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The Role of Behavioral Responses in the Total Economic Consequences of Terrorist Attacks on U.S. Air Travel Targets 下载免费PDF全文
Adam Rose Misak Avetisyan Heather Rosoff William J. Burns Paul Slovic Oswin Chan 《Risk analysis》2017,37(7):1403-1418
U.S. airports and airliners are prime terrorist targets. Not only do the facilities and equipment represent high‐value assets, but the fear and dread that is spread by such attacks can have tremendous effects on the U.S. economy. This article presents the methodology, data, and estimates of the macroeconomic impacts stemming from behavioral responses to a simulated terrorist attack on a U.S. airport and on a domestic airliner. The analysis is based on risk‐perception surveys of these two scenarios. The responses relate to reduced demand for airline travel, shifts to other modes, spending on nontravel items, and savings of potential travel expenditures by U.S. resident passengers considering flying domestic routes. We translate these responses to individual spending categories and feed these direct impact results into a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the U.S. economy to ascertain the indirect and total impacts on both the airline industry and the economy as a whole. Overall, the estimated impacts on GDP of both types of attacks exceed $10B. We find that the behavioral economic impacts are almost an order of magnitude higher than the ordinary business interruption impacts for the airliner attack and nearly two orders of magnitude higher for the airport attack. The results are robust to sensitivity tests on the travel behavior of U.S. residents in response to terrorism. 相似文献
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Natalie Oswin 《International Feminist Journal of Politics》2013,15(3):347-364
The exigent needs of refugee women necessitate feminist attempts to use legal mechanisms, however imperfect, to their benefit. However, the temptation to overestimate the importance of feminist gains in this realm must be avoided due to current constraints within the international refugee regime. Most forcibly displaced persons never reach the borders of western countries to claim asylum. Moreover, western 'refugee-receiving' countries are effectively closing their borders to migration claimed on strictly humanitarian grounds. Therefore, while feminists have successfully claimed a place for refugee women within protective rights mechanisms, they have been granted only a small portion of what is already extremely finite territory. Given this troubling state of affairs, I suggest that although proven avenues within refugee law must not be abandoned, the time is right for the sustained exploration of new and creative modes of engagement within refugee rights discourse. In this vein, the second half of the paper draws extensively upon the work of feminist legal theorist Jennifer Nedelsky to suggestively consider some possible alternatives for feminist theory and praxis. 相似文献
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Oswin Aichholzer Franz Aurenhammer Günter Rote Yin-Feng Xu 《Journal of Combinatorial Optimization》1998,2(4):361-369
The well-known greedy triangulation GT(S) of a finite point set S is obtained by inserting compatible edges in increasing length order, where an edge is compatible if it does not cross previously inserted ones. Exploiting the concept of so-called light edges, we introduce a definition of GT(S) that does not rely on the length ordering of the edges. Rather, it provides a decomposition of GT(S) into levels, and the number of levels allows us to bound the total edge length of GT(S). In particular, we show |GT(S)| 3 · 2k + 1|MWT(S)|, where k is the number of levels and MWT(S) is the minimum-weight triangulation of S. 相似文献
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