the multi-criteria analysis method Electre III for the optimisation of decentralised energy systems

The optimisation of decentralised energy systems has to integrate a series of factors, by implementing an approach based on interdisciplinary comprehension. There are technical, financial, environmental and social conditions that determine the selection and dimensioning of energy systems, particularly if these aim at covering the demand of remote regions by utilising renewable energy sources. Such a study requests the overall consideration of the local geological, morphological and climatic conditions, the capacities of the networks, and also the inclusion of the economic and social limitations, an approach that leads to a number of alternative solutions. The application of multi-criteria analysis can integrate the various aspects into a uniform evaluation procedure. This paper discusses the results of a study on determining the achievable penetration of renewable energy sources into an insular system for the purpose of electricity generation. The multi-criteria analysis method Electre III was implemented for this purpose. The research relies on data produced within the framework of the SEDEPIC project, financed by the ALTENER II/DG XVII programme.