Quality strategies in supply chain alliances of disposable items

This paper studies a single-product distribution channel where a supplier manufactures items of a given type, some of which are defective, that are sold by a retailer who only detects a subset of the defective items, passing the rest along to customers. We conjecture the structure of the demand and cost functions, assuming customers to have a decreasing marginal aversion to bad quality while both the supplier and the retailer make marginally increasing efforts to avoid bad quality. This allows us to deduce several implicit parameters of a cost model based on observable data, such as the share of the channel margin. Once the parameters of the model are available, we analyze the result of vertical integration. Although we confirm the well-known fact that vertical integration improves the quality perceived by the customer, we characterize the supplier's decision of whether or not to provide a better quality in terms of the individual channel margins. As an alternative, we derive the conditions under which the supplier and the retailer may devise a mutually beneficial transfer contract that simultaneously increases their profit and improves quality.     

Four criteria to evaluate providers' service-delivery response to new contraceptive introduction

This article presents an evaluation framework developed to assess the first-level effects of introducing the Standard Days Method (SDM) in Peru Ministry of Health clinics. Four questions are asked: 1) To what extent do providers routinely achieve SDM service delivery standards? 2) Is the time invested in SDM delivery consistent with program norms? 3) How does SDM delivery compare with delivery of established methods? and 4) How does SDM introduction affect delivery of established methods? A study at 62 clinics demonstrated the framework's usefulness. The Standard Days Method introduction had positive overall effects on the quality of care but provider training needed adjustments.     

A new regression model for bimodal data and applications in agriculture

We define the odd log-logistic exponential Gaussian regression with two systematic components, which extends the heteroscedastic Gaussian regression and it is suitable for bimodal data quite common in the agriculture area. We estimate the parameters by the method of maximum likelihood. Some simulations indicate that the maximum-likelihood estimators are accurate. The model assumptions are checked through case deletion and quantile residuals. The usefulness of the new regression model is illustrated by means of three real data sets in different areas of agriculture, where the data present bimodality.     

<Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">MAD-STEC</Emphasis>: a method for multiple automatic detection of space-time emerging clusters

Crime or disease surveillance commonly rely in space-time clustering methods to identify emerging patterns. The goal is to detect spatial-temporal clusters as soon as possible after its occurrence and to control the rate of false alarms. With this in mind, a spatio-temporal multiple cluster detection method was developed as an extension of a previous proposal based on a spatial version of the Shiryaev–Roberts statistic. Besides the capability of multiple cluster detection, the method have less input parameter than the previous proposal making its use more intuitive to practitioners. To evaluate the new methodology a simulation study is performed in several scenarios and enlighten many advantages of the proposed method. Finally, we present a case study to a crime data-set in Belo Horizonte, Brazil.     

Strains in Sustainability Debates: Traditional Ecological Knowledge and Western Science through the Lens of Extension Agents in a Pastoral Region

Those involved in sustainability debates on developmental pathways concur in the synergistic potential of integrating traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) and Western scientific approaches. Transhumant pastoralism is a livelihood strategy adapted to spatiotemporal environmental variability in many mountainous and arid regions worldwide. This form of livelihood is based on a mobile logic that is increasingly threatened by novel lifestyles promoted from a Western mind-set and by climate change. The aim of this article is to identify and characterize the different perspectives of environmental and social issues in a pastoral region and their association with labor collaboration among extension agents, framed in an institutional action. We tackled the inquiry about viewpoints with Q methodology and related it to regional problems, alternative solutions, and future development pathways for transhumant pastoralism and landscape management in northwest Patagonia. We identified six perspectives and characterized them with their topological position in the social network. Mediating positions registered the highest network centrality of labor collaborations among agents, whereas more dominant perspectives emphasizing TEK or scientific knowledge registered intermediate centrality. There was consensus on the need for sustainable developmental options, but the emphasis on combining knowledge still needs convergent solutions.     

Multidimensional Targeting: Identifying Beneficiaries of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs

Conditional cash transfer programs (CCTs) have two main objectives: reducing poverty and increasing the human capital of children. To reach these objectives, transfers are given to poor households conditioned on investments in their children’s education, health, and nutrition. Targeting mechanisms used by CCTs have been generally successful in identifying the income poor but have not fared as well in identifying households that under-invest in human capital. These mechanisms do not consider the multidimensional aspect of poverty, even when composite measures are used, as they do not capture each dimension-specific deprivation. This paper proposes a multidimensional targeting approach to identifying beneficiaries that explicitly takes into consideration the multiple objectives of CCTs and the multiple deprivations of the poor household. Results indicate that the proposed multidimensional targeting methodology significantly improves the selection of households with children who are most deprived in the dimensions often relevant to CCTs. In the case of Mexico’s Oportunidades, ex-ante evaluation results indicate that the multidimensional identification of beneficiaries increases the impact of transfers on school attendance compared to alternative targeting models.     

Who am I when I don't know who I am? The problem of personal identity in infants and elderly with cognitive disabilities

This article addresses the problem of whether we can speak of personal identity in cases of infants or elderly with cognitive disabilities as hydrocephaly or dementia, lives that could be considered borderline in terms of personal identity because they lack certain characteristics normally considered indispensable for personal life. Taking as a reference recent discussions on personal identity, particularly the narrative theories of Hilde Lindemann, Françoise Baylis and Marya Schechtman, the article analyses in what sense, under what assumptions, and in what way such a thing could be defended. Finally, some problems and objections to these approaches are considered.     

Human Error Contribution in Collision and Grounding of Oil Tankers

The purpose of this article is to present a quantitative analysis of the human failure contribution in the collision and/or grounding of oil tankers, considering the recommendation of the “Guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment” of the International Maritime Organization. Initially, the employed methodology is presented, emphasizing the use of the technique for human error prediction to reach the desired objective. Later, this methodology is applied to a ship operating on the Brazilian coast and, thereafter, the procedure to isolate the human actions with the greatest potential to reduce the risk of an accident is described. Finally, the management and organizational factors presented in the “International Safety Management Code” are associated with these selected actions. Therefore, an operator will be able to decide where to work in order to obtain an effective reduction in the probability of accidents. Even though this study does not present a new methodology, it can be considered as a reference in the human reliability analysis for the maritime industry, which, in spite of having some guides for risk analysis, has few studies related to human reliability effectively applied to the sector.     

Bayesian Estimation of Age-Specific Mortality and Life Expectancy for Small Areas With Defective Vital Records

High sampling variability complicates estimation of demographic rates in small areas. In addition, many countries have imperfect vital registration systems, with coverage quality that varies significantly between regions. We develop a Bayesian regression model for small-area mortality schedules that simultaneously addresses the problems of small local samples and underreporting of deaths. We combine a relational model for mortality schedules with probabilistic prior information on death registration coverage derived from demographic estimation techniques, such as Death Distribution Methods, and from field audits by public health experts. We test the model on small-area data from Brazil. Incorporating external estimates of vital registration coverage though priors improves small-area mortality estimates by accounting for underregistration and automatically producing measures of uncertainty. Bayesian estimates show that when mortality levels in small areas are compared, noise often dominates signal. Differences in local point estimates of life expectancy are often small relative to uncertainty, even for relatively large areas in a populous country like Brazil.     

Prevalence and Correlates of Gambling Problems Among a Nationally Representative Sample of Brazilian Adolescents

The objectives of the study are: (a) to provide the first prevalence estimates of pathological gambling among Brazilian adolescents using an age-specific instrument in a nationally representative sample; (b) to investigate the extent to which adolescents participate in gambling activities in a developing country; and (c) to correlate different levels of gambling behavior with demographic variables. Multistage cluster sampling selected 3,007 individuals over 14 years of age from Brazilian household population. A total of 661 participants were between 14 and 17 years old. The Lie/Bet Questionnaire and the DSM-IV-MR-J were used for assessing problem and pathological gambling. 2.8% scored positive on the screening questionnaire, while 1.6% were classified as problem and pathological gamblers. Factors associated with problem and pathological gambling were male sex, not currently studying and considering religion as not important. Less than 4 months elapsed between the age of regular gambling involvement and the first gambling problem. Prevalence rates were quite similar from recent studies which used nationally representative samples. The association of problem and pathological gambling with male sex, school drop-out and low religiosity supports the Problem Behavior Theory. The fast progression to problem gambling adds evidence that adolescents may be more vulnerable to the effects of gambling.