Approximate estimation in nonlinear panel data models

This paper is concerned with the estimation of a general class of nonlinear panel data models in which the conditional distribution of the dependent variable and the distribution of the heterogeneity factors are arbitrary. In general, exact analytical results for this problem do not exist. Here, Laplace and small-sigma appriximations for the marginal likelihood are presented. The computation of the MLE from both approximations is straightforward. It is shown that the accuracy of the Laplace approximation depends on both the sample size and the variance of the individual effects, whereas the accuracy of the small-sigma approximation is 0(1) with respect to the sample size. The results are applied to count, duration and probit panel data models. The accuracy of the approximations is evaluated through a Monte Carlo simulation experiment. The approximations are also applied in an analysis of youth unemployment in Australia.     

Them and Us: Hidden Ideologies-Differences in Degree or Kind?

This article looks at three measuring instruments—the Right-Wing Authoritarianism Scale, the Social Dominance Orientation Scale, and the Attitudes About Reality Scale—used to examine covert ideology and its relationship to social and political beliefs and behaviors. These scales share similar ideological components involving abdication of moral responsibility to an outside agent, belief that one's own ideology represents the only form of truth, and negative beliefs about individuals who are not members of one's own group. Evidence is provided to suggest that radical fundamentalists and some groups within U.S. society share ideological beliefs that differ in degree rather than kind. These beliefs make it easy for them to divide the world into "us" and "them" and exacerbate the present conflict.     

Intercounty Variability of Net Migration at Older Ages as a Path‐Dependent Process

This article seeks to identify factors associated with the formation and development of nonmetropolitan destinations for older in‐migration, thereby explaining why some U.S. counties are more likely than others to be nonmetro retirement destinations. We contend that most nonmetro retirement destinations are established and developed over time through a path‐dependent process. When amenities are commodified as recreation and tourism, migration streams tend to be established that ultimately produce sustained in‐migration of older persons to selected destination communities. We use data from a variety of official sources and a spatial statistics methodology to examine intercounty variability in net migration rates at ages 60–74. Our findings are consistent with the aforementioned path‐dependent development framework. Counties with a long history of population growth, previous experience attracting older in‐migrants, attractive natural amenities, and a developed recreation and tourism industry are those most likely to be retirement‐age migration destinations. In contrast, agricultural heartland and relatively large population size are associated with lower rates of older in‐migration. Older in‐migration should be seen as neither a panacea for strapped rural communities nor a “pensions and care issue.” Older migrants can be “gray gold,” but they can also pose challenges, such as possibly increased demand for public services as they age in place.     

Introduction of long-term care insurance in Germany: An economic interpretation

This paper analyses the introduction of long-term care insurance in Germany and provides an overview of some of the main arguments. It focuses on economic aspects of the new scheme, namely its impact on efficiency, distribution and employment as well as government budgets. The new insurance is suboptimal on a number of dimensions but not clearly inferior to an alternative discussed in the literature.     

Einkommen, Gesundheit und Mortalität in Deutschland, Grossbritannien und den USA

The paper examines the effect of income on mortality with respect to different health statuses and institutional characteristics of the health care system in the USA, Great Britain and West Germany. It is hypothesized that the nature of the theoretical contribution of income in explaining mortality risks changes on whether good or poor health is considered. Taking into account that the health care systems of the countries in question vary by their degree of household out-of-pocket expenditure, we expect an association between income and mortality that differs by country. The analysis is based on the German Socio-economic Panel (GSOEP), the British Household Panel Study (BHPS), and the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). The effect of income on mortality is found to be weakest when medical services are sought in the presence of poor health within the framework of a national health insurance that renders free primary health care (Great Britain, Germany). The effect is strongest when the provision of primary health care depends strongly on private expenditures (USA).     

Educational Differences in Desired Family Size and Attitudes Toward Childbearing in Latina Women

Attitudes toward childbearing and desired family size influence women's reproductive choices. This may be especially true in the Latina culture, where motherhood and large families are valued highly. To determine whether these attitudes differ by educational status, Latina women in an OB/GYN clinic (N=351) completed a survey assessing attitudes toward childbearing and desired family size. Attitudes of women with and without a high school education were compared. Respondents without a high school education desired a mean of 3.1 children, while those with a high school education desired a mean of 2.7. Women without a high school education endorsed more attitudes favoring large families. Among women without a high school education, those who wished to have a son to carry on the family name tended to desire larger families. Results suggest that the desire for large families among Latina women with low education may result from traditional cultural attitudes.     

An evaluation of immediate outcomes and fidelity of a drug abuse prevention program in continuation high schools: project towards no drug abuse (TND)

The present study provides an implementation fidelity, process, and immediate outcomes evaluation of Project Towards No Drug Abuse (TND), a drug prevention program targeting continuation high school youth (n=1426) at risk for drug abuse. A total of 24 schools participated in three randomized conditions: TND Only, TND and motivational interviewing follow-up, and no treatment control. Fidelity was high: across program schools the curriculum was implemented as intended and was received favorably by students. Relative to controls, intervention conditions produced effects on hypothesized mediators, including greater gains in program related knowledge, greater reductions in drug use intentions, and positive changes in motivation. However, few generalizations to attitudes and intentions regarding risky sexual behavior were found. The pattern of results suggests that the experimental manipulations worked as intended.