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1.
Irving Louis Horowitz 《The American Sociologist》2003,34(1-2):10-16
Let me preface my remarks by saying that we are here to honor a living, breathing colleague. My great concern, and in this
I am sure that I speak for my colleagues as well, is that any imputation of a postmortem be avoided. Indeed, I would like
to believe that Marty will review these various contributions and make his own assessments-critical or approvingly. The fact
that he is not present in this conference hall should not deter us from speaking frankly and forthrightly. Marty merits nothing
less. What binds us all is the sure knowledge that the work of Lipset speaks to us in personal as well as professional ways.
That he has touched so many of us in both the private and public realms is itself a testimonial of the magnitude of his contribution
to the field of political sociology. So it is in that spirit of a collégial dialogue that I offer these remarks. Let us hope
that a year from now a session of one person can be held, at which S. M. Lipset will provide rebuttals and responses to those
of us herein gathered.
His most recent work in the field is Behemoth: Main Currents in the History and Theory of Political Sociology.
The two major sources for traching the written works of Seymour Lipset are contained in Reexamining Democracy: Essays in Honor
of Seymour Martin Lipset, edited by Gary Marx and Martin Diamond. Newberry Park, California: Sage Publishers. 1992, especially
pp. 332–355. For work done by Lipset after 1991; as embodied in his later work, see Lipset's essay on “Steady Work: An Academic
Memoir,” Annual Review of Socialogy: Greenwich, CT: JAI Press, 1996, pp. 1–27. My reference to works mentioned in the narrative can
be found in either of these bibliography sources. 相似文献
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Early utopias envisioning a perfect order were superseded by small-scale versions in utopian communities. Scientific socialism then held that utopian socialism was doomed to failure in a hostile capitalistic world. As the Soviet experience elicited anti-utopias, utopianism has been unable to resolve its own contradictions in an imperfect world. This tragic outcome is an opportunity for sociology in its study of human interactions to analyze both the possibilities and the inherent limitations of proposed social systems. By monitoring the rich variety of social experience, it may help to restrain some of the fanaticisms that now surround us.These remarks were presented at the 1988 annual meetings of the Eastern Sociological Society in Philadelphia, March 1988. 相似文献
5.
Economics of Radiation Protection: Equity Considerations 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Schneider Thierry Schieber Caroline Eeckhoudt Louis Gollier Christian 《Theory and Decision》1997,43(3):241-251
In order to implement cost-benefit analysis of protective actions to reduce radiological exposures, one needs to attribute a monetary value to the avoided exposure. Recently, the International Commission on Radiological Protection has stressed the need to take into consideration not only the collective exposure to ionising radiation but also its dispersion in the population. In this paper, by using some well known and some recent results in the economics of uncertainty, we discuss how to integrate these recommendations in the valuation of the benefit of protection. 相似文献
6.
Louis Marinoff 《Theory and Decision》1993,35(1):55-73
In quantum domains, the measurement (or observation) of one of a pair of complementary variables introduces an unavoidable uncertainty in the value of that variable's complement. Such uncertainties are negligible in Newtonian worlds, where observations can be made without appreciably disturbing the observed system. Hence, one would not expect that an observation of a non-quantum probabilistic outcome could affect a probability distribution over subsequently possible states, in a way that would conflict with classical probability calculations. This paper examines three problems in which observations appear to affect the probabilities and expected utilities of subsequent outcomes, in ways which may appear paradoxical. Deeper analysis of these problems reveals that the anomalies arise, not from paradox, but rather from faulty inferences drawn from the observations themselves. Thus the notion of quantum decision theory is disparaged. 相似文献
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The three classic pillars of risk analysis are risk assessment (how big is the risk and how sure can we be?), risk management (what shall we do about it?), and risk communication (what shall we say about it, to whom, when, and how?). We propose two complements as important parts of these three bases: risk attribution (who or what addressable conditions actually caused an accident or loss?) and learning from experience about risk reduction (what works, and how well?). Failures in complex systems usually evoke blame, often with insufficient attention to root causes of failure, including some aspects of the situation, design decisions, or social norms and culture. Focusing on blame, however, can inhibit effective learning, instead eliciting excuses to deflect attention and perceived culpability. Productive understanding of what went wrong, and how to do better, thus requires moving past recrimination and excuses. This article identifies common blame‐shifting “lame excuses” for poor risk management. These generally contribute little to effective improvements and may leave real risks and preventable causes unaddressed. We propose principles from risk and decision sciences and organizational design to improve results. These start with organizational leadership. More specifically, they include: deliberate testing and learning—especially from near‐misses and accident precursors; careful causal analysis of accidents; risk quantification; candid expression of uncertainties about costs and benefits of risk‐reduction options; optimization of tradeoffs between gathering additional information and immediate action; promotion of safety culture; and mindful allocation of people, responsibilities, and resources to reduce risks. We propose that these principles provide sound foundations for improving successful risk management. 相似文献
9.
Ofir Harari Grace Hsu Louis Dron Jay J. H. Park Kristian Thorlund Edward J. Mills 《Pharmaceutical statistics》2021,20(2):256-271
The Bayesian paradigm provides an ideal platform to update uncertainties and carry them over into the future in the presence of data. Bayesian predictive power (BPP) reflects our belief in the eventual success of a clinical trial to meet its goals. In this paper we derive mathematical expressions for the most common types of outcomes, to make the BPP accessible to practitioners, facilitate fast computations in adaptive trial design simulations that use interim futility monitoring, and propose an organized BPP-based phase II-to-phase III design framework. 相似文献
10.
National accounts of subjective well-being are being considered and adopted by nations. In order to be useful for policy deliberations, the measures of life satisfaction must be psychometrically sound. The reliability, validity, and sensitivity to change of life satisfaction measures are reviewed. The scales are stable under unchanging conditions, but are sensitive to changes in circumstances in people’s lives. Several types of data indicate that the scales validly reflect the quality of respondents’ lives: (1) Differences between nations in life satisfaction associated with differences in objective conditions, (2) Differences between groups who live in different circumstances, (3) Correlations with nonself-report measures of life satisfaction, (4) Genetic and physiological associations with life satisfaction, (5) Systematic patterns of change in the scales before, during, and after significant life events, and (6) Prediction by life satisfaction scores of future behaviors such as suicide. The life satisfaction scales can be influenced by factors such as question order, current mood, and mode of presentation, but in most cases these can be controlled. Our model of life satisfaction judgments points to the importance of attention, values, standards, and top-down effects. Although the scales are useful in research on individual well-being, there are policy questions that need more analysis and research, such as which types of subjective well-being measures are most relevant to which types of policies, how standards influence scores, and how best to associate the scores with current policy deliberations. 相似文献