Dangerous Climate Change: The Role for Risk Research

The notion of "dangerous climate change" constitutes an important development of the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. It persists, however, as an ambiguous expression, sustained by multiple definitions of danger. It also implicitly contains the question of how to respond to the complex and multi-disciplinary risk issues that climate change poses. The invaluable role of the climate science community, which relies on risk assessments to characterize system uncertainties and to identify limits beyond which changes may become dangerous, is acknowledged. But this alone will not suffice to develop long-term policy. Decisions need to include other considerations, such as value judgments about potential risks, and societal and individual perceptions of "danger," which are often contested. This article explores links and cross-overs between the climate science and risk communication and perception approaches to defining danger. Drawing upon nine articles in this Special Issue of Risk Analysis, we examine a set of themes: limits of current scientific understanding; differentiated public perceptions of danger from climate change; social and cultural processes amplifying and attenuating perceptions of, and responses to, climate change; risk communication design; and new approaches to climate change decision making. The article reflects upon some of the difficulties inherent in responding to the issue in a coherent, interdisciplinary fashion, concluding nevertheless that action should be taken, while acknowledging the context-specificity of "danger." The need for new policy tools is emphasised, while research on nested solutions should be aimed at overcoming the disjunctures apparent in interpretations of climate change risks.     

Resisting Organizational Inertia: The Evolution of Industrial Districts

Industrial district success in Italy is often explained as a function oftraditional, homogenous communities, where close social ties and communityinstitutions supposedly create the trust necessary for collaborativeinter-firm relationships among small firms. However, such a functionalistapproach fails to explain why some districts prosper over time bydeveloping new process and product innovations, while others stagnatebecause they fail to respond to rapidly changing markets. We argue thatgreater attention to firm networks – both those internal and external to the district – and the role of key firms represents a more usefulanalytical method for understanding the evolution and formation ofindustrial districts.     

WHY DO EMERGING ECONOMIES BORROW SHORT TERM?

We argue that one reason why emerging economies borrow short term is that it is cheaper than borrowing long term. This is especially the case during crises, as during these episodes the relative cost of long‐term borrowing increases. We construct a unique database of sovereign bond prices, returns, and issuances at different maturities for 11 emerging economies from 1990 to 2009 and present a set of new stylized facts. On average, these countries pay a higher risk premium on long‐term than on short‐term bonds. During crises, the difference between the two risk premia increases and issuance shifts towards shorter maturities. To illustrate our argument, we present a simple model in which the maturity structure is the outcome of a risk‐sharing problem between an emerging economy subject to rollover crises and risk‐averse international investors.     

Bubbles and Self‐Enforcing Debt

We characterize equilibria with endogenous debt constraints for a general equilibrium economy with limited commitment in which the only consequence of default is losing the ability to borrow in future periods. First, we show that equilibrium debt limits must satisfy a simple condition that allows agents to exactly roll over existing debt period by period. Second, we provide an equivalence result, whereby the resulting set of equilibrium allocations with self‐enforcing private debt is equivalent to the allocations that are sustained with unbacked public debt or rational bubbles. In contrast to the classic result by Bulow and Rogoff (1989a), positive levels of debt are sustainable in our environment because the interest rate is sufficiently low to provide repayment incentives.     

Comparing Hospitals and Health Prices and Volumes Across Countries: A New Approach

Health services are among the most comparison-resistant services in international comparisons such as the Eurostat–OECD Purchasing Power Parities (PPP) program and the ICP. Traditionally, PPPs for health services are estimated on the basis of input methods, e.g. by comparing salaries of doctors and nurses. This mainly reflects the difficulties inherent in measuring the output of services produced by nonmarket producers. Since 2007, OECD and Eurostat have undertaken work, with their Member States, to develop explicit output-based measures of prices and volumes of hospital services directed at comparisons across countries. The approach is based on collecting quasi-prices for a basket of comparable and representative medical and surgical hospital services. Eurostat and OECD used the new approach for the first time in their PPP calculations that entered the 2011 ICP benchmark round. The paper describes the output-based approach, the way it was developed and tested to assess its feasibility, and the results based on the latest data collection.     

Genesis of a research field: district,network, strategic network

This article summarizes the changes since the beginning of the 1980s in the scholarly approach to organizational and economic research on Italian firms. Beginning with the study of industrial districts, which sparked a major reconsideration of the conventional wisdom, most scholars focused primarily on the significance of firm geographical proximity while marginalizing issues related to firm structure and strategy. Nevertheless, industrial district research eventually led to the question of firm networks, in particular how to manage relational capabilities and cooperation, both of which affect a firm’s competitive position. This new analytical framework no longer dependent on either the single firm or an industrial sector has opened up new research perspectives that promise rich insights into socio-economic studies.     

Liquidity and Trading Dynamics

In this paper, we build a model where the presence of liquidity constraints tends to magnify the economy's response to aggregate shocks. We consider a decentralized model of trade, where agents may use money or credit to buy goods. When agents do not have access to credit and the real value of money balances is low, agents are more likely to be liquidity constrained. This makes them more concerned about their short‐term earning prospects when making their consumption decisions and about their short‐term spending opportunities when making their production decisions. This generates a coordination element in spending and production which leads to greater aggregate volatility and greater comovement across producers.     

Decentralized Trading With Private Information

The paper studies how asset prices are determined in a decentralized market with asymmetric information about asset values. We consider an economy in which a large number of agents trade two assets in bilateral meetings. A fraction of the agents has private information about the asset values. We show that, over time, uninformed agents can elicit information from their trading partners by making small offers. This form of experimentation allows the uninformed agents to acquire information as long as there are potential gains from trade in the economy. As a consequence, the economy converges to a Pareto efficient allocation.