"How much do you spend gambling?" ambiguities in survey questionnaire items

The validity of a survey's findings is dependent upon the clarity and lack of ambiguity contained in each individual item yet minimal attention has been directed to this issue in most prevalence studies. Researchers have shown a tendency to accept the uncritical assumption that respondents interpret seemingly simple and straightforward items such as 'how much do you spend gambling?' in a consistent manner. No attempt is made to confirm the uniformity of responses by clarifying the mathematical formulae used by respondents to derive their answers. The purpose of this paper was to examine the consistency shown by a sample of 181 medical undergraduate subjects in estimating the level of gambling expenditure in a series of five case vignettes describing various scenarios of wins and losses during a session of gambling. Results revealed a wide variation in calculated figures depending upon whether or not subjects interpreted the item to mean net expenditure or turnover. Only two thirds or less of subjects calculated the figure to be the difference between the initial amount risked and the residual at the conclusion of the session. It is suggested that more attention be paid in prevalence and clinical studies to providing subjects with clear instructions on how to calculate expenditure estimates.     

Ex Ante Project Evaluation and the Complexity of Early Decision-Making

This paper looks beyond more traditional evaluation activities to focus primarily on evaluation up front. It suggests that the early appraisal of an investment case or a project should apply essentially the same evaluation criteria that will be used in ex post evaluation, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project outcome. However, the initial plan might be altered as result of subsequent analysis, assessment, negotiation, positioning, and the exercise of power. The last part of this paper presents an empirical study of 23 projects, which examines the complexity of processes that occur in the idea- and decision phases.     

The Impact of Macro- and Micro-Economic Uncertainty on Family Formation in The Netherlands

In this paper, we study the impact of macro- and micro-economic uncertainty on family formation between 1970 and 2000 in The Netherlands. Using data of the Family Survey Dutch Population, we analysed the monthly hazard rates of experiencing the transition into first union, first marriage and parenthood after the start of the relationship of 365 male and 364 female partners by applying piecewise-constant exponential models. The results show that macro-economic uncertainties, i.e. high unemployment rates, lead to postponement of the first union and marriage, but not of the first child. In addition, we found that this relationship is not interpreted by individual-level employment insecurity, i.e. temporary employment or unemployment, which does not seem to prevent people from making long-term family commitments. Although hypothesized, we did not find that the negative effects of macro- and micro-level insecurities on family formation reinforce each other or that they vary between individuals with different educational qualifications.     

Union Bargaining,Wage Differentials and Employment

Abstract. Reviewing empirical studies concerning the corporatism-flexibility-performance nexus the paper discusses decentralized and centralized bargaining systems. Revenue pay systems, concession bargaining and two-tier wage systems as means to enhance wage flexibility at the firm level are also considered. Both theoretical and empirical evidence is presented, showing that unions are bargaining for greater employment security for the already employed (the insiders). In return, unions are ready to accept greater wage flexibility and even wage decreases. By contrast, the insider-outsider theory does suggest how unions may accentuate involuntary unemployment, because there may be ways in which a union can help to raise the wages of the insiders without reducing their chances of continued employment.     

Leader-employee congruence of expected contributions in the employee-organization relationship

Employees' expected contributions can be incongruent with those of their leader. We examine the congruence effect of leaders' and employees' expected contributions on job satisfaction. Results of cross-level polynomial regressions on 947 employees and 224 leaders support the congruence effect. When expected contributions are congruent, employees are more satisfied with their job. Our findings suggest that employees enjoy high challenges, as long as these challenges are in harmony with the expected contributions of their leaders. Employees are less satisfied with their jobs both when their expected contributions were higher than their leaders' and when their expected contributions were lower than those of their leaders. Beyond the relevance of having high expected contributions, the findings highlight the crucial role played by the congruence of expected contributions of leaders and employees.     

Assessment of cognitive workload of in-vehicle systems using a visual peripheral and tactile detection task setting

The increase of driver information and infotainment systems includes also interaction technologies like speech interaction that minimize visual-manual demand and put the focus to cognitive demand. The question is whether this could lead to distraction effects and decreased traffic safety. This study presents an evaluation method for cognitive demand based on different detection paradigms in a dual task setting. A listening and a backward counting task are realized on three difficulty levels as simulations of cognitively loading secondary tasks and investigated using a visual versus a tactile detection paradigm. The results show that both detection paradigms are able to discriminate the task levels and that subjects successfully apply compensation strategies in the dual task setting especially during the listening task.     

A quasi-Newton acceleration for high-dimensional optimization algorithms

In many statistical problems, maximum likelihood estimation by an EM or MM algorithm suffers from excruciatingly slow convergence. This tendency limits the application of these algorithms to modern high-dimensional problems in data mining, genomics, and imaging. Unfortunately, most existing acceleration techniques are ill-suited to complicated models involving large numbers of parameters. The squared iterative methods (SQUAREM) recently proposed by Varadhan and Roland constitute one notable exception. This paper presents a new quasi-Newton acceleration scheme that requires only modest increments in computation per iteration and overall storage and rivals or surpasses the performance of SQUAREM on several representative test problems.     

Have the relative employment prospects for the low-skilled deteriorated after all?

Has the relative unemployment propensity for the low-skilled increased during the 1990s? We address this question empirically, based on two notions of low skills; i) low education, and ii) low ability, conditioned on education and work experience. Ability is identified by previous earnings. Evaluated by the education-based measure, we find that unemployment propensity has not developed unfavourably for the low-skilled. Evaluated by the ability-based measure, it has. We uncover a steady deterioration of employment prospects for persons with low ability relative to others with similar formal qualifications. The adverse employment effects of being low-skilled are stronger the higher is formal education.All correspondence to Knut Røed. The paper is part of the project Sorting, exposed groups and labour market programs financed by the Research Council of Norway. We wish to thank Rolf Aaberge, Paul Gertler, Harald Goldstein, Karl Ove Moene, Jon Strand, Steinar Strøm, Asbjrn Rødseth and an anonymous referee for helpful comments. Responsible editor: John F. Ermisch.