POLITICAL SELECTION IN CHINA: THE COMPLEMENTARY ROLES OF CONNECTIONS AND PERFORMANCE

Who becomes a top politician in China? We focus on provincial leaders—a pool of candidates for top political office—and examine how their chances of promotion depend on their performance in office and connections with top politicians. Our empirical analysis, based on the curriculum vitae of Chinese politicians, shows that connections and performance are complements in the Chinese political selection process. This complementarity is stronger the younger provincial leaders are relative to their connected top leaders. To provide one plausible interpretation of these empirical findings, we propose a simple theory in which the complementarity arises because connections foster loyalty of junior officials to senior ones, thereby allowing incumbent top politicians to select competent provincial leaders without risking being ousted. Our findings shed some light on why a political system known for patronage can still select competent leaders.     

Social Change and Social Policy in Japan

This paper aims to present and discuss social change and social policy in Japan after the mid-20th century from a sociological viewpoint. Japanese social change and social policy from the mid-20th century onward can be categorized into three models in chronological order: escape from mass poverty by means of industrialization, improvement of the social security system to establish a welfare state, and parallel progress of aspiration for a welfare society and workfare. Defined concretely, these are (1) the period that established and improved social security, which started immediately after the end of World War II and ended in 1973, when Japan began to suffer from low growth after enjoying high growth; (2) the period in which finance for social security was adjusted, halfway through which the country experienced a bubble economy; and (3) the period after the 1990s, in which the structural reform of social security went hand-in-hand with labor policy and the advent of globalization. In each of the three periods, the direction of social policy was affected by factors that caused changes in such areas as industrial structure (the decline of agriculture), demographic structure (an aging society), and family structure and work pattern (the growing trend of nuclear families, single-person households, and irregular employment). In Japan, life security now attracts increasing attention, and employment security rather than social security has been the central issue. As it is greatly affected by globalization, employment security grows less conspicuous and makes the vulnerability of social security grow more conspicuous. Social policy has the potential to become an area with which to struggle for national integration and fissures between social groups.     

Studies of information quantities and information geometry of higher order cumulant spaces

Given a vector-valued stationary time series, we define information quantities such as entropy, divergence, and mutual information by their second- and higher-order cumulant spectra. These quantities are naturally introduced from the information geometrical viewpoint. We present their expressions for linear processes and for random vectors. In the case of linear processes, relations to the identification of transfer function matrices are clarified. In the case of random vectors, relations to the quantities defined by using probability density functions are provided. As an application, we treat the identification of nonlinear systems in the framework of this paper. We also present differential geometrical backgrounds based on the invariance for our definitions.     

Estimating population characteristics by incorporating prior values in stratified random sampling/ranked set sampling

In this paper, we discuss the estimation of population characteristics using stratified random sampling in an infinite population framework, including ranked set sampling as a special case. The use of prior values is considered and the underlying distribution is assumed to be unknown. The estimator considered in each stratum is the weighted mean of the U-statistic and prior value. The optimum weight is obtained by minimizing the mean squared error of the estimator of the population characteristics, but it contains unknown parameters and those parameters are replaced with their estimates. Simulation results show the gains in efficiency of the proposed estimator, yielding gains of at least 1.2 times larger than the usual unbiased estimator under certain condition specified in the text. Guidelines for the usage of the proposed estimator are shown and an application to a real data set is provided.     

Adaptation and validation of the Japanese version of the Gambling Urge Scale

In Japan, accurately assessing and targeting gambling urges is important for the treatment of gambling disorder because people are constantly exposed to external triggers that elicit gambling urges. However, a valid measure that assesses gambling urges has not been adequately established. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to examine the psychometric properties of the Japanese version of the Gambling Urge Scale (GUS-J), which is a well-known valid 6-item instrument in English-speaking countries. Two hundred and thirty-nine participants completed questionnaires, 86 of which met the criteria for a probable gambling disorder. As with the original GUS, the GUS-J was demonstrated to be a one-factor model that accounted for 63.82% of the total item variance, with all items demonstrating loadings of .40 or higher. With regard to reliability, the GUS-J showed good internal consistency (α = .88). Furthermore, validity based on evidence of relationships with other variables, especially convergent and concurrent validity of the GUS-J, were supported by several analyses that examined hypotheses based on previous findings. In conclusion, this study showed that the GUS-J has good psychometric properties as an assessment tool for gambling urges in Japanese people and it will be useful for future clinical practice and research.     

Estimation for Discretely Observed Small Diffusions Based on Approximate Martingale Estimating Functions

Abstract.  We consider an asymptotically efficient estimator of the drift parameter for a multi-dimensional diffusion process with small dispersion parameter ɛ . In the situation where the sample path is observed at equidistant times k / n , k  = 0, 1, …,  n , we study asymptotic properties of an M -estimator derived from an approximate martingale estimating function as ɛ tends to 0 and n tends to ∞ simultaneously.     

Estimation of treatment effects based on possibly misspecified Cox regression

In randomized clinical trials, a treatment effect on a time-to-event endpoint is often estimated by the Cox proportional hazards model. The maximum partial likelihood estimator does not make sense if the proportional hazard assumption is violated. Xu and O'Quigley (Biostatistics 1:423-439, 2000) proposed an estimating equation, which provides an interpretable estimator for the treatment effect under model misspecification. Namely it provides a consistent estimator for the log-hazard ratio among the treatment groups if the model is correctly specified, and it is interpreted as an average log-hazard ratio over time even if misspecified. However, the method requires the assumption that censoring is independent of treatment group, which is more restricted than that for the maximum partial likelihood estimator and is often violated in practice. In this paper, we propose an alternative estimating equation. Our method provides an estimator of the same property as that of Xu and O'Quigley under the usual assumption for the maximum partial likelihood estimation. We show that our estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal, and derive a consistent estimator of the asymptotic variance. If the proportional hazards assumption holds, the efficiency of the estimator can be improved by applying the covariate adjustment method based on the semiparametric theory proposed by Lu and Tsiatis (Biometrika 95:679-694, 2008).     

Trade and Factor Market Reforms in China

The benefits of the multi‐faceted liberalization of the Chinese economy can be seen in various indicators of economic development. The rate of growth of the economy, the flow of foreign investment in China, and rising quality of life are some of the indicators of gains from the liberalization process. Most of the research has focused on the role of trade reforms on the Chinese economy. There is, however, one unfinished agenda that has not been addressed adequately by policy makers as well as academia, i.e. labor‐sector reforms. In this paper, we analyze the effect of labor market liberalization in China using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. Most CGE models on China using a neoclassical approach assume that there is a single wage rate for the economy. This is a simplifying assumption and has strong implications. Studies show that inter‐industry wage differentials persist even after accounting for obvious explanations such as differences in human capital or job hazard. Inter‐industry structural rigidities in developing countries lead to wage differentials. In China, labor mobility from the rural to the urban sector is restricted. Furthermore, China is on its way to joining the WTO agreement. As a signatory to the WTO agreement, China would be required to reform its trade sector by eliminating tariffs. In this paper, we explicitly model wage differentials in the case of the Chinese economy. Various counterfactual experiments have been conducted to introduce efficiency by the removal of factor market differentials in China in the presence and absence of tariff and non‐tariff barriers. Our results indicate that factor market reforms are essential to the realization of full gains from accession to the WTO agreement.     

A queuing/management consideration on Japanese production systems

A single-stage lot/cell production under a Poisson arrival and exponential service in a batch is considered. The three economic queuing models of push and pull types are presented, an economic comparison of push versus pull types is considered, and a strategic management/design consideration to the lot production is given. First, the total expected operating cost is given for the three queuing models including the Omote-Kanban type similar to VMI. Second, the push versus pull system is discussed from a view of setup time, inventory or operating cost, and it is ascertained that the three types are alternative. Finally, a strategic management basis for economic traffic, leadtime setting is given, and discussed by the introduction of production matrix on 2-stage design.