Environmentalism: Challenging the societal consensus between labour and capital?

The conflicts between protecting the environment and pursuing conventional political objectives concerned with rising GNP, employment, etc. are increasingly influencing decision‐making processes and scientific debate. For sociology this results in a new area of research that focuses on the consequences and impacts of environmental concerns. One basic aspect of an Environmental Sociology is concerned with the re‐ordering of societal alliances. In order to do so, the article introduces some elements of a cognitive network approach. Environmentalism, advanced by collective actors such as environmental organizations, promotes alternative models to productionist politics. By doing so, these actors are challenging the alliance between labour and capital. In an empirical study of the debate on nuclear energy the paper focuses on the challenge that environmentalism has posed to the consensus between labour and capital in Sweden and Germany. The results show striking differences between both countries. Moreover, the analysis arrives at the conclusion that environmentalism may not only challenge the consensus between labour and capital but may also lead to a new cleavage within the labour movement.     

Attention to Threat as a Predictor of Shyness in the Context of Internalizing and Externalizing Behavior

The duration of children's attention to putative threat has been documented as a consistent predictor of later anxiety in inhibited children across childhood (Fox, New Directions for Child and Adolescent Development, 127, 2010, 33; Pérez‐Edgar & Fox, Child and Adolescent Psychiatric Clinics of North America, 14, 2005, 681). However, attention to threat has not been broadly examined within existing behavioral contexts and has seldom been studied in very early childhood. Whereas toddlers with high levels of internalizing behavior may view fear‐inducing stimuli as a threat, toddlers with high levels of externalizing behavior may demonstrate attention out of interest or sensation seeking. Thus, attention to threat was expected to predict increased toddler shyness in the context of either high internalizing problems or low externalizing behavior. We examined 117 twenty‐four‐month‐old toddlers to determine whether attention to threat interacted with internalizing and externalizing behavior at 24 months of age to predict toddler shyness one year later. Results indicated that attention to threat predicted toddlers' lower shyness at 36 months when toddlers’ externalizing behavior at age 24 months were high, but there was no significant interaction between toddlers’ internalizing behavior and their attention to threat in predicting later shyness. These results expand our understanding of the contexts in which attention to threat in early childhood is a viable predictor of later shyness.     

Jury theorems with multiple alternatives

I consider a game in which imperfectly informed jurors vote to select one of several possible choices when there is a natural ordering of the possibilities. Each juror votes for the largest alternative the juror would like to implement, and the alternative that is selected is the largest alternative supported by a given number of jurors. For non-unanimous voting rules, the probability of a mistaken judgment goes to zero as the number of jurors goes to infinity. I also give necessary and sufficient conditions to obtain asymptotic efficiency under unanimous voting rules, and show that unanimous rules may lead to a bias in which moderate outcomes are never chosen.     

Inter- and transdisciplinary approaches to population–environment research for sustainability aims: a review and appraisal

The causes and consequences of demographic changes for the environment, and the possible ways of influencing population dynamics to achieve ‘sustainability’, have been the subject of many debates in science and policy in recent decades. However, the body of knowledge concerning relationships between population dynamics and sustainability is quite fragmented, dispersed over many disciplines, and encompasses diverse theories, paradigms and methodologies. This paper reviews four selected frameworks: linear, multiplicative, mediated, and system-theoretical approaches and perspectives. We represent how population–environment relationships are conceptualized, provide examples of research questions and accepted approaches, and critically assess their utility for different sorts of research for sustainable development. We note the growing recognition of the value of embracing complexity in population–environment research, and how this is consistent with normative aims of development.     

Pre-election polling and third party candidates

I analyze voters’ incentives in responding to pre-election polls with a third party candidate. Third party supporters normally have an incentive to vote strategically in the election by voting for one of the major candidates. But these voters would vote third party if the third party candidate is doing surprisingly well in the polls. Because voters are more likely to vote third party if the third party candidate is doing well in polls, voters who like the third party candidate best have an incentive to claim they will vote third party in the polls so that more voters will ultimately vote third party in the election. The differing incentives faced during polls and elections accounts for why third party candidates do better in polls than in elections.     

Exploratory assessment of dose proportionality: review of current approaches and proposal for a practical criterion

This article reviews currently used approaches for establishing dose proportionality in Phase I dose escalation studies. A review of relevant literature between 2002 and 2006 found that the power model was the preferred choice for assessing dose proportionality in about one-third of the articles. This article promotes the use of the power model and a conceptually appealing extension, i.e. a criterion based on comparing the 90% confidence interval for the ratio of predicted mean values from the extremes of the dose range (R(dnm)) to pre-defined equivalence criterion (theta(L),theta(U)). The choice of bioequivalence default values of theta(L)=0.8 and theta(U)=1.25 seems reasonable for dose levels only a doubling apart but are impractically strict when applied over the complete dose range. Power calculations are used to show that this prescribed criterion lacks power to conclude dose proportionality in typical Phase I dose-escalation studies. A more lenient criterion with values theta(L)=0.5 and theta(U)=2 is proposed for exploratory dose proportionality assessments across the complete dose range.     

A comparison of HIV risk practices among unprotected sex-seeking older and younger men who have sex with other men

Purpose: In recent years, much attention has been devoted to understanding the HIV risk behaviors of younger men who have sex with men (MSM). Recent data suggest that HIV is becoming an increasing problem for older adults, but little attention has been devoted to understanding their HIV risk behaviors or the factors that underlie their risk taking. This study provides a comparison of these issues among younger and older MSM. Methods: The data come from a subset of younger (ages 18–39, n?=?113) and older (ages 50+, n?=?109) men participating in a national study of 332 men who use the Internet to find other men for unprotected sex. Men were sampled randomly from 16 websites. Data were collected via telephone interviews conducted in 2008 and 2009. Results: Younger and older men reported comparable involvement in HIV risk, including involvement in unprotected sex, proportion of sex acts involving internal ejaculation, number of times having anonymous sex, and number of times having multiple-partner sex. Generally speaking, the factors underlying the risk practices of younger and older men were quite different (e.g. self-esteem and condom use self-efficacy for younger men, versus HIV serostatus and depression for older men). Conclusions: Older MSM using the Internet to find partners for unprotected sex engage in high rates of behaviors that place them at risk for contracting or transmitting HIV. They were just as likely as their younger counterparts to practice these behaviors. The factors “fueling” involvement in risk generally differ for older and younger men, thereby warranting the development of age-specific HIV interventions that can take into account the unique life circumstances and needs of older MSM.     

Preemptive Policy Experimentation

We develop a model of experimentation and learning in policymaking when control of power is temporary. We demonstrate how an early office holder who would otherwise not experiment is nonetheless induced to experiment when his hold on power is temporary. This preemptive policy experiment is profitable for the early office holder as it reveals information about the policy mapping to his successor, information that shapes future policy choices. Thus policy choices today can cast a long shadow over future choices purely through information transmission and absent any formal institutional constraints or real state variables. The model we develop utilizes a recent innovation that represents the policy mapping as the realized path of a Brownian motion. We provide a precise characterization of when preemptive experimentation emerges in equilibrium and the form it takes. We apply the model to several well known episodes of policymaking, reinterpreting the policy choices as preemptive experiments.