A Risk-Based Method for Modeling Traffic Fatalities

We describe a risk-based analytical framework for estimating traffic fatalities that combines the probability of a crash and the probability of fatality in the event of a crash. As an illustrative application, we use the methodology to explore the role of vehicle mix and vehicle prevalence on long-run fatality trends for a range of transportation growth scenarios that may be relevant to developing societies. We assume crash rates between different road users are proportional to their roadway use and estimate case fatality ratios (CFRs) for the different vehicle-vehicle and vehicle-pedestrian combinations. We find that in the absence of road safety interventions, the historical trend of initially rising and then falling fatalities observed in industrialized nations occurred only if motorization was through car ownership. In all other cases studied (scenarios dominated by scooter use, bus use, and mixed use), traffic fatalities rose monotonically. Fatalities per vehicle had a falling trend similar to that observed in historical data from industrialized nations. Regional adaptations of the model validated with local data can be used to evaluate the impacts of transportation planning and safety interventions, such as helmets, seat belts, and enforcement of traffic laws, on traffic fatalities.     

“A stitch in time”: group work during the covid-19 scare in the Nicobar Islands,India

ABSTRACT

When India suddenly went into its first coronavirus-induced nationwide lockdown in March 2020, several members of a historically isolated indigenous community in the eastern Indian ocean- the Nicobarese, began to panic. Their leaders came together and formed a group to boost community solidarity and helped the vulnerable indigenes to safely navigate through the crisis. In these uncertain times of Covid-19, when the “modern” world appears more fissured than ever, leaving its “others” to fend for themselves; the Nicobarese’s group has set an example for everyone to follow.     

Bayesian inference for stable Lévy–driven stochastic differential equations with high‐frequency data

In this paper, we consider parametric Bayesian inference for stochastic differential equations driven by a pure‐jump stable Lévy process, which is observed at high frequency. In most cases of practical interest, the likelihood function is not available; hence, we use a quasi‐likelihood and place an associated prior on the unknown parameters. It is shown under regularity conditions that there is a Bernstein–von Mises theorem associated to the posterior. We then develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for Bayesian inference, and assisted with theoretical results, we show how to scale Metropolis–Hastings proposals when the frequency of the data grows, in order to prevent the acceptance ratio from going to zero in the large data limit. Our algorithm is presented on numerical examples that help verify our theoretical findings.     

Are corrupt acts contagious?: Evidence from the United States

This paper adds to the literature by shedding new light on the causes of corruption. Specifically, we provide evidence on the extent to which corruption might be contagious. In other words, what is the extent to which a demonstration effect is at play at inducing corrupt acts? Using state-level U.S. data over the 1995–2004 period, the results show that the effect of neighboring corruption is positive and statistically significant in all cases, implying that corruption does appear to be contagious. Specifically, a 10% increase in corruption in neighboring states appears to increase corruption in a state by about 4–11%. Of the different types of government activity, the size of defense and non-defense federal sectors in a state seem to have opposite effects on corruption, with the former contributing to corruption and the latter serving as a deterrent. The size of the state and local governments does not seem to be relevant. Of the variables controlling for detection and punishment of corrupt individuals, greater corrections employment reduces corruption, while greater judicial employment seems to increase corruption. Changes in the police force do not seem to have a statistically significant impact. These findings generally hold when we control for the disproportionate effects of the Washington, DC area and when a pooled data set is estimated. Contagion effects are also found for other crimes. Policy implications are discussed.     

The Local Life of Nationhood

What characterises many studies that invoke the local can be described as a logic of transcendence. This logic of transcendence does not reject nor disregard the local. Rather, it affirms the centrality of the local. At the same time, the focus is on how the local is historically transcended into higher levels of generality and abstraction; the argument is that only through attention to these higher levels that the meanings of the local become clear. In contrast, the other local which we refer to in this essay is a set of practices which emerges in intimate relationship to nationalism, which in some ways even sustains nationalism, even though the places it produces cannot be understood within the same logic of transcendence. At times, this other local refers to the political and conceptual practices that emerged at the limits of the abstract time and space that constituted nationalism. At other times, this local refers to the marginal in order to represent nationhood anew. Nationhood does not exhaust, sublate or transcend this local; rather, this local continues to live, in the era of nationhood, not so much outside the national, but beyond and alongside it. This other local is explored in this essay by discussing the cases of Germany and India.     

Smoking Prevalence and Antismoking Regulations in Transition Countries

As a number of new nations emerged in the early nineties, there has been a spurt in regulatory initiatives in transition countries toward nation building and socio-economic reforms. A key prerequisite to policy changes is an understanding of the related patterns and policies. This paper provides an overview of the smoking trends in transition nations, broken by gender and age, and the antismoking policies in place. In particular, four different types of non-price policies are studied. Comparisons with the rest of the world show that transition countries do not fare badly in terms of implementing antismoking policies and are, in fact, better in some cases than other countries. However, greater smoking prevalence for some population subgroups in transition nations suggests that either some other socio-economic factors influencing smoking prevalence might be at play or there might be some enforcement issues with the policies in place.