On Optimality of Bayesian Wavelet Estimators

Abstract.  We investigate the asymptotic optimality of several Bayesian wavelet estimators, namely, posterior mean, posterior median and Bayes Factor, where the prior imposed on wavelet coefficients is a mixture of a mass function at zero and a Gaussian density. We show that in terms of the mean squared error, for the properly chosen hyperparameters of the prior, all the three resulting Bayesian wavelet estimators achieve optimal minimax rates within any prescribed Besov space     for p  ≥ 2. For 1 ≤  p  < 2, the Bayes Factor is still optimal for (2 s +2)/(2 s +1) ≤  p  < 2 and always outperforms the posterior mean and the posterior median that can achieve only the best possible rates for linear estimators in this case.     

LIMITED ASSET MARKET PARTICIPATION AND THE EURO AREA CRISIS: AN EMPIRICAL DSGE MODEL

We estimate a medium‐scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the Euro area with limited asset market participation (LAMP). Our results suggest that in the recent European Monetary Union years LAMP is particularly sizable (39% during 1993–2012) and important to understand business cycle features. The Bayes factor and the forecasting performance show that the LAMP model is preferred to its representative household counterpart. In the representative agent model the risk premium shock is the main driver of output volatility in order to match consumption correlation with output. In the LAMP model this role is played by the investment‐specific shock, because non‐Ricardian households introduce a Keynesian multiplier effect and raise the correlation between consumption and investments. We also detect the contractionary role of monetary policy shocks during the post‐2007 years. In this period consumption of non‐Ricardian households fell dramatically, but this outcome might have been avoided by a more aggressive policy stance. (JEL C11, C13, C32, E21, E32, E37)     

Axiomatic measurement of multidimensional well-being inequality: Some distributional questions

This paper focuses on two main issues which are crucial for improving on the analysis of multidimensional inequality: the effect of both the dispersion of well-being attributes across individuals and the interaction among attributes on the measurement of multidimensional well-being. To approach these distributional questions we rely on the Atkinson, Kolm, Sen (hereafter AKS) methodology, which defines a multidimensional inequality index consistent with the Pigou–Dalton principle. This index can be decomposed into univariate indexes belonging to the class of AKS indexes, and a residual term accounting for the interaction across dimensions. The empirical application investigates the evolution of inequality in well-being across some EU countries between 1994 and 2001.Since the multidimensional index depends on the values assigned to the parameters, we test the sensitivity of the trend in well-being to the degree of inequality aversion on each dimension. Our empirical results summarize the evolution of inequality for the indicators of well-being considered both separately and jointly, over time and across countries.     

Two Moments of the Logitnormal Distribution

We display the first two moment functions of the Logitnormal(μ, σ²) family of distributions, conveniently described in terms of the Normal mean, μ, and the Normal signal-to-noise ratio, μ/σ, parameters that generate the family. Long neglected on account of the numerical integrations required to compute them, awareness of these moment functions should aid the sensible interpretation of logistic regression statistics and the specification of “diffuse” prior distributions in hierarchical models, which can be deceiving. We also use numerical integration to compare the correlation between bivariate Logitnormal variables with the correlation between the bivariate Normal variables from which they are transformed.     

Parental altruism and nest leaving in Europe: evidence from a retrospective survey

We use retrospective life-history data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe to assess parental altruism through the effect of parental resources and home characteristics on the age at which individuals now aged 50 or more left the nest in 13 countries. We show that the nest leaving age has declined from one cohort to the next and that the tendency has been of a relative decline in leaving one’s parents to start a family and an increase in leaving home to pursue higher education, even if the first pattern was still the most common for the baby-boomers. We test an altruistic model where constrained parents push the child out, where less constrained “proximity altruistic” parents can help the child by providing a home or even, for the richest “active altruists”, help the child leave the nest. Taking into account the endogenous child’s choices of education, we find that most parents helped by being proximity altruists, while some helped their children move out and that the quality of the home had an important influence on the nest leaving age.     

The role of macroeconomic policies in the global crisis

This paper argues that the lack of timely and decisive policy action to correct domestic and external imbalances contributed crucially to the build-up of financial excesses that led to the financial crisis and the Great Recession. We focus on 2002–2007 and perform a number of counterfactual simulations to investigate two central elements of the story, namely: (a) an over-expansionary US monetary policy and the absence of effective macro-prudential supervision, which permitted a prolonged expansion of debt-financed consumer spending and (b) the choice by China and other emerging countries to pursue an export-led growth strategy supported by pegging their currencies to the US dollar, in conjunction with sluggish domestic demand in major advanced economies characterized by low potential output growth. The results of the simulations lend support to the view that if substantial, globally coordinated demand rebalancing had been undertaken early on, the macroeconomic and financial imbalances would not have accumulated to the extent that they did and the financial turmoil might have had less drastic global consequences.     

Managerial reforms,institutional complexity and individuals: an empirical analysis of higher education

Journal of Management and Governance - Many reforms have aimed at introducing and developing managerial tools in public organisations. However, their limited degree of translation is still...     

The dynamics of homeownership among the 50+ in Europe

We use life history data covering households in 13 European countries to analyse residential moves past the age of 50. We observe four types of moves: renting to owning, owning to renting, trading up or trading down for homeowners. We find that in the younger group (aged 50–64), trading up and purchase decisions prevail; in the older group (65+), trading down and selling are more common. Overall, moves are rare, particularly in countries characterised by high transaction costs. Most moves are driven by changes in household composition (divorce, widowhood, nest leaving by children), but economic factors play a role: low-income households who are house-rich and cash-poor are more likely to sell their home late in life.     

Age,Health and Life Satisfaction Among Older Europeans

In this paper we investigate how age affects the self-reported level of life satisfaction among the elderly in Europe. By using a vignette approach, we find evidence that age influences life satisfaction through two counterbalancing channels. On the one hand, controlling for the effects of all other variables, the own perceived level of life satisfaction increases with age. On the other hand, given the same true level of life satisfaction, older respondents are more likely to rank themselves as “dissatisfied” with their life than younger individuals. Detrimental health conditions and physical limitations play a crucial role in explaining scale biases in the reporting style of older individuals.