An Age-Period-Cohort Approach to Analyse Late-Life Depression Prevalence in Six European Countries, 2004–2016

European Journal of Population - Late-life depression is a condition that affects an ever-growing share of the population in ageing societies. While depression prevalence varies across countries...     

Insights into the appropriate level of disaggregation for efficient time series model forecasting

This paper provides a potentially valuable insight on how to assess if the forecasts from an autoregressive moving average model based on aggregated data could be substantially improved through disaggregation. It is argued that, theoretically, the absence of moving average (MA) terms indicates that no forecasting efficiency improvements can be achieved through disaggregation. In practice, it is found that there is a strong correlation between the statistical significance of the MA component in the aggregate model and the magnitude of the forecast mean square error (MSE) decreases that can be achieved through disaggregation. That is, if a model includes significant MA terms, the forecast MSE improvements that may be gained from disaggregation could be substantial. Otherwise, they are more likely to be relatively small or non-existent.     

An algorithm to compute the cdf of the product of two normal random variables

This paper provides a fortran algorithm that can be used to compute the cdf of the product of two normal distribution random variables. We also give references that provide mathematical properties, tables, and applications of this distribution     

Efficiency in Games With Markovian Private Information

We study repeated Bayesian games with communication and observable actions in which the players' privately known payoffs evolve according to an irreducible Markov chain whose transitions are independent across players. Our main result implies that, generically, any Pareto‐efficient payoff vector above a stationary minmax value can be approximated arbitrarily closely in a perfect Bayesian equilibrium as the discount factor goes to 1. As an intermediate step, we construct an approximately efficient dynamic mechanism for long finite horizons without assuming transferable utility.     

Mortality analysis of persons with disabilities in Argentina by age,sex and duration of benefit, 2015–16

This article describes the differential mortality of Argentina’s disability pension beneficiaries during the 2015–16 period, based on National Social Security Administration (Administración Nacional de la Seguridad Social – ANSES) payment records. It compares data for those with an assessed disability with overall population data, as well as with available international data (from Canada, Chile, Mexico, and the United States of America). In addition to breaking down mortality rates for people with disabilities by age and sex, it also factors in duration of benefit, establishing an inverse correlation between benefit duration and mortality.     

Crawling Predicts Infants’ Understanding of Agents’ Navigation of Obstacles

We investigated whether crawling versus noncrawling infants interpret an agent's movements around an obstacle as goal‐directed. Infants (6–9 months) were habituated to a self‐propelled circle jumping over an obstacle to reach a goal. When the obstacle was removed, infants who crawled (n = 13) showed longer looking time to the familiar but now nonrational jumping path versus a novel but rational straight‐line path. Noncrawlers (n = 17) did not discriminate. Looking preference was independent of age and speed of habituation. These findings support the claim that infants’ processing of agency emerges early and applies to all agents, but stress the role of experience in the development of action interpretation.     

发展的历史, 现代性的困境 ———以批判性的发展研究视角审视全球化

文章旨在通过回顾批判性发展研究以及有关现代性的争论中历史的和现今的主要趋势，借以构想对中国农村发展研究有所启迪的相关问题。同时，本文简要地呈现了一个哥伦比亚地区雨林保护的案例研究。文章第一部分从话语与社会实践的维度对发展进行了历史回顾，指出发展不仅是近代以来（二战以后）的产物，且具有更深远的历史渊源（植根于欧洲现代性），并以探讨后发展、另类现代性、非现代性等概念作为小结。文章第二部分关于哥伦比亚的案例研究，介绍了该地区某社会运动如何构建自身的政治生态，并一度对该地区的发展方向产生重大影响。文章第三部分提出了一个大纲式框架，旨在从生态、文化和经济差异的角度思辨发展。作为结论，本文提出了一些可能与中国农村发展具有相关性的问题。     

Window strikes: bird collisions in a Neotropical green city

Urban Ecosystems - Window strikes are among the most worrisome causes of bird mortality. Being responsible for billions of avian deaths, bird-window collisions have been widely studied in the US...     

Can Migration Foster Development in Mexico? The Case of Poverty and Inequality

The impact of migration on development can be analysed from a number of perspectives. This article focuses on poverty and inequality. It assesses the relative contribution of migrants to Mexico′s economy through remittances, compared to other Latin American countries; analyses the distributional impact of remittances (with an emphasis on the poor), and compares this impact to the counterfactual impact of migrants’ stay‐at‐home income. It explains the processes leading to scant economic success rates among poor international migrants. Finally, it describes the nature and impact of current Mexican migrant‐oriented policies, and recommends a shift in focus, to lessen emigration, increase the income of migrants, promote returns, and bolster the economic impact of returning migrants.