OPTIMAL SOCCER STRATEGIES

This paper examines soccer teams' strategic choices about the extent of offense/defense to adopt in competing with other teams. The sample is European Champions League group stage matches played between 1997–1998 and 2009–2010. We begin by developing a characterization of teams' strategies (extent of offense or defense) using principal component analysis. This is used to estimate the relationship between a team's probabilities of scoring and conceding goals and its chosen strategy. Knowing that relationship, it is then possible to derive a team's optimal strategy, and to study how this varies in different situations (such as playing at home or away). A comparison between optimal and actual strategy reveals that teams appear to adopt more defensive strategies than is optimal. A notable feature of our study is that we model a team as choosing a strategy at the start of each match and also at half time, thereby incorporating a dynamic element. (JEL C23, C72, L83, Z00)     

Trend in Personal Finances and the Vote

This study investigates the relationship between perceived trendin family finances and voting for candidates of the incumbentpresidential party. Analysis of CPS/SRC survey data for the1956–1974 period provides considerable support for theresearch hypothesis of maximizing economic rationality at thepolls. A normal vote analysis supports the authenticity of thesefindings and reveals relatively strong effects in subpresidentialelectoral contests. Comparisons are drawn between the aggregateeffect of these perceptions on the outcome of congressionalelections and that of changes in per capita personal income,the main explanatory variable in leading studies based on aggregatedata.     

State Management, Trade Unions and Politics in Brazil

Abstract The state in Brazil not only built industrial plants in the mid twentieth century, but also established patterns of control and domination over the workers of these companies. State-management purposes were to 'mould' a 'Brazilian worker'for the nation' and to extend control beyond the point of production. Evidence is presented to explain these strategies of domination and to show how the workers built their resistance, both at work or through trade union participation. This is developed into a discussion of the process of politicisation through trade union action in the state companies and the disagreements that arose between militant workers and workers with 'factory consciousness'.     

Adaptive Proposal Construction for Reversible Jump MCMC

Abstract. In this paper, we show how the construction of a trans‐dimensional equivalent of the Gibbs sampler can be used to obtain a powerful suite of adaptive algorithms suitable for trans‐dimensional MCMC samplers. These algorithms adapt at the local scale, optimizing performance at each iteration in contrast to the globally adaptive scheme proposed by others for the fixeddimensional problem. Our adaptive scheme ensures suitably high acceptance rates for MCMC and RJMCMC proposals without the need for (often prohibitively) time‐consuming pilot‐tuning exercises. We illustrate our methods using the problem of Bayesian model discrimination for the important class of autoregressive time series models and, through the use of a variety of prior and proposal structures, demonstrate their ability to provide powerful and effective adaptive sampling schemes.     

Memory and (Dissemi) Nation: Völkerschlachtdenkmal and Deutsche Bücherei at Leipzig 1813/1913 Between Real Bones and Symbolic Letters1

Abstract At Leipzig, the monument to the victorious battle against Napoleon in 1813 was inaugurated one hundred years after the event. The article raises the questions: how far is the authority of the monument dependent on material relics (bones) and what correspondences are there between symbolic commemoration and the infrastructure of national memory as represented by the neighbouring German Library at Leipzig. The dimension of sacred space and time’ is set against the hardware of agencies of memory, while an archaeological perception serves methodologically as a challenge to historical discourse in processing the material or textual archives of the past.     

COORDINATION ALTERNATIVES IN A MANUFACTURER/DEALER INVENTORY SYSTEM UNDER STOCHASTIC DEMAND

This paper introduces a stochastic model of a distribution system where the stocking location is owned by a dealer (or retailer) and the product is supplied by a manufacturer. Inventory is managed by the dealer, and the manufacturer is responsible for delivery of the product through both regular replenishment and expedite shipment modes. The dealer and the manufacturer share the goal of providing a high level of customer service. Demand, moreover, is a function of the service level offered to the market by the dealer. We develop optimal stock control policies for the cases where each decision maker in turn is dominant and acts unilaterally while being constrained by the supply/demand linkages of the system. We also develop an optimum policy for the case where both levels are managed under centralized control (i.e., both levels cooperate). Results indicate that the expected profit for a dominant dealer (or dominant manufacturer) is higher under decentralized control than the optimal solution for either under centralized control. However, the centralized solution is a global-optimal solution and therefore will guarantee longterm stability. Differences between the various solutions are analyzed explicitly to estimate the cost of coordination.     

Goodness-of-fit Tests Based on the Kernel Density Estimator

Abstract.  Given an i.i.d. sample drawn from a density f on the real line, the problem of testing whether f is in a given class of densities is considered. Testing procedures constructed on the basis of minimizing the L ₁-distance between a kernel density estimate and any density in the hypothesized class are investigated. General non-asymptotic bounds are derived for the power of the test. It is shown that the concentration of the data-dependent smoothing factor and the 'size' of the hypothesized class of densities play a key role in the performance of the test. Consistency and non-asymptotic performance bounds are established in several special cases, including testing simple hypotheses, translation/scale classes and symmetry. Simulations are also carried out to compare the behaviour of the method with the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and an L ₂ density-based approach due to Fan [ Econ. Theory 10 (1994) 316].     

North American Travel Narratives and the Ordering/Othering of South America (c. 1810–1860)

Abstract During the post-independence period, North American authors of travel narratives engaged in a double construction of "South America": the othering typical of other travel narratives and the ordering of the diversity of the region's societies, economies and polities according to gender, racial, and class categories. Describing social and institutional landscapes, authors projected preoccupations common to the expansive cultures of North America into "South America." Unable to homogenize the Other or naturalize the landscape, travellers used the space of the narrative to reflect upon the nature and future of "America".     

Gender,Racial, and Ethnic Disclosure in NIH K-Award Funded Diabetes and Obesity Clinical Trials∗

In 1993, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) passed The Revitalization Act (Subtitle B) which mandated that all NIH funded clinical trials have “appropriate representation” of minority and women subjects. Our aim was to evaluate the impact of the mandate by examining the reporting and inclusion of minority and female subjects into NIH K-Award funded clinical trials, addressing the minority predominant diagnoses of diabetes and clinical obesity. Using the CRISP search engine and PUBMED, we selected publications published by the National Institute on Aging (NIA) and National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (NIDDK) K-grant recipients during 1989–2004, associated with all the diabetes and obesity clinical trials. Studies were stratified into three timeline categories (1989–1993, pre-mandate; 1993–1996, post-mandate, and 1997–present, well past mandate) to evaluate trends in the recruiting of minorities and women before, during, and after the passing of the Revitalization Act. Of the 165 papers, only 37% disclosed race, a number that did not improve over time (p = .15), whereas 92% disclosed gender. Clinical trials that focused on females increased across the 3 timeframes (p < .001) for diabetes studies but not obesity studies. Overall, disclosure of race declined over the 3 timeframes whereas individually, the disclosure of African Americans improved.