自然科学知识的积累对电子元器件产业发展的影响

假设研究活动存在与产品生命周期中的市场扩大现象相似的活跃化现象,按照时间序列对电子元器件领域的评审论文篇数和注册专利件数的增减情况进行了分析。由分析结果可知:在市场真正产生前,评审论文篇数和注册专利件数剧增;同时,在这些剧增的论文和专利中,有很多研究给商品化和商业化带来了巨大影响。这些与商品化和商业化有关的信息,不仅包括对产品制造业有用的信息,而且还包括对支撑产品制造业的设备产业同样有用的信息。因此,将本分析法作为考量新事业进入机会的客观方法推荐给大家。     

Endogenous Ranking and Equilibrium Lorenz Curve Across (ex ante) Identical Countries

This paper proposes a symmetry‐breaking model of trade with a (large but) finite number of (ex ante) identical countries and a continuum of tradeable goods, which differ in their dependence on local differentiated producer services. Productivity differences across countries arise endogenously through free entry to the local service sector in each country. In any stable equilibrium, the countries sort themselves into specializing in different sets of tradeable goods, and a strict ranking of countries in per capita income, TFP, and the capital‐labor ratio emerges endogenously. Furthermore, the distribution of country shares, the Lorenz curve, is unique and analytically solvable in the limit, as the number of countries grows unbounded. Using this limit as an approximation allows us to study what determines the shape of distribution, to perform various comparative statics, and to evaluate the welfare effects of trade.     

Financial Market Globalization,Symmetry‐Breaking,and Endogenous Inequality of Nations

This paper investigates the effects of financial market globalization on the inequality of nations. The world economy consists of inherently identical countries, which differ only in their levels of capital stock. Each country is represented by the standard overlapping generations model, modified only to incorporate credit market imperfection. An integration of financial markets affects the set of stable steady states, as it changes the balance between the equalizing force of the diminishing returns technology and the unequalizing force of the wealth‐dependent borrowing constraint. The model is tractable enough to allow for a complete characterization of the stable steady states. In the absence of the international financial market, the world economy has a unique steady state, which is symmetric and stable. In the presence of the international financial market, symmetry‐breaking occurs under some conditions. That is, the symmetric steady state loses its stability and stable asymmetric steady states come to exist. In the stable asymmetric steady states, the world economy is endogenously divided into the rich and poor countries; the borrowing constraints are binding in the poor but not in the rich; the world output is smaller, the rich are richer and the poor are poorer in any of the stable asymmetric steady states than in the (unstable) symmetric steady state.     

Estimation of the marginal survival time in the presence of dependent competing risks using inverse probability of censoring weighted (IPCW) methods

In medical studies, there is interest in inferring the marginal distribution of a survival time subject to competing risks. The Kyushu Lipid Intervention Study (KLIS) was a clinical study for hypercholesterolemia, where pravastatin treatment was compared with conventional treatment. The primary endpoint was time to events of coronary heart disease (CHD). In this study, however, some subjects died from causes other than CHD or were censored due to loss to follow-up. Because the treatments were targeted to reduce CHD events, the investigators were interested in the effect of the treatment on CHD events in the absence of causes of death or events other than CHD. In this paper, we present a method for estimating treatment group-specific marginal survival curves of time-to-event data in the presence of dependent competing risks. The proposed method is a straightforward extension of the Inverse Probability of Censoring Weighted (IPCW) method to settings with more than one reason for censoring. The results of our analysis showed that the IPCW marginal incidence for CHD was almost the same as the lower bound for which subjects with competing events were assumed to be censored at the end of all follow-up. This result provided reassurance that the results in KLIS were robust to competing risks.     

Growing Through Cycles

The neoclassical growth model focuses on factor accumulation as an engine of growth, while the neo-Schumpetarian growth model stresses innovation. This paper argues that these two views of growth may capture different phases of a single growth experience. In the model presented below, the balanced growth path is unstable and the economy achieves sustainable growth through cycles under an empirically plausible condition, perpetually moving back and forth between two phases. One phase is characterized by higher output growth, higher investment, no innovation, and a competitive market structure. The other phase is characterized by lower output growth, lower investment, high innovation, and a more monopolistic market structure. Both investment and innovation are essential in sustaining growth indefinitely, and yet they move in an asynchronized way; only one of them appears to play a dominant role in each phase. The economy grows faster along the cycles than along the Zunstable. balanced growth path.     

Efficiency and Equilibrium with Dynamic Increasing Aggregate Returns due to Demand Complementarities

When do dynamic nonconvexities at the disaggregate level translate into dynamic nonconvexities at the aggregate level? We address this question in a framework where the production of differentiated intermediate inputs is subject to dynamic nonconvexities, and we show that the answer depends on the degree of Hicks-Allen complementarity (substitutability) between differentiated inputs. In our simplest model, a generalization of Judd (1985) and Grossman and Helpman (1991) among many others, there are dynamic nonconvexities at the aggregate level if and only if differentiated inputs are Hicks-Allen complements. We also compare dynamic equilibrium and optimal allocations in the presence of aggregate dynamic nonconvexities due to Hicks-Allen complementarities between differentiated inputs.     

Recidivism,Redemption, and Desistance: Understanding Continuity and Change in Criminal Offending and Implications for Interventions

As the US incarceration rate has reached an unprecedented level, so has the number of people leaving prison and returning to the community. Faced with the prison population growth together with the economic downturn and budget crises, many states are seeking ways to break the increasing cycle of recidivism. Although research on recidivism and desistance has not always learned from each other, recently, there is an increasing convergence of these two streams of research. This convergence has been stimulated by a variety of factors, but most notably, it draws from emerging research on redemption, which focuses on the inverse relationship between recidivism risk and time since previous contact with the criminal justice system. Although the concepts of recidivism, desistance, and redemption are all about continuity and change in criminal offending over time, the relationship between the three has not been examined. In this paper, we discuss the interface between recidivism and desistance research with a particular focus on redemption research; point out one emerging consensus from both recidivism and desistance research, namely, the importance of offenders' motivation and individual internal change; and discuss new ideas to effectively improve our approaches of reducing recidivism and facilitating desistance.     

INSTITUTION‐INDUCED PRODUCTIVITY DIFFERENCES AND PATTERNS OF INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS

This paper studies theoretically how the cross‐country differences in the institutional quality (IQ) of domestic credit markets shape the patterns of international capital flows when such IQ differences also cause productivity differences across countries. IQ affects productivity by changing productivity–agency‐cost trade‐offs across heterogeneous investment projects. Such institution‐induced productivity differences are shown to have effects on the investment and capital flows that are opposite of exogenous productivity differences. This implies that the overall effect of IQ could generate U‐shaped responses of the investment and capital flows. Among other things, this means that capital could flow from middle‐income countries to both low‐income and high‐income countries, and that, starting from a very low IQ, a country could experience both a growth and a current account surplus after a successful institutional reform. More generally, the results here provide some cautions when interpreting the empirical evidence on the role of productivity differences and institutional differences on capital flows. It also calls into question the validity of treating the degree of financial frictions as a proxy for the quality of financial institutions, as commonly done in the literature.