Analysis of Competing Risks by Using Bayesian Smoothing

We consider the competing risks set-up. In many practical situations, the conditional probability of the cause of failure given the failure time is of direct interest. We propose to model the competing risks by the overall hazard rate and the conditional probabilities rather than the cause-specific hazards. We adopt a Bayesian smoothing approach for both quantities of interest. Illustrations are given at the end.     

The response functions for competing risks

The competing risks data consist of a pair (T,δ) where T≧0 can be interpreted as the failure time and δ as the identifier of the risk causing the failure. In many practical situations, the main interest lies in studying the inter-relationships between the probability structures of the failure time under various risks. Here, we consider two risks and propose the Junctional relationships between the probability structure of (T,δ=1) and (T,δ=2) by time-dependent scale and shape shifts. Also, a model which raptures the relative aging of a unit under the two risks is proposed. The necessary theory for confidence estimation of these shift functions is developed. These techniques are illustrated through several data sets available in the literature.     

Fractionally integrated ARMA for crude palm oil prices prediction: case of potentially overdifference

Dealing with stationarity remains an unsolved problem. Some of the time series data, especially crude palm oil (CPO) prices persist towards nonstationarity in the long-run data. This dilemma forces the researchers to conduct first-order difference. The basic idea is that to obtain the stationary data that is considered as a good strategy to overcome the nonstationary counterparts. An opportune remark as it is, this proxy may lead to overdifference. The CPO prices trend elements have not been attenuated but nearly annihilated. Therefore, this paper presents the usefulness of autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) model as the solution towards the nonstationary persistency of CPO prices in the long-run data. In this study, we employed daily historical Free-on-Board CPO prices in Malaysia. A comparison was made between the ARFIMA over the existing autoregressive-integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Here, we employed three statistical evaluation criteria in order to measure the performance of the applied models. The general conclusion that can be derived from this paper is that the usefulness of the ARFIMA model outperformed the existing ARIMA model.     

Halal value creation: its role in adding value and enabling logistics service

Abstract

The need to implement halal value creation into logistics and supply chains has been recognised recently. Yet, there is a lack of efforts to leverage resources and capabilities in contributing to the halal value creation for competitive advantage and subsequently firm performance. The purpose of this paper is to understand the halal value creation of current practices and its role in adding value and enabling logistics service. A structure interview of seven third-party logistics (3PL) providers is conducted to provide more precise perception about works by viewing with the lens prescribed by practitioners rather than reviews. The results draw the novel practices of halal value creation in logistics, that have not been revealed and further identifies five emerging resources of ‘resource-based halal logistics’. These create innovation capability (ability to launch successful halal goods/services) in logistics services, which are transformed into benefits of profits for 3PLs and value for customers.     

Confidence bounds for the joint survival function in the dependent competing risks setup

In the competing risks set up with two dependent competing risks, the joint distribution of (X₁,X₂), the latent lifetimes of the system under the two risks, is not identifiable on the basis of the distribution of the actual observation (T, δ) where T = min(X₁, X₂) and δ = I(T=X₁), Using Peterson's (1976) bounds, we have obtained conservative pointwise as well as simultaneous confidence bounds for the unidentifiable joint survival function. In an example we evaluate the confidence bounds and Indicate where the estimated joint survival function in the independent case, lies within them.