Probabilistic Reliability Modeling for Oil Exploration & Production (E&P) Facilities in the Tallgrass Prairie Preserve

The aging domestic oil production infrastructure represents a high risk to the environment because of the type of fluids being handled (oil and brine) and the potential for accidental release of these fluids into sensitive ecosystems. Currently, there is not a quantitative risk model directly applicable to onshore oil exploration and production (E&P) facilities. We report on a probabilistic reliability model created for onshore exploration and production (E&P) facilities. Reliability theory, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), and event trees were used to develop the model estimates of the failure probability of typical oil production equipment. Monte Carlo simulation was used to translate uncertainty in input parameter values to uncertainty in the model output. The predicted failure rates were calibrated to available failure rate information by adjusting probability density function parameters used as random variates in the Monte Carlo simulations. The mean and standard deviation of normal variate distributions from which the Weibull distribution characteristic life was chosen were used as adjustable parameters in the model calibration. The model was applied to oil production leases in the Tallgrass Prairie Preserve, Oklahoma. We present the estimated failure probability due to the combination of the most significant failure modes associated with each type of equipment (pumps, tanks, and pipes). The results show that the estimated probability of failure for tanks is about the same as that for pipes, but that pumps have much lower failure probability. The model can provide necessary equipment reliability information for proactive risk management at the lease level by providing quantitative information to base allocation of maintenance resources to high-risk equipment that will minimize both lost production and ecosystem damage.     

The development of emotion regulation in adolescence: What do we know and where to go next?

Emotion regulation is critical for adolescent functioning. Theories on the subject have evolved rapidly in recent years and have led to a more contextualized and dynamic conceptualization of emotion regulation processes. In this paper, based on the distinction between emotion regulation strategies and abilities, we propose future directions for research on emotion regulation development in adolescence. We first present evidence that emotional, cognitive, and social changes that occur in adolescence are central in emotion regulation development. We then review empirical findings on emotion regulation development by tying them to their conceptual foundations. We discuss their limitations and argue that building better conceptual clarity is essential to study emotion regulation. Because current knowledge on recent concepts that emerged in adult-based models remains limited and contested in adolescence, we end this article by discussing new research perspectives to provide a better understanding of the topic. We stress the need for researchers in the field to adopt a more contextualized and person-oriented approach, to combine different time scales and methods, and examine the predictors of emotion regulation as well as its outcomes.     

Legitimation, Geographical Scale, and Organizational Density: Regional Patterns of Foundings of American Automobile Producers, 1885–1981

Do organizational processes of legitimation and competition operate within different boundaries corresponding to different geographical levels of analysis? Following Hannan et al. (1995), this analysis explores the possibility that legitimation operates on a broader geographical scale (less constrained by political and physical barriers) than does competition. We test the argument by examining founding rates of American automobile producers from 1885 to 1981, within the framework of density-dependent modeling. Our findings suggest that within the United States, legitimation operated on a national scale while competition proceeded primarily on a regional level. Comparison with automobile producer populations in Europe yields differences in application and interpretation of the theory.     

An axiomatization of the human development index

In 2010 the UNDP unveiled a new methodology for the calculation of the Human Development Index (HDI). In this paper I investigate the normative and practical properties of this change vis a vis the original formulation of the HDI in 1990. The main conceptual innovation of the new index can be summarized as follows: the new HDI penalizes both low and uneven achievements across all dimensions of human development, whereas the old formulation is not sensitive to such uneven development. In practice, however, both methodologies agree considerably in terms of how they rank countries, but when they differ, the new methodology produces results more consistent with what the HDI is intended to measure: human development and capabilities, as conceptualized by Sen (Commodities and capabilities. Elsevier, Oxford 1985).