Understanding the planner’s role in lookahead construction planning

Capacity planning is instrumental in production planning as the variability witnessed in construction projects complicates the planner’s role in achieving a balance between weekly task load and available resources. The purpose of this article is to assess the effects of capacity planning on a project’s time and cost performance and to inform planners on the pitfalls of uninformed capacity planning. A simulation model is developed to test several project scenarios against different capacity planning methods. Cost, time and planning quality measures are developed to track project’s performance throughout the construction period. Results show that the planner’s choice of capacity planning method and the type of project both affect a project’s cost and duration. Interestingly, informed planners who are aware of a project’s characteristics are able to achieve the best balance between weekly load and capacity. They are able to reduce incurred costs wasted on idle resources without significantly affecting the construction period.     

Religiousness and Subjective Well-Being Among Israeli-Palestinian College Students: Direct or Mediated Links?

Espousing a positive psychology orientation, this study aimed to explore the links between religiousness and subjective well-being, and test whether social support and self-control mediate the expected associations between these two variables. Participants were 264 Israeli-Palestinian college students, who were asked to provide demographic information and complete measures of religiousness, social support, self-control, subjective happiness, positive emotions and negative emotions. We found that religiousness was positively correlated with both subjective happiness and positive emotions, but no significant correlation was found between religiousness and negative emotions. Both social support and self-control partially mediated the links between religiousness and both subjective happiness and positive emotions. The findings of the study, as well as its implications and limitations, are discussed.     

Labor Supply by Farm Operators Under “Decoupled” Farm Program Payments

As part of 1996 legislation, the U.S. began paying farmers production flexibility contract payments designed to be somewhat decoupled from current production decisions. In the labor-leisure model, decoupled payments would be expected to only have a wealth effect, but coupled payments would be expected to have both a substitution and a wealth effect. In this paper, the impacts of the decoupled payments and other government payments on both farm and off-farm labor allocations for farm operators are considered using data from the Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS). Results indicate that government payments tend to increase the hours operators work on their farm and decrease the hours they work off the farm. This is true whether the payments come from programs which tie payments to current year production, or not.JEL Classification: D13, J22, Q12, Q22The authors are agricultural economists with the Economic Research Service (USDA). The views expressed here do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.     

Effect of agricultural policy on succession decisions of farm households

Policymakers, economists, and researchers have recently been interested in assessing the impact of farm program payments on the growth and survival of farm businesses. Planning for succession is an integral part of managing a farm business. This study uses farm-level data to investigate the impact of government farm policy and farm growth on both succession decisions and the likelihood of intra-family transfers of the farm business. Results indicate that succession decisions are significantly influenced by government farm policy, farm wealth, age, and educational attainment of current farm operators. Results show that off-farm work by operators and spouses and regional location are positively correlated with non-family farm succession decisions. On the other hand, farm ownership, educational attainment, and marital status of the operator increase the likelihood of family-based succession decisions. However, in the presence of retirement income from other sources such as pension, parents are less likely to have a family successor.

Minimum cost linear trend-free 12-run fractional factorial designs

Time trend resistant fractional factorial experiments have often been based on regular fractionated designs where several algorithms exist for sequencing their runs in minimum number of factor-level changes (i.e. minimum cost) such that main effects and/or two-factor interactions are orthogonal to and free from aliasing with the time trend, which may be present in the sequentially generated responses. On the other hand, only one algorithm exists for sequencing runs of the more economical non-regular fractional factorial experiments, namely Angelopoulos et al. [1 P. Angelopoulos, H. Evangelaras, and C. Koukouvinos, Run orders for efficient two-level experimental plans with minimum factor level changes robust to time trends, J. Statist. Plann. Inference 139 (2009), pp. 3718–3724. doi: 10.1016/j.jspi.2009.05.002[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]]. This research studies sequential factorial experimentation under non-regular fractionated designs and constructs a catalog of 8 minimum cost linear trend-free 12-run designs (of resolution III) in 4 up to 11 two-level factors by applying the interactions-main effects assignment technique of Cheng and Jacroux [3 C.S. Cheng and M. Jacroux, The construction of trend-free run orders of two-level factorial designs, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 83 (1988), pp. 1152–1158. doi: 10.1080/01621459.1988.10478713[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]] on the standard 12-run Plackett–Burman design, where factor-level changes between runs are minimal and where main effects are orthogonal to the linear time trend. These eight 12-run designs are non-orthogonal but are more economical than the linear trend-free designs of Angelopoulos et al. [1 P. Angelopoulos, H. Evangelaras, and C. Koukouvinos, Run orders for efficient two-level experimental plans with minimum factor level changes robust to time trends, J. Statist. Plann. Inference 139 (2009), pp. 3718–3724. doi: 10.1016/j.jspi.2009.05.002[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]], where they can accommodate larger number of two-level factors in smaller number of experimental runs. These non-regular designs are also more economical than many regular trend-free designs. The following will be provided for each proposed systematic design:

• (1) The run order in minimum number of factor-level changes.

• (2) The total number of factor-level changes between the 12 runs (i.e. the cost).

• (3) The closed-form least-squares contrast estimates for all main effects as well as their closed-form variance–covariance structure.

In addition, combined designs of each of these 8 designs that can be generated by either complete or partial foldover allow for the estimation of two-factor interactions involving one of the factors (i.e. the most influential).     

The Effectiveness of Multistage Ranked Set Sampling in Stratifying the Population

The spectral analysis of Gaussian linear time-series processes is usually based on uni-frequential tools because the spectral density functions of degree 2 and higher are identically zero and there is no polyspectrum in this case. In finite samples, such an approach does not allow the resolution of closely adjacent spectral lines, except by using autoregressive models of excessively high order in the method of maximum entropy. In this article, multi-frequential periodograms designed for the analysis of discrete and mixed spectra are defined and studied for their properties in finite samples. For a given vector of frequencies ω, the sum of squares of the corresponding trigonometric regression model fitted to a time series by unweighted least squares defines the multi-frequential periodogram statistic IM(ω). When ω is unknown, it follows from the properties of nonlinear models whose parameters separate (i.e., the frequencies and the cosine and sine coefficients here) that the least-squares estimator of frequencies is obtained by maximizing I ^M(ω). The first-order, second-order and distribution properties of I ^M(ω) are established theoretically in finite samples, and are compared with those of Schuster's uni-frequential periodogram statistic. In the multi-frequential periodogram analysis, the least-squares estimator of frequencies is proved to be theoretically unbiased in finite samples if the number of periodic components of the time series is correctly estimated. Here, this number is estimated at the end of a stepwise procedure based on pseudo-Flikelihood ratio tests. Simulations are used to compare the stepwise procedure involving I ^M(ω) with a stepwise procedure using Schuster's periodogram, to study an approximation of the asymptotic theory for the frequency estimators in finite samples in relation to the proximity and signal-to-noise ratio of the periodic components, and to assess the robustness of I ^M(ω) against autocorrelation in the analysis of mixed spectra. Overall, the results show an improvement of the new method over the classical approach when spectral lines are adjacent. Finally, three examples with real data illustrate specific aspects of the method, and extensions (i.e., unequally spaced observations, trend modeling, replicated time series, periodogram matrices) are outlined.     

Book Review: Islam in Contemporary Egypt: Civil Society vs. the State,by Denis J. Sullivan and Sana Abed-Kotob. Lynne Rienner Publishers,Boulder, CO, 1999

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations -     

Minimum Cost Linear Trend Free 2n-(n-k) Designs of Resolution IV

This article extends the resolution of time trend free designs for sequential 2^n-p experiments from III into IV and minimizes the number of factor level changes between runs (i.e., cost) by constructing a catalog of (2^k?2 ?1) minimum cost linear trend free resolution IV 2^n?(n?k) designs (2^k?2 ≤ n ≤ 2^k?1?2) from the full 2^k factorial experiment using the interactions-main effects assignment technique. Each systematic 2^n?(n?k) design in the catalog is economic in minimum number of factor level changes and allows for the estimation of all n main effects unbiased by either the linear time trend (which may be present in the 2^n?(n?k) sequentially generated responses) or the non negligible two-factor interactions. This article provides for each 2^n?(n?k) design: (1) the defining relation or the alias structure; (2) the k independent generators for sequencing the 2^n?(n?k) runs by the generalized foldover scheme; and (3) the minimum cost represented by the total number of factor level changes between the 2^n?(n?k) runs. All k main effects of the 2^k experiment are excluded from the selection assignment process due to their nonlinear time trend resistance as well as excluding a total of (2^k?1 –k +1) interactions violating the resolution IV requirement.