人力资源综合素质评价及区域分异研究——以陕西省为例

人口的综合素质是区域社会经济发展的根本保证,人口的规模、素质和结构与社会经济发展、生态安全有着密切的关系。本文构建了陕西省人力资源综合素质评价指标体系,运用因子分析法对影响人力资源综合素质的指标进行降维处理,确定了四个与人力资源素质密切相关的因子。分别是收入水平因子（LOIF：The Level Of Income Factor）、医疗条件因子（MCF：Medical Condition Factor）、科教文化因子（SECF：Science and Education and Cultural Factors）、非农产业因子（NAIF：Non-Agricultural Industries Factor）;并计算了各市在各因子上的得分,从而得到了人力资源综合评价指数（HREI：Hunlan Resources Evaluafion Index）;利用SPSS构建了因子与地区经济发展水平（GDP）间的逐步回归模型：运用系统聚类法将人力资源综合评价指数与影响因子分为4类;在ARCGIS支持下制作了陕西人力资源综合素质评价图．从而揭示了人力资源综合素质的空间差异。     

CIGARETTE TAXES AND THE MASTER SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT

In 1998, 46 states and the four major tobacco companies entered into the Master Settlement Agreement (MSA), which stipulated that the tobacco companies pay the states $206 billion over the next several years. Mean cigarette excise taxes rose substantially, nearly 90%, between 1998 and 2002. The goal of our empirical analysis is to assess whether the changes in cigarette excise taxes can be attributed to litigation brought by the states and the resulting settlements. Using a panel data difference-in-difference approach, the evidence suggests that litigation increased excise taxes: state cigarette excise taxes were approximately $0.10 higher post-MSA. (JEL H2, I1 )     

THE SUPPLY OF CHILDREN'S TIME TO DISABLED ELDERLY PARENTS

This study develops and tests a model of supply of children's time to disabled elderly parents, using data from the National Long-Term Care Survey. The model, which assumes strategic behavior among relatives, offers predictions about effects of changes in the price of paid personal care, parent's wealth, kid's wage rates, public in-kind subsidies of personal care, and parent's relative bargaining power on care provided by children. Although several statistically significant relationships are obtained, the evidence does not generally indicate that children's provision of care to parents is guided by a strategic bequest motive.     

广州市金融发展与经济增长互动关系的实证研究——基于空间计量经济学的分析方法

运用空间计量经济学的分析方法,对广州市金融发展与经济增长互动关系进行实证研究.研究结果表明：广州市和广东省其它城市在经济发展上相互促进,广州市存款量的增加能够有效地促进经济的增长,但贷款的利用效率不高,贷款量的增加并不能有效提高GDP值.因此,必须加大对信贷的指导力度,以促进经济的长远健康发展.     

BUILDING A PROBABLE ELECTORATE FROM PREELECTION POLLS: A TWO-STAGE APPROACH

Prominent among sources of nonsampling error in preelectionpolls are different methods of screening likely voters. Buildingon past research, we use National Election Studies data to constructa simple, practical, two-stage model of voter turnout. We comparethe performance of this model to alternative estimators, usingdata from the 1988 and 1992 presidential elections. By allowingfor truncated interviews with up to 20 percent of respondents,our two-stage model provides turnout estimates that are slightlymore accurate and significantly less expensive than traditionalmethods for screening likely voters.     

Infertility Counselling: The Need for a Psychosocial Perspective

Correspondence to Ken Daniels, Head of Department of Social Work, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand. Summary The expectation of the vast majority of young couples is thatat some stage they will ‘have’ children. Infertilitymeans that that expectation cannot be met and this has personal,couple and social implications. Infertility counselling hasfocused primarily on the psychological or emotional needs ofthe couple. This paper argues that a psychosocial perspectiveis needed, with increased emphasis being given to the socialend of the psychosocial continuum. A case study is presentedto illustrate the range of psychosocial issues that can ariseand suggestions are made regarding how these might be respondedto. These include: responding to the emotional needs of thecouple, responding to the couple and their networks, utilizingself-help and support groups, contributing to an effective teamapproach, using a multi-role approach, being clear about thedifferent components of counselling, and contributing to thesocial policy and ethical issues. Social workers, with theirpsychosocial perspective, are seen to have a unique contributionto make to a more holistic approach to infertility counselling.     

Integration of disciplines for applied scheduling: a workshop report

The purposes of this paper are, first, to introduce several concepts and definitions related to Theory of Constraints design and management of unbalanced lines and, second, to illustrate the concepts of productive and protective capacity and inventory in a constrained line. Drum-buffer-rope is the Theory-of-Constraints based scheduling mechanism used to manage throughput at constraint work stations and flow at non-constraint work stations. A small simulation model is given to illustrate the importance of protective capacity and protective inventory at non-constraint stations. The line consists of several stations with the centre station being the constraint station. The capacity of (and inventory at) non-constraint stations is varied during the simulation. Line output increases as inventory at non-constraint stations increases. This result is contrary to traditional teaching about line design which says that line output is a function solely of the capacity of the slowest station.     

A Reconviction Predictor for Probationers

Correspondence to Ken Pease, Professor of Criminology, University of Manchester, Faculty of Economic and Social Studies, Manchester M13 9PL. Summary This paper reports the development of a predictor of reconvictionsuitable for use with probationers. The predictor, based onthe Burgess method of prediction, was developed using a sampleof 750 probation cases and a prediction period of three years.Its predictive power is substantial, being of the same orderas that of the parole predictor (see Nuttall et al., 1977; Ward,1988). Despite the increasing emphasis on offence-focused work in theprobation service, the work of the service is not routinelyor comprehensively measured in terms of its alteration of criminalcareers. By detailing the development of the predictor, andwelcoming experimentation with it amongst individual area probationservices, it is hoped that this paper will encourage a morefocused consideration of the effect of probation supervisionon offending behaviour, and therein facilitate the incorporationof broader service quality issues within performance evaluation.