Risk Analysis: Celebrating the Accomplishments and Embracing Ongoing Challenges

As part of the celebration of the 40th anniversary of the Society for Risk Analysis and Risk Analysis: An International Journal, this essay reviews the 10 most important accomplishments of risk analysis from 1980 to 2010, outlines major accomplishments in three major categories from 2011 to 2019, discusses how editors circulate authors’ accomplishments, and proposes 10 major risk-related challenges for 2020–2030. Authors conclude that the next decade will severely test the field of risk analysis.     

Sibling Conflict and Ineffective Parenting as Predictors of Adolescent Boys' Antisocial Behavior and Peer Difficulties: Additive and Interactional Effects

Extensive sibling conflict is predictive of multiple poor adjustment outcomes during adolescence and early adulthood, but the frequency and developmental impact of such conflict may be conditional on ineffective parenting. Thus, sibling conflict may add to or amplify the negative effects of ineffective parenting on adolescent boys' adjustment. Hypotheses in this study were that: (a) multiple informant measures of problematic parent–child relationships and of sibling conflict would form distinct constructs rather than a single negative family process construct, and (b) ineffective parenting, sibling conflict, and their interaction measured at ages 10 to 12 would predict boys' concurrent status and developmental trajectories for antisocial behavior and peer adjustment across a 4‐year span from ages 12 to 16. Confirmatory factor and latent growth modeling analyses were consistent with these hypotheses, demonstrating the important developmental impact of sibling conflict.     

二元方程式F(x,y)=0确定的函数曲线渐近线的探讨

给出二元方程式F(x,y)=0确定的函数曲线渐近线的几个结果。     

李贺和比喻

李贺的比喻和一般比喻差别很大,他经常颠倒喻词和被喻词之间的关系,给人带来震撼。这种比喻方法,不仅表现了李贺心中万物平等的思想,也展现了迥异现实的另一世界的景象。     

Sampling Returns for Realized Variance Calculations: Tick Time or Transaction Time?

This article introduces a new model for transaction prices in the presence of market microstructure noise in order to study the properties of the price process on two different time scales, namely, transaction time where prices are sampled with every transaction and tick time where prices are sampled with every price change. Both sampling schemes have been used in the literature on realized variance, but a formal investigation into their properties has been lacking. Our empirical and theoretical results indicate that the return dynamics in transaction time are very different from those in tick time and the choice of sampling scheme can therefore have an important impact on the properties of realized variance. For RV we find that tick time sampling is superior to transaction time sampling in terms of mean-squared-error, especially when the level of noise, number of ticks, or the arrival frequency of efficient price moves is low. Importantly, we show that while the microstructure noise may appear close to IID in transaction time, in tick time it is highly dependent. As a result, bias correction procedures that rely on the noise being independent, can fail in tick time and are better implemented in transaction time.     

A circular-cone test for testing homogeneity against a simple tree order

Several methods exist for the problem of testing the equality of several treatments against the one-sided alternative that the treatments are better than the control. These methods include Dunnett's test, Bartholomew's likelihood-ratio test, the Abelson-Tukey-Schaafsma-Smid optimal-contrast test, and the multiple-contrast test of Mukerjee, Robertson, and Wright. A new test is proposed based on an approximation of the likelihood-ratio test of Bartholomew. This test involves using a circular cone in place of the alternative-hypothesis cone. The circular-cone test has excellent power characteristics similar to those of Bartholomew's test. Moreover, it has the advantages of being simpler to compute and may be used with unequal sample sizes.