Risk and Systems Theory

The last few decades have seen increasingly widespread use of risk assessment and management techniques as aids in making complex decisions. However, despite the progress that has been made in risk science, there still remain numerous examples of risk-based decisions and conclusions that have caused great controversy. In particular, there is a great deal of debate surrounding risk assessment: the role of values and ethics and other extra-scientific factors, the efficacy of quantitative versus qualitative analysis, and the role of uncertainty and incomplete information. Many of the epistemological and methodological issues confronting risk assessment have been explored in general systems theory, where techniques exist to manage such issues. However, the use of systems theory and systems analysis tools is still not widespread in risk management. This article builds on the Alachlor risk assessment case study of Brunk, Haworth, and Lee to present a systems-based view of the risk assessment process. The details of the case study are reviewed and the authors' original conclusions regarding the effects of extra-scientific factors on risk assessment are discussed. Concepts from systems theory are introduced to provide a mechanism with which to illustrate these extra-scientific effects The role of a systems study within a risk assessment is explained, resulting in an improved view of the problem formulation process The consequences regarding the definition of risk and its role in decision making are then explored.     

Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of a Bivariate Gaussian–Weibull Distribution and an Introduction to the Associated Pseudo-truncated Weibull

Two important wood properties are stiffness (modulus of elasticity or MOE) and bending strength (modulus of rupture or MOR). In the past, MOE has often been modeled as a Gaussian and MOR as a lognormal or a two or three parameter Weibull. It is well known that MOE and MOR are positively correlated. To model the simultaneous behavior of MOE and MOR for the purposes of wood system reliability calculations, we introduce a bivariate Gaussian–Weibull distribution and the associated pseudo-truncated Weibull. We use asymptotically efficient likelihood methods to obtain an estimator of the parameter vector of the bivariate Gaussian–Weibull, and then obtain the asymptotic distribution of this estimator.     

Diversification and win rate in NLRB certification elections

This research examined industrial diversification patterns and win rates within the 1977–1979, 1983–1985 and 1992–1994 periods for all NLRB certification elections of the 30 most active unions in 1977–1979. We found significant change in diversification and little change in average win rates over the study period. The general trend was less total diversification and more unrelated diversification in 1992–1994 relative to 1983–1985 and 1977–1979. Total diversification and election frequency had no impact on win rates. However, related diversification had a significant positive influence on union win rates for elections recorded outside unions’ core organizing industries.     

Token resistance to sexual intercourse and consent to unwanted sexual intercourse: College students’ dating experiences in three countries

The purposes of this study were to extend the research conducted by Muehlenhard and her colleagues (e.g., Muehlen‐hard & Hollabaugh, 1988) on token resistance to sex and to consider a second form of sexual miscommunication, consent to unwanted sex. We examined the incidence of these forms of sexual miscommunication among both women and men and in three different cultures: the United States, Russia, and Japan. Survey data were collected from 1,519 unmarried college students (970 from the U.S., 327 from Russia, and 222 from Japan). Contrary to the stereotype that only women engage in token resistance to sex, men also reported that they had been in situations in which they had said no to sex while desiring it. In the U.S. only, a greater proportion of men than women have engaged in token resistance to sex. Rates for consent to unwanted sex also varied by gender and culture. American women had the highest rate of consent to unwanted sex. The importance of collecting cross‐cultural data on sexuality and intimacy is discussed.     

Internal knowledge generation: the research laboratory and innovative productivity in the pharmaceutical industry

As firms face increasing pressures associated with new forms of knowledge-based competition, researchers have begun to focus on knowledge acquisition strategies to the point of ignoring knowledge creation strategies. This paper investigates the impact of research centers in the pharmaceutical industry upon this neglected form of knowledge creation–innovation productivity. We find that firms with separate research facilities are more innovative than firms without such facilities. The results diverge when locational distance of the laboratory is considered for patent versus drug innovations, and vary across diversification types. These findings suggest that managers and researchers need to consider the relationship between the research center and corporate headquarters — and the role of the corporate headquarters — when developing knowledge generation strategies.     

A POLITICAL ECONOMY THEORY OF PARTIAL DECENTRALIZATION

We revisit the classic problem of tax competition in the context of federal nations, and derive a positive theory of partial decentralization. A capital poor median voter chooses to use redistributive capital taxes to provide public goods. The expectation of high capital taxes, however, results in a small capital stock which lowers returns to redistribution. The median voter therefore wants to commit to a lower level of capital taxes. She does so by setting a partial degree of decentralization in the Constitution. The equilibrium degree of decentralization balances the positive effect of tax competition on capital taxes with the loss in redistribution that results. We show that the degree of decentralization is nonmonotonic in inequality, increasing in the redistributive efficiency of public good provision, and decreasing in capital productivity. When public goods are heterogeneous in their capacity to transfer funds, all voters agree that goods with high redistributive capacity should be decentralized.     

Equity and sexual satisfaction in recently married couples

This study was designed to determine whether or not equity considerations are important in couples' sexual relations. To answer this question, 53 newlywed couples were interviewed about their sexual relationships. Two main hypotheses were tested: (a) Men and women who feel their relationships are equitable will be more content (less distressed) than people who feel either overbenefited or underbenefited. (b) Men and women who feel equitably treated will have more satisfying sexual relations than those who feel either underbenefited or overbenefited. Some support for both hypotheses was obtained. Specifically, couples in equitable relationships were more content with their relationships and with their lives in general than other couples. In addition, equitably treated men and women were more satisfied with their sexual relationships overall than were other couples. They felt most loving and close after sex and assumed their partner felt that way too. While equitable couples did not say they felt more satisfied immediately after a sexual encounter than did other couples, they believed their partners were unusually satisfied. Reasons why these findings, though providing some support for the equity paradigm, must be interpreted with caution are discussed.