Creating a reference to a complex emergency situation using time series methods: war in Guinea-Bissau 1998-1999

Impacts of complex emergencies or relief interventions have often been evaluated by absolute mortality compared to international standardized mortality rates. A better evaluation would be to compare with local baseline mortality of the affected populations. A projection of population-based survival data into time of emergency or intervention based on information from before the emergency may create a local baseline reference. We find a log-transformed Gaussian time series model where standard errors of the estimated rates are included in the variance to have the best forecasting capacity. However, if time-at-risk during the forecasted period is known then forecasting might be done using a Poisson time series model with overdispersion. Whatever, the standard error of the estimated rates must be included in the variance of the model either in an additive form in a Gaussian model or in a multiplicative form by overdispersion in a Poisson model. Data on which the forecasting is based must be modelled carefully concerning not only calendar-time trends but also periods with excessive frequency of events (epidemics) and seasonal variations to eliminate residual autocorrelation and to make a proper reference for comparison, reflecting changes over time during the emergency. Hence, when modelled properly it is possible to predict a reference to an emergency-affected population based on local conditions. We predicted childhood mortality during the war in Guinea-Bissau 1998-1999. We found an increased mortality in the first half-year of the war and a mortality corresponding to the expected one in the last half-year of the war.     

Contributors to disruption and dissolution of older-child adoptions

According to recent evidence, adoptive placements that do not work out are increasingly common. This article reviews research on rates of, and contributors to, adoption and "foster-adoption" disruptions and dissolutions. Implications for practice are included.     

Learning discrete decomposable graphical models via constraint optimization

Statistical model learning problems are traditionally solved using either heuristic greedy optimization or stochastic simulation, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo or simulated annealing. Recently, there has been an increasing interest in the use of combinatorial search methods, including those based on computational logic. Some of these methods are particularly attractive since they can also be successful in proving the global optimality of solutions, in contrast to stochastic algorithms that only guarantee optimality at the limit. Here we improve and generalize a recently introduced constraint-based method for learning undirected graphical models. The new method combines perfect elimination orderings with various strategies for solution pruning and offers a dramatic improvement both in terms of time and memory complexity. We also show that the method is capable of efficiently handling a more general class of models, called stratified/labeled graphical models, which have an astronomically larger model space.     

Home study methods for evaluating prospective resource families: history, current challenges, and promising approaches

Every state requires a home study before the placement of foster children for adoption. This article examines the history of home studies, presents results from expert interviews on the changing processes and purposes of home studies, and explores current challenges for the field. The article also introduces the Structured Analysis Family Evaluation (SAFE), a uniform home study format that encourages consistent family evaluations across workers, agencies, and jurisdictions. The article clarifies how SAFE may address challenges facing foster care and adoption practice.     

Decomposing the Male/Female Wage Gap: Within and Between Establishment Differences

ABSTRACT: Using Norwegian data from interviews with about 3,500 employees in 759 establishments, the male-female wage differential is decomposed into its between and within establishment components. In the private sector, the gross wage differential of 23 percent is reduced to 13 by checking for human capital and job characteristics, and to 8 by (also) checking for industry and establishment affiliation. Only this within-establishment differential will be affected by equal pay and comparable worth legislation. In the public sector the gross wage gap between men and women is smaller (17 percent). The inter-establishment component is very small, probably due to centralized wage setting and standardized pay schemes. This has not, however, affected the within-establishment differential which is as large as in the private sector.     

Robust Poisson likelihood estimation for frailty Cox models: A simulation study

Frailty models can be fit as mixed-effects Poisson models after transforming time-to-event data to the Poisson model framework. We assess, through simulations, the robustness of Poisson likelihood estimation for Cox proportional hazards models with log-normal frailties under misspecified frailty distribution. The log-gamma and Laplace distributions were used as true distributions for frailties on a natural log scale. Factors such as the magnitude of heterogeneity, censoring rate, number and sizes of groups were explored. In the simulations, the Poisson modeling approach that assumes log-normally distributed frailties provided accurate estimates of within- and between-group fixed effects even under a misspecified frailty distribution. Non-robust estimation of variance components was observed in the situations of substantial heterogeneity, large event rates, or high data dimensions.     

Comparative Journalism Research – An Overview

This overview focuses on the most common type of comparative journalism research, which is cross‐national comparative research. The overview presents a typology for different types of comparative journalism research, based on whether the research interest is in journalism as an activity or as a product; and, in the case of journalism as an activity, whether the interest is in the system level, the organizational level, or the individual level of journalism. The overview finds that the analysis of journalism on the individual level and of journalism as a product are the most common types of comparative research, whereas comparative analysis of journalism on the organizational level is much under‐studied.     

Preparation,support, and satisfaction of adoptive families in agency and independent adoptions

Information gathered from over 1000 adoptions in the fourth year of a prospective study of adoptions finds satisfaction levels to be quite high, with those families adopting through private agencies to feel best prepared and satisfied. Differences by adoption auspice are detailed and discussed.The senior authors are Co-Principal Investigators of the California Long-range Adoption Study. This research was supported by the Child Welfare Research Center, Family Welfare Research Group, University of California at Berkeley, through a grant from the Children's Bureau, Administration for Children and Families, Department of Health and Human Services. The authors wish to thank the families for their participation. Please address correspondence to Mary Berry at the Center for Child Welfare, UTA School of Social Work, P.O. Box 19129, Arlington, Texas 76019.     

Money as a Tool for Negotiating Separateness and Connectedness in the Therapeutic Relationship

It is nothing new to suggest that money has meaning. Whether or not one accepts Freud's (1908)linkage of money and feces, within our culture money is frequently seen as a direct pathway to feelings of power, agency, self-directedness, and personal satisfaction. Trachtman (1999) states, Money, psychologically speaking, is our projection onto coins, bills, bank accounts, and other financial instruments of our beliefs, hopes, and fears about how those things will affect who we are, what will happen to us, and how we will be treated by others or by ourselves...(Trachtman, 1999, p. 283). Yet this material is often unavailable for therapeutic exploration or understanding until it explodes into the therapy, often in unmanageable and countertherapeutic ways. This article will look at some of the ways in which money can be utilized to negotiate the ever-changing tensions between self and other, object and subject, intrapyschic and interpersonal, connection and separation that appear in every relationship. In particular, it will explore some ways that money issues within the therapeutic relationship can be turned into significant tools for understanding and working with anxieties about connection and separateness, both within and outside the therapeutic dyad.