Bayesian updating of atmospheric dispersion after a nuclear accident

Summary.  We consider a Bayesian forecasting system to predict the dispersal of contamination on a large scale grid in the event of an accidental release of radioactivity. The statistical model is built on a physical model for atmospheric dispersion and transport called MATCH. Our spatiotemporal model is a dynamic linear model where the state parameters are the (essentially, deterministic) predictions of MATCH; the distributions of these are updated sequentially in the light of monitoring data. One of the distinguishing features of the model is that the number of these parameters is very large (typically several hundreds of thousands) and we discuss practical issues arising in its implementation as a realtime model. Our procedures have been checked against a variational approach which is used widely in the atmospheric sciences. The results of the model are applied to test data from a tracer experiment.     

A circular-cone test for testing homogeneity against a simple tree order

Several methods exist for the problem of testing the equality of several treatments against the one-sided alternative that the treatments are better than the control. These methods include Dunnett's test, Bartholomew's likelihood-ratio test, the Abelson-Tukey-Schaafsma-Smid optimal-contrast test, and the multiple-contrast test of Mukerjee, Robertson, and Wright. A new test is proposed based on an approximation of the likelihood-ratio test of Bartholomew. This test involves using a circular cone in place of the alternative-hypothesis cone. The circular-cone test has excellent power characteristics similar to those of Bartholomew's test. Moreover, it has the advantages of being simpler to compute and may be used with unequal sample sizes.     

Art therapy as a modality for crisis intervention: Children express reactions to violence in their community

Ten days after the Symbionese Liberation Army's shoot out in Los Angeles in 1974, the Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Department of Family Child Psychiatry, Thalians Community Mental Health Center, sent a crisis team of three psychotherapists to a school in the black community. The psychotherapists used an art therapy approach with a third grade classroom of 21 black children. The team's procedure helped the children ventilate their reactions to a frightening event which occurred in their neighborhood. This paper describes the art therapy techniques which were utilized, the children's vivid pictorial and verbal expressions accompanied by the psychological aspects of their responses.     

A reflected feature space for CART

We present an algorithm for learning oblique decision trees, called HHCART(G). Our decision tree combines learning concepts from two classification trees, HHCART and Geometric Decision Tree (GDT). HHCART(G) is a simplified HHCART algorithm that uses linear structure in the training examples, captured by a modified GDT angle bisector, to define splitting directions. At each node, we reflect the training examples with respect to the modified angle bisector to align this linear structure with the coordinate axes. Searching axis parallel splits in this reflected feature space provides an efficient and effective way of finding oblique splits in the original feature space. Our method is much simpler than HHCART because it only considers one reflected feature space for node splitting. HHCART considers multiple reflected feature spaces for node splitting making it more computationally intensive to build. Experimental results show that HHCART(G) is an effective classifier, producing compact trees with similar or better results than several other decision trees, including GDT and HHCART trees.     

Revisiting the relationship between public relations and marketing: Encroachment and social media

Although public relations and marketing trade presses regularly discuss the conflict between the functions (e.g., Ecker, 2013; Havartin, 2013), academic researchers focused on the issue primarily in the 1980s and 1990s. The drop in public relations and marketing encroachment research does not parallel a drop in encroachment in practice, especially in light of today’s social media environment. In fact, historic tension between public relations and marketing intensified with the incorporation of social media into communication efforts. This paper updates the study of encroachment by reviewing the historical views of the topic, proposes ways that social media use has intensified issues related to role encroachment between public relations and marketing professionals, and outlines questions to guide future study of these topics.     

Short Break and Respite Services for Disabled Children in England: Comparing Children's and Parents' Perspectives of Their Impact on Children

Researchers, health and social care workers often seek to understand the perspectives of children; but gathering views directly from children can present difficulties. Parents are often asked to provide accounts of children's feelings or opinions on the assumption that their proxy reports are accurate and unproblematic. This qualitative thematic analysis of open‐question responses from 352 parents and 73 disabled children examines their accounts of the impact of short break services on disabled children. Participants' perspectives differed; children tended to describe immediate outcomes such as enjoying activities and participation; parents acknowledged these, but focused on longer term developmental outcomes for children.     

Diffusion in the Face of Failure: The Evolution of a Management Innovation

Recent work has questioned the institutional model of management innovation by highlighting interactions between the field‐level actors engaged in diffusing innovations and implementation of the innovation at organization level. Focusing on the adaptation of management innovations to their context, rather than their creation, we review this work and use it to analyse the global diffusion of resource planning (RP), counter posing this case with the widely studied example of total quality management. Both of these innovations experienced a high level of failure when implemented by organizations. Total quality management's diffusion was characterized by a ‘boom and bust’ cycle. RP, however, has continued to spread globally in the form of its variants: MRP, MRPII and ERP. Our analysis seeks to account for the long‐run diffusion of RP through a processual model which highlights the interplay between RP's discursive framing at field level, the affordances of the innovation itself and its adaptation within organizations. This demonstrates how objectifying RP in software not only helped to spread the innovation but also allowed field‐level actors to differentiate its development as a successful innovation from the many failures experienced by organizations attempting to adapt it.     

Managerial Self-efficacy and Managerial Performance

Some of the main features of Bandura's self-efficacy concept are presented. The importance of the concept to the work organization and to individual performance is discussed. A field study is described. The first part of the study involved the development of parallel versions of a scale to assess managerial self-efficacy. Data concerning the psychometric properties of the parallel version of the scale show that they are reliable and independent of social desirability. The second part of the study provided evidence of the relationships between scores on the managerial self-efficacy scale and supervisors’ ratings of managers’ performance. The results indicate that managerial self-efficacy correlates with work performance ratings.