Risk Analysis: Celebrating the Accomplishments and Embracing Ongoing Challenges

As part of the celebration of the 40th anniversary of the Society for Risk Analysis and Risk Analysis: An International Journal, this essay reviews the 10 most important accomplishments of risk analysis from 1980 to 2010, outlines major accomplishments in three major categories from 2011 to 2019, discusses how editors circulate authors’ accomplishments, and proposes 10 major risk-related challenges for 2020–2030. Authors conclude that the next decade will severely test the field of risk analysis.     

四川盆地中三叠世盐盆分布与演化特征研究

四川盆地卤水分布广泛，资源丰富, 早为世人所瞩目，中三叠统雷口坡组是四川盆地最早开采天然气和盐卤的层系之一。根据盆地雷口坡组大量钻井资料研究表明，盆地雷口坡组主要成盐期分别为雷三2 期和雷四2 期，在盆地东部和南部由于受到古隆起的影响，盐岩地层已被剥蚀难以保存，现今盐岩主要分布在开江古隆起和泸州古隆起的西部以及天井山古隆起的南部（华蓥山以西—龙门山以东的川西—川中地区）。印支运动对盆地雷口坡组盐岩在平面的迁移起着十分重要的作用，根据不同时期盐岩统计数据看，两期盐盆在平面上具有向西迁移、叠加的特征，其中川中的GS1 井就钻遇了这两期的盐岩。     

Design selection for strong orthogonal arrays

Strong orthogonal arrays (SOAs) were recently introduced and studied as a class of space‐filling designs for computer experiments. An important problem that has not been addressed in the literature is that of design selection for such arrays. In this article, we conduct a systematic investigation into this problem, and we focus on the most useful SOA(n,m,4,2 + )s and SOA(n,m,4,2)s. This article first addresses the problem of design selection for SOAs of strength 2+ by examining their three‐dimensional projections. Both theoretical and computational results are presented. When SOAs of strength 2+ do not exist, we formulate a general framework for the selection of SOAs of strength 2 by looking at their two‐dimensional projections. The approach is fruitful, as it is applicable when SOAs of strength 2+ do not exist and it gives rise to them when they do. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 47: 302–314; 2019 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada     

辛亥革命与早期共产党人的思想启蒙

辛亥革命是中华民族的一次伟大觉醒 ,是民族危机意识、救亡图存理念和民主革命思想的积聚和爆发 ,促进了爱国主义精神的空前高涨。早期共产党人一部分参加过辛亥革命 ,经历了辛亥革命的洗礼 ;一部分受到辛亥革命的深刻影响 ,接受了资产阶级民主革命思想 ,而后 ,又在反思辛亥革命和探索新出路的历程中 ,由民主主义者转变为共产主义者     

李觏遗存及祭祀述略

文章在查阅文献和实地考察的基础上，就抚州市区内李觏的遗存和历代祭祀情况作简要、客观的记述介绍，为李觏的研究者提供资料参照，其中，“龙马书院”过去少有提及，尤为值得关注。     

论经学对《汉书》义例的影响

经学对《汉书》的影响是深重的。经学对《汉书》义例的影响主要表现在两个方面：一是立名定目，依托经典；二是创立志表，弘扬经学。探讨经学对《汉书》的影响有助于解决一些史学问题。     

论艺术的社会性和审美理想

衡量艺术品质量的重要标准是社会性和审美理想的统一.两者的统一,首先表现为功利性和审美性的统一;其次是"再现"和"表现"的统一,"内容美"和"形式美"的统一;再次是社会性和审美性的统一.     

论老子关于幸福的思想

幸福是人类追求的目标之一,中国古代的思想家对幸福的阐释,不是从伦理层面进行的,而是从生存方面展开的.老子的幸福思想不仅仅是表述祸福的相互转化,而是致力于社会和谐的哲学思考,它对我们今天和谐社会建设,具有重要的借鉴作用.     

刘熙载楚辞学的研究方法

刘熙载在研究楚辞时,运用了以意逆志法、多重比较法、举借概括法等方法,从而形成了一套颇具特色的文学批评法。     

Local influence in multilevel models

The authors study the local influence of observations in multilevel regression models. To this end, they perturb simultaneously the variances, responses and design matrix. To measure the local change caused by these perturbations, they use generalized Cook statistics for the fixed and random parameter estimates. Closed form local influence measures also allow them to assess the joint influence of various observations. They suggest a simple computation method and illustrate their results using two examples.