《未成年人保护法(修订草案)》述评与完善

未成年人保护法修订草案积极回应了当前面临的未成年人法律困境和现实诉求,提出和细化了许多具体举措,尤其是新增了未成年人最大利益原则,确立了国家监护制度,体现了重大的进步。在立法关系上,无论是与预防未成年人犯罪法草案,还是与现行的其他涉及未成年保护的相关法律,未保法草案均与之存在着不协调问题。未保法草案的修法思路亟待从“理想化的统领和难以操作的补漏”转向务实性的“重点明晰和问题导向”,亦即未成年人保护法的“福利法化”并呼应预防未成年人犯罪法的“少年法化”。未保法草案的体例布局未能充分体现立法本意和修法初衷,在概念厘清、文本形式、涵盖内容与表达逻辑上均需要进一步改进和完善。     

A New Methodology for Before–After Safety Assessment Using Survival Analysis and Longitudinal Data

The widely used empirical Bayes (EB) and full Bayes (FB) methods for before–after safety assessment are sometimes limited because of the extensive data needs from additional reference sites. To address this issue, this study proposes a novel before–after safety evaluation methodology based on survival analysis and longitudinal data as an alternative to the EB/FB method. A Bayesian survival analysis (SARE) model with a random effect term to address the unobserved heterogeneity across sites is developed. The proposed survival analysis method is validated through a simulation study before its application. Subsequently, the SARE model is developed in a case study to evaluate the safety effectiveness of a recent red‐light‐running photo enforcement program in New Jersey. As demonstrated in the simulation and the case study, the survival analysis can provide valid estimates using only data from treated sites, and thus its results will not be affected by the selection of defective or insufficient reference sites. In addition, the proposed approach can take into account the censored data generated due to the transition from the before period to the after period, which has not been previously explored in the literature. Using individual crashes as units of analysis, survival analysis can incorporate longitudinal covariates such as the traffic volume and weather variation, and thus can explicitly account for the potential temporal heterogeneity.     

锁模半导体激光器产生带宽极限的超短光脉冲

利用主动锁模技术,以光在外腔中的往返频率调制注入电流,在外腔中加入F-P标准具(Fabry-Perot etalon)后,在国內首次获得了带宽极限的可调谐完全锁模半导体激光超短脉冲。该脉冲源可望用于高速光通信、光孤子通信等领域。     

CRM的理念与实施中关键因素分析

随着市场环境、竞争环境的快速变化 ,企业的管理理念、服务观念开始发生重大转变 ,使得CRM(CustomerRelationshipManagement,客户关系管理 )成为当前热点。本文试从CRM在国内外的应用情况、CRM体现的管理理念、服务宗旨以及实施中应考虑的一些重要因素进行分析     

整合教育:高校思想政治教育的新思路——应对高校“两课”教学的离散趋向

我国高校将“两课”作为实施思想政治教育的主战场目前存在的最大问题是教育教学的某些方面出现离散趋向。本文通过对高校“两课”中出现的离散趋向的分析，认为在思想政治教育教学实践中要实施整合教育，并提出整合教育的具体构想。     

谭献词学理论的继承与创新

谭献是晚清一位词学大家 ,在继承常州派张惠言、周济词学理论的基础上 ,根据自己创作和整理词集的经验和心得 ,提出了新的词学观点 ,进一步完善了常州派词论 ,对中国词学理论有杰出的贡献。谭献的词论主要有 :一、继承常州词派的观点 ,继续推尊词体。二、在词的创作方面 ,提倡比兴柔厚。三、在词的鉴赏批评上 ,提出“作者之用心未必然 ,读者之用心何必不然”的著名观点。     

新时期公立高校学生管理的法治化研究

探究公立高校学生管理的法治化，推进高校依法治校，促进高校和谐管理正日益成为高校构建和谐校园的重要方面。从传统高校学生管理存在的问题入手，提出了新时期高校学生的管理应当以构建和谐校园为目标，正确认识高校与学生的法律关系，把握高校学生管理的法治化原则，探究高校学生管理法治化道路。     

提高企业家物质激励水平的理论思考

企业家作为社会阶层一特殊群体,必须取得与其业绩相对应的报酬。文章试图从委托-代理理论、人力资本理论、新古典经济增长理论和能力本位制理论等视角分析提高企业家物质激励现有水平的必要性。     

Data tilting for time series

Summary. We develop a general methodology for tilting time series data. Attention is focused on a large class of regression problems, where errors are expressed through autoregressive processes. The class has a range of important applications and in the context of our work may be used to illustrate the application of tilting methods to interval estimation in regression, robust statistical inference and estimation subject to constraints. The method can be viewed as 'empirical likelihood with nuisance parameters'.