Utilizing Bayesian predictive power in clinical trial design

The Bayesian paradigm provides an ideal platform to update uncertainties and carry them over into the future in the presence of data. Bayesian predictive power (BPP) reflects our belief in the eventual success of a clinical trial to meet its goals. In this paper we derive mathematical expressions for the most common types of outcomes, to make the BPP accessible to practitioners, facilitate fast computations in adaptive trial design simulations that use interim futility monitoring, and propose an organized BPP-based phase II-to-phase III design framework.     

Learning technologies at the service of higher education: global trends and local Israeli opportunities

This paper provides an overview of global trends in e-Learning and opportunities opened by harnessing learning technologies at the service of the Israeli higher education. The introduction of innovative learning technologies is examined in light of an organizational change. A series of substantial issues should be taken into account to successfully manage the change. Among these are: rethinking of academic learning and instruction, redefining the role of the teachers and the students, decoupling the learning materials and the learning process, new approaches to student assessment and program evaluation, and instituting a well thought out organizational plan including a support center. The above-mentioned issues guided the introduction of a recent call for project proposals for the integration of technologies into Israeli higher education. The main principles, criteria and results of this call are described.     

‘Diagnosis and Family Therapy: Traditional’ Psychiatry and the Concepts of Disease and Diagnosis

The process of diagnosis in medicine and psychiatry is described. An historical review of the concept of disease provides three models of disease: (1) as a lesion (2) as a host environment relation (3) as a statistical concept, each of which has implications for diagnosis. Three models of psychiatric diagnosis are outlined — (1) the categorical (2) the dimensional, and (3) the multi-axial. The limitations and deficiencies of each of these models are described, both in general terms and specifically in the light of family-systems thinking.     

Narratives and the Therapist's Allegiance

Trainee therapists are attracted to particular treatment philosophies through the influence of complex factors which are embedded in the narratives of the origins and successes of a particular model of treatment. The relevance of these stories to the development of a professional identity is discussed with specific attention to family therapy.     

Information Independence and Common Knowledge

In Bayesian environments with private information, as described by the types of Harsanyi, how can types of agents be (statistically) disassociated from each other and how are such disassociations reflected in the agents' knowledge structure? Conditions studied are (i) subjective independence (the opponents' types are independent conditional on one's own) and (ii) type disassociation under common knowledge (the agents' types are independent, conditional on some common‐knowledge variable). Subjective independence is motivated by its implications in Bayesian games and in studies of equilibrium concepts. We find that a variable that disassociates types is more informative than any common‐knowledge variable. With three or more agents, conditions (i) and (ii) are equivalent. They also imply that any variable which is common knowledge to two agents is common knowledge to all, and imply the existence of a unique common‐knowledge variable that disassociates types, which is the one defined by Aumann.     

Bayesian Representation of Stochastic Processes under Learning: de Finetti Revisited

A probability distribution governing the evolution of a stochastic process has infinitely many Bayesian representations of the form μ=∫μdλ(θ). Among these, a natural representation is one whose components ( μ's) are ‘learnable’ (one can approximate μ by conditioning μ on observation of the process) and ‘sufficient for prediction’ (μ's predictions are not aided by conditioning on observation of the process). We show the existence and uniqueness of such a representation under a suitable asymptotic mixing condition on the process. This representation can be obtained by conditioning on the tail-field of the process, and any learnable representation that is sufficient for prediction is asymptotically like the tail-field representation. This result is related to the celebrated de Finetti theorem, but with exchangeability weakened to an asymptotic mixing condition, and with his conclusion of a decomposition into i.i.d. component distributions weakened to components that are learnable and sufficient for prediction.     

Structural sources of personnel problems in multinational corporations: Third-country nationals

The paper examines the extent to which multinational corporations (MNCs) whose staffing policies approach the genuine multinational model are free of the dysfunctions found by the authors in earlier studies of ethnocentric MNCs. The findings are based on comparative research in 51 MNCs, and intensive diagnostic studies of seven subsidiaries of MNCs operating and headquartered in four continents. The findings may be summed up as follows: (1) certain, but very few, morale problems have indeed been eliminated; (2) others are still present; (3) others are still present and their effect has intensified; and (4) new problems have appeared which are unique to the staffing policy approximating to the genuine multinational model. These findings shed new light on several of the assumptions underlying this model. The general conclusion is that each prevalent type of staffing policy has several sources of morale problems—some inherent in its uniqueness, and others shared by the alternative staffing policies—irrespective of the personal qualifications of the managers. Therefore, it is unrealistic to expect that a change toward the genuine multinational model would solve the basic morale problems prevalent in the dominant type of MNCs.     

Framing the rabbit to snare the votes

Results in cognitive psychology and experimental economics suggest that people are prone to systematic misperception of policy. This paper embodies voters’ misperceptions of policy into a standard political economy framework with complete information, and examines whether and to what extent political parties may use this misperception to manipulate voters and derive political gains. We analyze the equilibria and welfare implications for different setups. A payroll tax incidence detailed example is used to illustrate the framework. The paper is based in part on a chapter in the second author’s Ph.D. dissertation. The authors wish to thank Elhanan Helpman, seminar participants in Silvaplana and Bonn University and two anonymous referees for helpful comments and suggestions. The authors are grateful for financial assistance by the Sapir Fund.     

The Longest Shadow A Clinical Commentary On Moshe Lang's Silence: Therapy with Holocaust Survivors and their Families

This commentary addresses one of the issues raised by Moshe Lang's Silence: Therapy with Holocaust Survivors and their Families, namely the paucity of a psychotherapy literature about holocaust survivors and their families. Possible reasons for this phenomenon are discussed, with an emphasis on the implications for family therapy.