Communicating Actionable Risk for Terrorism and Other Hazards⋆

We propose a shift in emphasis when communicating to people when the objective is to motivate household disaster preparedness actions. This shift is to emphasize the communication of preparedness actions (what to do about risk) rather than risk itself. We have called this perspective “communicating actionable risk,” and it is grounded in diffusion of innovations and communication theories. A representative sample of households in the nation was analyzed using a path analytic framework. Preparedness information variables (including content, density, and observation), preparedness mediating variables (knowledge, perceived effectiveness, and milling), and preparedness actions taken were modeled. Clear results emerged that provide a strong basis for communicating actionable risk, and for the conclusion both that information observed (seeing preparedness actions that other have taken) and information received (receiving recommendations about what preparedness actions to take) play key, although different, roles in motivating preparedness actions among the people in our nation.     

KAIGAI-SHIJO Socialization in Toronto

Abstract  This article is based on a study of kaigai-shijo (children of Japanese temporary overseas residents) in Toronto, Canada. Although the theme of kikoku-shijo (returnee children) has been studied in considerable detail by Japanese (and a few American) scholars, the phase that precedes the return to Japan, that is, the children's experience while overseas has been relatively neglected. The article argues that kaigai-shijo are not only a subject worth studying in their own right, but that understanding their experience is crucial in order to fully appreciate the phenomenon of kikoku-shijo . The researcher conducted a study of kaigai-shijo in Toronto, focusing on their patterns of socialization. While taking into account findings from the few previous studies on kaigai-shijo , this study used concepts from the North American literature on socialization and ethnic groups studies. kaigai-shijo socialization was thus conceptualized as the combination of two processes: the adoption of host cultural patterns, and the retention of Japanese cultural patterns. Three main variations in kaigai-shijo socialization were found: 1) 'Host culture oriented', 2) Japanese culture-oriented, and 3) 'dual'. Some of the most relevant factors in explaining these variations were the age of the child (at the time of departure from Japan and at the time of the research), the parents' strategy of adaptation, and the length of stay in the host country (actual and remaining).     

Simple Computation of Maximum Likelihood Estimates in Latent Class Model with Equality and Constant Constraints

A simple computational method for estimation of parameters via a type of EM algorithm is proposed in restricted latent class analysis, where equality and constant constraints are considered. These constraints create difficulty in estimation. In order to simply and stably estimate parameters in restricted latent class analysis, a simple computational method using only first-order differentials is proposed, where the step-halving method is adopted. A simulation study shows that in almost all cases the new method gives parameter sequences monotonously increasing the Q-function in the EM algorithm. Analysis of real data is provided.     

Asymptotic Inference with Incomplete Data

This article discusses asymptotic theory for the maximum likelihood estimator based on incomplete data. Although much literature has implicitly assumed the basic properties of the estimator, such as consistency and asymptotic normality, it is hard to find their precise and comprehensive proofs. In this article, we first show that under MAR an estimator based on the likelihood function ignoring the missing-data mechanism is strongly consistent. The estimator is then shown to be asymptotically normal. When the data are NMAR and when the data are MAR without parameter distinctness, the consistency and the asymptotic normality are shown. Several examples are provided.     

东亚合作的区域主义分析

1997年东亚经济危机揭开了东亚区域一体化的序幕,ASEAN+3框架下的金融合作极大地推动了区域合作的进程.在经济危机面前,以区域主义替代华盛顿共识下的全球标准,谋划建立地区安全体系是东亚区域合作的实质.东北亚是东亚地区最重要的次区域,这一地区内部各国间积极的经济、人员交流为推进地区合作创造了条件,但是同时也存在很多障碍.只有通过民间的交流增进相互理解和信任,达成次区域合作,才能使东亚最终走向一体化.     

A New Test on High-Dimensional Mean Vector Without Any Assumption on Population Covariance Matrix

In this paper, a new test for the equality of the mean vectors between a two groups with the same number of the observations in high-dimensional data. The existing tests for this problem require a strong condition on the population covariance matrix. The proposed test in this paper does not require such conditions for it. This test will be obtained in a general model, that is, the data need not be normally distributed.     

Use of non-normality in structural equation modeling: Application to direction of causation

Structural equation modeling (SEM) typically utilizes first- and second-order moment structures. This limits its applicability since many unidentified models and many equivalent models that researchers would like to distinguish are created. In this paper, we relax this restriction and assume non-normal distributions on exogenous variables. We shall provide a solution to the problems of underidentifiability and equivalence of SEM models by making use of non-normality (higher-order moment structures). The non-normal SEM is applied to finding the possible direction of a path in simple regression models. The method of (generalized) least squares is employed to estimate model parameters. A test statistic for examining a fit of a model is proposed. A simulation result and a real data example are reported to study how the non-normal SEM approach works empirically.