An Ecological Model for Quantitative Risk Assessment for Schistosomiasis: The Case of a Patchy Environment in the Coastal Tropical Area of Northeastern Brazil

We developed a stochastic model for quantitative risk assessment for the Schistosoma mansoni (SM) parasite, which causes an endemic disease of public concern. The model provides answers in a useful format for public health decisions, uses data and expert opinion, and can be applied to any landscape where the snail Biomphalaria glabrata is the main intermediate host (South and Central America, the Caribbean, and Africa). It incorporates several realistic and case‐specific features: stage‐structured parasite populations, periodic praziquantel (PZQ) drug treatment for humans, density dependence, extreme events (prolonged rainfall), site‐specific sanitation quality, environmental stochasticity, monthly rainfall variation, uncertainty in parameters, and spatial dynamics. We parameterize the model through a real‐world application in the district of Porto de Galinhas (PG), one of the main touristic destinations in Brazil, where previous studies identified four parasite populations within the metapopulation. The results provide a good approximation of the dynamics of the system and are in agreement with our field observations, i.e., the lack of basic infrastructure (sanitation level and health programs) makes PG a suitable habitat for the persistence and growth of a parasite metapopulation. We quantify the risk of SM metapopulation explosion and quasi‐extinction and the time to metapopulation explosion and quasi‐extinction. We evaluate the sensitivity of the results under varying scenarios of future periodic PZQ treatment (based on the Brazilian Ministry of Health's plan) and sanitation quality. We conclude that the plan might be useful to slow SM metapopulation growth but not to control it. Additional investments in better sanitation are necessary.     

Ports modernization and its influence on trade unions

The restructuring of production resulting from the Port Modernization Law (Law 8.630/90) caused significant changes in work organization of Brazilian Ports. In the case of Mucuripe (Fortaleza, Ceará), in particular, the changes were very intense as Mucuripe is an old port that, before the Law, had labor regulation being governed by Trade Unions. This paper aims to present the perceptions of Union Representatives on the changes brought about by the Law on work organization in the port of Fortaleza, its influence in the organization and in the way the Unions deal with this new reality. Open and exploratory interviews were conducted with representatives of occasional labor workers registered in the Port of Fortaleza OGMO (Org?o Gestor de M?o de Obra, Labor Regulation Management). The analysis of the collected material in the interviews was based on the technique of content analysis proposed by Bardin (1979). Trade Unions have undergone a great loss of power and it has reflected in a relative inability to perform its function and to fight for the rights of the workers. The obvious Trade Unions weakness - a reduction of strikes and less unionized workers - reflects the dominating ideology of capital.     

The bivariate alpha-skew-normal distribution

In this paper, we propose a new bivariate distribution, namely bivariate alpha-skew-normal distribution. The proposed distribution is very flexible and capable of generalizing the univariate alpha-skew-normal distribution as its marginal component distributions; it features a probability density function with up to two modes and has the bivariate normal distribution as a special case. The joint moment generating function as well as the main moments are provided. Inference is based on a usual maximum-likelihood estimation approach. The asymptotic properties of the maximum-likelihood estimates are verified in light of a simulation study. The usefulness of the new model is illustrated in a real benchmark data.     

Technology,Gender and Time: A Contribution to the Debate

Using the data collected from research carried out at two Portuguese universities, this article highlights the way university lecturers currently deal with space and time. Their professional activity is not externally subjected to a specific time geometry that defines their working day. Teaching and researching time–spaces are basically task oriented. Furthermore, university lecturers are increasingly requested to perform tasks in very short time periods in order to secure financial support. To a certain extent, this pressure upon their work is facilitated by the use of technology. However, technology also causes a profound reconfiguration of working times and spaces, especially because it allows lecturers to work at any time from anywhere. This not only renders university physical spaces and times virtual, but it also leads to the colonization of several other time–spaces of their social lives. This article analyses the ambivalence and difficulty of managing time–spaces, as described by the lecturers themselves, with the objective of providing a more accurate awareness of the implications of technology on their lives, as well as the hazards of the progressive externalization of academic work, particularly for women.     

A Comparison of Bayes Factors for Separated Models: Some Simulation Results

Some alternative Bayes Factors: Intrinsic, Posterior, and Fractional have been proposed to overcome the difficulties presented when prior information is weak and improper prior are used. Additional difficulties also appear when the models are separated or non nested. This article presents both simulation results and some illustrative examples analysis comparing these alternative Bayes factors to discriminate among the Lognormal, the Weibull, the Gamma, and the Exponential distributions. Simulation results are obtained for different sample sizes generated from the distributions. Results from simulations indicates that these alternative Bayes factors are useful for comparing non nested models. The simulations also show some similar behavior and that when both models are true they choose the simplest model. Some illustrative example are also presented.     

Politics−Bureaucracy Relationship in Bangladesh: Consequences for the Public Service Commission

The paper attempts to analyze the consequences of political pressure placed on the Public Service Commission (PSC) of Bangladesh. Through extensive literature review and empirical research, the authors conclude that the independence, efficiency and effectiveness of the PSC largely depend on the politics–administration relationship. Furthermore, this relationship is affected by regime types and it regulates the optimum functioning or malfunctioning of the institution.

A Systematic Review of the Assessment of Quality of Life in Adolescents

This study examined how the quality of life (QoL) affects an individual’s disaster preparedness behavior (PB); furthermore, it also considered and examined the mediating effects of trust in government (GT) and the moderating effects of self-efficacy (SE). One way analysis of variance (ANOVA) was applied to test the differences in QoL, GT, SE, and PB, by socio-demographic, and the study hypotheses were verified by using hierarchical regression analysis based on 1682 samples. The Johnson–Neyman technique was used to test the conditional effects of SE on QoL and PB. All the hypotheses presented in this study were supported: (1) QoL had a positive effect on PB; (2) QoL had a positive effect on GT; (3) GT had a positive effect on PB; (4) GT mediated the relationship between QoL and PB; (5) SE moderated the relationship between QoL and PB. Specifically, when SE was high, the positive relationship between QoL and PB increased; (6) SE moderated the relationship between GT and PB. Specifically, when SE was high, the positive relationship between GT and PB increased; and (7) SE moderated the indirect effect of QoL on PB. Specifically, when SE was high, the mediating effect of GT on the relationship between QoL and PB increased. This study makes significant contributions in terms of identifying the mechanisms of QoL on PB based on the moderated mediation model. Improving individuals’ QoL is not only an important societal goal, but also an effective way to enhance people’s positive behavioral outcomes. Therefore, QoL improvement should be considered in the top-level design of government policies, and it should also be regarded as an important indicator of government performance assessment.

     

The healthcare supply network: current state of the literature and research opportunities

Abstract

This literature review maps recent studies addressing supply chain management (SCM) in the healthcare sector through a systematic approach that synthesises 74 empirical studies (2006–2016). Our approach adopts a network lens to map the literature and offers key contributions to the field. First, we show that there is a lack of network level studies. Second, there is an imbalance of research attention regarding the various types of supply, namely health services, medicines, medical supplies and blood supply. Third, we underline the advantages of the network lens, indicating network actors and flows between those actors that need further research. Fourth, we show an alarming lack of theoretical lens in healthcare SCM studies and draw attention to the fact that even when explicitly adopting a theory, some studies show inconsistencies between theoretical lens and level of analysis. Ultimately, we offer a map of future research for healthcare SCM through a network lens in order to improve the understanding the complexities of the healthcare sector.     

Urban or rural fragments: which soil use in forest surroundings induces greater litter deposition?

Urban Ecosystems - The soil use in surroundings of forest remnants, as well as, variations in seasonality and rainfall totals from each year might influence the composition, structure, and...