Longitudinal Analysis of Employment and Unemployment Based on Matched Rotation Samples

ABSTRACT: The purpose of this paper is to provide methodology to fit longitudinal data on employment and unemployment generated by the rotation sampling schemes of national labour force surveys. The proposed methodology, referred to as infinite-lag Markov models, is a generalisation of autoregressive Markov models developed for application in stochastic reservoir theory (Pegram 1980, Raftery 1985). Infinite-lag Markov chains have infinite memory and, therefore, can usefully serve to model labour supply behaviour taking into account, in principle, the complete past work experience of individuals, and not just the most recent past or the most recent spell. After a brief review of the rotation sampling schemes of 20 national labour force surveys, the different types of longitudinal sequences that can be obtained from the rotation schemes are examined. A review of various models proposed in the literature for analysing longitudinal data on employment and unemployment, expressed under simplified assumptions and in discrete forms, set the stage for the formulation of the proposed infinite-lag Markov model. The method is illustrated using matched longitudinal data derived from the US Current Population Survey.     

Marginalized random-effects models for clustered binomial data through innovative link functions

AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis - Random-effects models are frequently used to analyze clustered binomial data. The direct computation of the marginal mean response, when integrated over the...     

A hybrid approach to the study of CPFR implementation enablers

Collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment (CPFR) is one of the most important but also one of the most difficult collaborative strategies in supply chain management. CPFR has been well documented in past research as providing significant benefit to those that implement it well. It has also been noted that CPFR uptake has been significantly lower than initially expected. The main reason for this slow uptake is the general recognition that successful implementation of CPFR is not a trivial task and the fact that it inflicts dramatic changes to the ‘usual’ way of doing business. Based on the premise that CPFR has significant positive potential for supply chain collaboration, the motivation of this paper is to review CPFR enablers and to develop a model which addresses the most significant ones. To complete this task, a hybrid modelling approach integrating fuzzy extended analytical hierarchy process and interpretive structural modelling is proposed. The model developed is based on an identified gap by the automotive sector and embeds expert opinion, from two separate industrial groups in the automotive sector through the use of workshops. Although potential success factors for CPFR implementation can vary across somewhat between differing supply chains, the results maintain wider general applicability due to the many common issues across sectors. The paper highlights the need for decision-makers to be aware of the most influential enablers prior to a CPFR implementation project and to understand the relationships between these enablers.     

A MODEL OF GROWTH AND CONVERGENCE IN THE PRESENCE OF INPUT-ENHANCING FACTORS: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY

We introduce and estimate a growth model involving non-neutral technical change characterized by the presence of input-enhancing factors that vary across countries and serve to offset (and potentially eliminate) diminishing returns to capital. Our empirical results, however, indicate that diminishing returns to capital proves too strong to be overcome by, say, capital-enhancing factors. Consequently, our model predicts a conditional convergence of output per worker across countries, with the speed of convergence being slower than that found in earlier models involving neutral technical change.     

Participation in Decentralized Local Governance: Two Contrasting Cases from the Philippines

Contrary to the popular assumptions among international donor agencies, preceding studies have questioned the causal relations between decentralization, participation and pro-poor policy outcomes. This article introduces two cases of decentralized city governments in the Philippines: one employs radical forms of civil participation, while the other introduces modest ones, but both of them have been successfully launching pro-poor policies. Through referring these contrasting cases to a “participatory governance” model and a “governance with trusts” model, the paper argues that the approach to local governance is not linear.

Development NGOs and Political Participation of the Poor in Bangladesh and Nepal

This paper examines the role of development NGOs (nongovernmental organizations) in furthering the political participation of the poor, with data from Bangladesh and Nepal. The topic is discussed from three aspects: the role of NGOs in prodemocracy movements, the issues raised by antiglobalization movements, and the extent of NGO involvement in local government elections. The paper draws on fieldwork conducted in two villages—one in Bangladesh and the other in Nepal. It is concluded that development NGOs tend to contribute more to elite interests than to the democratic political participation of the poor.     

A technical note on “A fuzzy set approach for R&D portfolio selection using a real options valuation model” by Wang and Hwang (2007)

In this paper, three critical issues with the paper “A fuzzy set approach for R&D portfolio selection using a real options valuation model”, coauthored by Wang and Hwang and published in Omega 2007 are addressed. Shortcomings of the original work are highlighted and corrective measures to improve the approach are proposed.