Energy modelling: A new challenge for management science

The Arab oil embargo in 1973 and the subsequent price rises and production restrictions have given birth to a distinct branch within Management Science: energy modelling. This paper gives a critical and selective review on energy modelling, an industry which though thriving in an era of general economic anxiety, is showing signs of arrogant immaturity. After giving a historical background, the paper classifies energy models into three groups: open loop demand or supply models; energy closed loop models; energy-economy closed loop models. For each group the problem area is analysed and some illustrative examples are described. In the last sections, an attempt is made to sum up the experience that has been gained with energy modelling: the basic deficiencies, the impact of this activity on policy formulation and its position within Management Science. It is concluded that energy models, though very poor forecasting devices, can be very useful to policy makers as tools for analysis; energy model developers must convince potential model users and for that purpose they can benefit immensely from the 35-year-long experience accumulated by their colleagues in Management Science.     

Large scale communication networks—Design and analysis

The paper discusses the problem of design and analysis of large scale communication systems. An iterative process, composed of a minimum cost network design algorithm and a network performance algorithm, is presented for the solution of these problems. Computational considerations, using these algorithms, are discussed.     

The use of strategic planning techniques in the United Kingdom

In this paper some of the techniques available for strategic planning are reviewed. Four techniques are presented, the experience curve, the growth-share matrix, the directional policy matrix and the PIMS program. The results of a survey into the use of these techniques in the United Kingdom are also presented.     

The family caregiving career: implications for community-based long-term care practice and policy

Informal (i.e., unpaid) long-term care for disabled older adults is often chronic, but it is only recently that research has considered the longitudinal implications of family caregiving. In particular, investigators have conceptualized caregiving as a "career," and within the caregiving career, a number of diverse trajectories and transitions can occur. Following a summary of these findings, this paper considers how longitudinal caregiving research can influence and potentially address key policy and practice concerns, especially in the delivery and support of community-based long-term care (CBLTC) services. It is suggested that with the refinement of the informal long-term care literature, existing policy and practice to support caregiving families can be similarly advanced.     

近四十年来韩国《史记》研究综述（1971—2010）

《史记》是中国史学中一部继往开来的不朽巨著,作者司马迁开创的以人物为中心的纪传体,在汉代以后一直是历代王朝正史所沿用的体制。司马迁修《史记》,不仅尊重历史事实,秉笔直书,而且还注意语言文字的锤炼,文句优美。他将叙事、抒情、说理的不同文体有机地综合起来,达到思想上、艺术上的高度统一,为后代文史创作提供了范例。《史记》不仅是中国纪传体史书的开创者,而且对后世的散文、小说、戏曲都产生了深远的影响。同时它也早已流传至国外,在汉文化圈国家中亦有不小的影响。其中,《史记》传入韩国,特别受到韩国知识界人士的关心和推崇,为韩国学术界所重视。到了1960年代中期,随着国家经济的发展,韩国整个社会的发展进入了一个历史的新时期,不仅国家面貌发生了根本性变化,学术文化事业也步入正轨,同时韩国学术界对中国学术文化的关心及研究也重新得到了高度重视。正是在这样的基础上,韩国学者对《史记》的翻译和研究有了较大的进展,在传播、普及和通俗化方面作出了积极的贡献。本文除简述《史记》在韩国的流传背景外,还分别论述自1971年至2010年近四十年来《史记》在当代韩国的翻译介绍与研究现状,并对其研究成果上存在的一些不足和空缺作一番客观的评价。     

A methodological approach to strategic petroleum reserves

Energy constitutes a small fraction of the production inputs in the economy, yet the rigidity imposed by the short and medium term inability to substitute energy with other production factors in case of an energy shortage, requires the establishment of safeguard mechanisms to ensure sufficient energy supply during an emergency. These safeguards usually take the form of strategic energy reserves. A methodological approach is presented here, relating the level of strategic petroleum reserves, the decision variable, with the costs associated with their storage and the economic losses incurred by an energy shortage. This approach is based on the use of a decision tree, to portray emergency scenarios. Each scenario, a branch of the decision tree, can be evaluated in terms of a cost function which includes the inventory procurement and maintenance cost and the shortage cost inflicted by a petroleum shortfall.     

Dementia Caregiving Outcomes: The Impact of Caregiving Onset,Cognitive Impairment and Behavioral Problems

With a projected increase in the prevalence of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and related dementias, family caregiving is steadily increasing. Caring for an individual with AD is characterized as a “career,” and within this career are a number of key transitions, including the onset of caregiving. Research reveals a number of negative emotional health outcomes for AD caregivers, including depression and role overload, but less research has examined the influence of key transitions on the emotional adaptation of caregivers. The purpose of this study is to examine how different patterns of caregiving onset (gradual and abrupt) impact emotional health outcomes for AD caregivers. This study also explores how care-recipient cognitive impairment and behavioral problems moderate these relationships. Cross-sectional, quantitative data from 100 caregivers completing self-administered surveys were used. A series of one-way ANOVAs and multiple regression analyses were conducted to address study aims. Results indicate that care-recipient cognition and behavioral problems moderated the relationship between caregiving onset and emotional health outcomes for caregivers who experienced a more abrupt entry into the caregiving role. Results suggest the importance of considering different onset transitions and moderating factors within the caregiving career to target clinical interventions. Implications for social work practice are discussed.     

The genetic connections of Alzheimer's disease: An emerging source of caregiver stress

The purpose of this study was to expand and refine current theoretical conceptualization of dementia caregiving by identifying and analyzing new potential sources of stress. A qualitative analysis of unsolicited letters (N=51) written by family caregivers of persons diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease (AD) was conducted. Content analysis of the data confirmed that providing care for persons diagnosed with AD could impart emotional, physiological, and financial stress on caregivers. The data also revealed an emerging source of stress for family caregivers—fears and uncertainties regarding possible genetic connections between family caregivers and relatives suffering from AD. These results strongly suggest that concerns with genetic connections should be included in theoretical models of stress and dementia caregiving. Implications include the need for increased dissemination of information regarding genetic connections and AD, as well as increased support for family members if and when genetic connections are discovered.     

Route first—Cluster second methods for vehicle routing

In this paper we consider route first—cluster second methods for the vehicle routing problem. Extensions to the basic method both to improve its effectiveness and to enable it to cope with practical constraints are described. Computational results are given for the method applied to standard vehicle routing problems drawn from the literature.