Risk Analysis: Celebrating the Accomplishments and Embracing Ongoing Challenges

As part of the celebration of the 40th anniversary of the Society for Risk Analysis and Risk Analysis: An International Journal, this essay reviews the 10 most important accomplishments of risk analysis from 1980 to 2010, outlines major accomplishments in three major categories from 2011 to 2019, discusses how editors circulate authors’ accomplishments, and proposes 10 major risk-related challenges for 2020–2030. Authors conclude that the next decade will severely test the field of risk analysis.     

Sibling Conflict and Ineffective Parenting as Predictors of Adolescent Boys' Antisocial Behavior and Peer Difficulties: Additive and Interactional Effects

Extensive sibling conflict is predictive of multiple poor adjustment outcomes during adolescence and early adulthood, but the frequency and developmental impact of such conflict may be conditional on ineffective parenting. Thus, sibling conflict may add to or amplify the negative effects of ineffective parenting on adolescent boys' adjustment. Hypotheses in this study were that: (a) multiple informant measures of problematic parent–child relationships and of sibling conflict would form distinct constructs rather than a single negative family process construct, and (b) ineffective parenting, sibling conflict, and their interaction measured at ages 10 to 12 would predict boys' concurrent status and developmental trajectories for antisocial behavior and peer adjustment across a 4‐year span from ages 12 to 16. Confirmatory factor and latent growth modeling analyses were consistent with these hypotheses, demonstrating the important developmental impact of sibling conflict.     

More than Myth: The Developmental Significance of Romantic Relationships During Adolescence

Adolescents' romantic relationships have attracted popular interest, but, until recently, little scientific curiosity. Research has been impeded by erroneous assumptions that adolescent relationships are trivial and transitory, that they provide little information beyond measures of the influence of parent‐child and peer relationships, and that their impact is primarily associated with problems of behavior and adjustment. This article proposes that distinguishing five features of romantic relationships (involvement, partner selection, relationship content, quality, and cognitive and emotional processes) is essential to describing adolescents' relationships and their developmental significance. These distinctions also help to clarify the role of context, age‐related variations, and individual differences in the impact of romantic experiences. Research is needed to illuminate questions of how and under what conditions romantic relationships affect individual development and how romantic and other close relationships jointly influence developmental trajectories during adolescence.     

The Effects of E-journal Management Tools and Services on Serials Cataloging

E-journal management tools and services such as MARC record services, A-to-Z lists, and link resolvers are changing e-journal cataloging. This column explores these changes in the academic environment through interviews with ten librarians representing eight universities. Three areas of change in serials cataloging are explored: (1) changes to the MARC record, including how libraries are adding/creating MARC records for their catalogs, the number and type of MARC records being created and linking within MARC bibliographic and holdings records; (2) the manner in which serials catalogers are being informed of changes; and (3) the evolving role of the serials cataloger. Future trends and advice for evolving workflow practices conclude the discussion.     

Sampling Returns for Realized Variance Calculations: Tick Time or Transaction Time?

This article introduces a new model for transaction prices in the presence of market microstructure noise in order to study the properties of the price process on two different time scales, namely, transaction time where prices are sampled with every transaction and tick time where prices are sampled with every price change. Both sampling schemes have been used in the literature on realized variance, but a formal investigation into their properties has been lacking. Our empirical and theoretical results indicate that the return dynamics in transaction time are very different from those in tick time and the choice of sampling scheme can therefore have an important impact on the properties of realized variance. For RV we find that tick time sampling is superior to transaction time sampling in terms of mean-squared-error, especially when the level of noise, number of ticks, or the arrival frequency of efficient price moves is low. Importantly, we show that while the microstructure noise may appear close to IID in transaction time, in tick time it is highly dependent. As a result, bias correction procedures that rely on the noise being independent, can fail in tick time and are better implemented in transaction time.     

A circular-cone test for testing homogeneity against a simple tree order

Several methods exist for the problem of testing the equality of several treatments against the one-sided alternative that the treatments are better than the control. These methods include Dunnett's test, Bartholomew's likelihood-ratio test, the Abelson-Tukey-Schaafsma-Smid optimal-contrast test, and the multiple-contrast test of Mukerjee, Robertson, and Wright. A new test is proposed based on an approximation of the likelihood-ratio test of Bartholomew. This test involves using a circular cone in place of the alternative-hypothesis cone. The circular-cone test has excellent power characteristics similar to those of Bartholomew's test. Moreover, it has the advantages of being simpler to compute and may be used with unequal sample sizes.     

Working children: the health and safety issue

Recent evidence has emerged that in Britain, like the US, many children below the official minimum school leaving age, are working. In many cases, the work is illegal. Research in the US suggests that many working children risk accidents and other hazards to health. Evidence from Britain on the health and safety aspects of child labour is of a more fragmentary nature, but enough exists to suggest a need for greater vigilance.     

Beyond mere information transfer: The importance of a relational approach to market-related internal communication

Despite the significance of relationship management in any information provision or exchange, public relations scholarship has typically focused on examining the underlying internal communication processes from a transactional perspective. These processes are frequently associated with organizational information dissemination, overlooking other critical contents to make strategic decisions. This study draws market information processing into the debate about internal communication, providing a greater understanding of how a relational approach can improve market intelligence dissemination. Results show that an effective management of market knowledge requires the use of such an approach, which in turn, cultivates the shared interpretation of market information and innovation performance. The findings stimulate fresh discussion about the nature and development of internal communication knowledge and practice.