More people - more energy: it seems obvious enough,but Carter plan ignores population

In President Carter's National Energy Plan, there are variable factors, including the coal production rate, standards for home insulation and auto mileage, various taxes, but not the population growth rate. The latter factor is considered to be beyond the influence of public policy; it is a constant. This seems irrational to zero population growth proponents, for there are alternatives to continued U.S. population growth, and these alternatives are more readily attainable than some of the elements in Carter's plan. With some national initiatives in population planning, energy use would be considerably less. Thus, the question remains - Why would Carter not deal with the population factor? 1 reason for this is the fact that population planning is a long-term approach; the results are indirect and not reflected immediately in energy comsumption. Yet, a start must be made in the short-term if there are ever to be long-term benefits. Russell Peterson has suggested that Carter could be ignoring the population factor because of "political sensitivity." Carter's people have ignored the population issue, and press coverage following Carter's energy pronouncements has excluded the population factor. In a situation such as this there seems little hope for increased public awareness of the population factor in energy or other public concerns.     

Utilizing Bayesian predictive power in clinical trial design

The Bayesian paradigm provides an ideal platform to update uncertainties and carry them over into the future in the presence of data. Bayesian predictive power (BPP) reflects our belief in the eventual success of a clinical trial to meet its goals. In this paper we derive mathematical expressions for the most common types of outcomes, to make the BPP accessible to practitioners, facilitate fast computations in adaptive trial design simulations that use interim futility monitoring, and propose an organized BPP-based phase II-to-phase III design framework.     

Decomposing primary and secondary effects: A new decomposition method

One strand of educational inequality research aims at decomposing the effect of social class origin on educational choices into primary and secondary effects. We formalize this distinction and present a new and simple method that allows empirical assessment of the relative magnitudes of primary and secondary effects. Contrary to other decomposition methods, this new method is unbiased, is more intuitive, and decomposes effects of both discrete and continuous measures of social origin. The method also provides analytically derived statistical tests and is easily calculated with standard statistical software. We give examples using the Danish Longitudinal Survey of Youth.     

Regulation of Jealousy Protest in the Context of Reunion Following Differential Treatment

Emotion regulation strategies and variation in their presentation were explored toward understanding infants' responses during reunion with mother (Re) following baseline mother–infant interaction (Bl) and differential treatment (DT) episodes. Correlation analyses revealed cohesion among distress and mother‐directed touch and proximity‐seeking during DT and Re, mother‐directed gaze during DT, and resistance during Re. The association between mother‐directed gaze during DT and distress during Re suggests that visual inattention during DT serves as a regulatory strategy. Overall, these linkages yield expanded understanding of jealousy protest as a constellation of responses that endures beyond the eliciting condition and includes regulatory behaviors. Cross‐context comparisons revealed that distress was lower during Re than during DT, but not as low as Bl, suggesting that DT poses challenge to interactive repair. Inquiry into individual variation revealed that distress during Re was augmented in laterborn males and with risk influences of dysregulated fear, and maternal insensitivity and hostility. Conversely, maternal depression was associated with less distress; later judgment as insecure, especially insecure‐avoidance, was associated with less mother‐directed behaviors. These findings suggest that dysregulation following DT is indicated by both resistance and passivity. In sum, the results highlight emotion regulation as a powerful framework for addressing recovery following DT.     

冒险成就的电信巨头

从任何一个角度看,全球无线手机通讯行业都在快速逼近危机的边缘。全世界已经有50多个国家的手机用户数量超过其实际人口数量。即使是在工业化国家中手机人均拥有率较低的美国,在用的手机数量也超过了2.7亿部（市场渗透率接近于90％）。今天,随着无线通讯市场的日益萎缩,     

Role of motives and attributes in consumer motion picture choice

The study focuses on consumer motion picture motives and choice criteria. Its purpose can be specified into the following objectives: (1) to examine the motivational basis of cinema attending. (2) to examine the predictive ability of movie motives and consumers' attribute importances in preference regressions of four types of movie, (3) to carry out a motion picture choice analysis by predicting audience membership with discriminant analysis. The data is based on a convinience sample of Finnish consumers (N = 228) attending one of the following types of movie: adventures/ thrillers, human/ social dramas, sex movies, entertainment movies.The results of a group of multivariate analyses (factor analysis, canonical correlation, preference regression, and discriminant analysis) indicate that consumers attending different types of films have distinctly separate motivation bases, as well as attribute importance profiles, underlying their movie choices. Each movie type had a specific preference structure, expressed by the regression coefficients. Finally, the discriminant analysis suggests that the general motive and attribute variables are effective also in predicting motion picture choice. On balance, the results were mutually supportive and exemplify the managerial usefulness of quantitative consumer analysis also in the case of such abstract leisure products as motion pictures.     

Soft cultures: the symbolism of cross-border organizing 1

It is not always true that the concept of culture implies a convergence on one meaning, one set of values, one pattern of behaviour. This paper develops the notion of soft culture. Cultures are soft in the sense that multiple renderings of reality are accepted and legitimized. Soft culture is studied in the context of cross-national technology development projects. Such projects are loosely structured communities, as organizational actors are separated in time and space. The paper demonstrates how symbols work among those actors. In addition to the traditional uses of symbolic categorizing, in soft culture the symbols also play an important role in attracting more networks to the action and licensing a wide variety of exploratory activities. These equivocal characteristics of symbols should be considered a strength in face of overwhelming uncertainty since they allow actors to construct multiple futures and pursue them.     

The accuracy of normal approximation in a heterogeneous panel data unit root test

Tests for unit roots in panel data have become very popular. Two attractive features of panel data unit root tests are the increased power compared to time-series tests, and the often well-behaved limiting distributions of the tests. In this paper we apply Monte Carlo simulations to investigate how well the normal approximation works for a heterogeneous panel data unit root test when there are only a few cross sections in the sample. We find that the normal approximation, which should be valid for large numbers of cross-sectional units, works well, at conventional significance levels, even when the number of cross sections is as small as two. This finding is valuable for the applied researcher since critical values will be easy to obtain and p-values will be readily available.     

The Self‐Directed Search as a Stand‐Alone Intervention With College Students

The Self‐Directed Search (SDS; Holland, 1994 ) is sometimes administered to large student groups outside of counseling to address common career development needs. This study evaluated the effectiveness of the SDS as a stand‐alone intervention by comparing a general sample of college students who completed the SDS (n = 39) with a no‐treatment control group (n = 41) on several outcomes. Completion of the SDS related to an increase in the number of career alternatives being considered 4 weeks later but did not relate to career exploration, career decision‐making self‐efficacy, career indecision, and seeking of career counseling services. If the SDS is used outside of counseling with broad student samples, the authors suggest providing additional intervention to ensure that it promotes exploration of any additional careers being considered.     

Psychology Takes to the Airways: American Radio Psychology Between the Wars, 1926–1939

Modern American culture has seen a proliferation of radio and television personalities associated with talk therapy and advice-giving within the last 20 years (Epstein Psychology Today 34:5 2001). The origin of radio psychology, however, is the late 1920’s, when radio began to air many promoters of psychology in the context of “public service” programming. Among these individuals were Louis Monash, Arthur Payne, and, perhaps most importantly, Joseph Jastrow. Traditionally-trained psychologists used the new medium of radio in the service of education and adjustment. This article surveys radio psychology, its personalities, and topics in the inter-war period and proposes the significant social support role that radio psychology played during the Great Depression, much as modern talk radio does today (Ricks 1984).