Changes in Americans' Policy Preferences, 1935-1979

Using responses to 3,315 survey questions asked of nationalsamples, we examine how policy preferences of Americans havechanged over the last 45 years. The data indicate that therehas been considerable stability in public opinion: responsesto half the 613 repeated policy items show no significant changeat all; approximately half the detectable changes were lessthan 10 percentage points; and rarely did preferences fluctuatesignificantly back and forth within a short time period. Foreignpolicy changes were no larger or more frequent than domestic,but they did tend to occur more abruptly. When opinion shiftsoccurred, they were not random or capricious; they were usuallyrelated to important changes in citizens' social and economicenvironments. Rapid shifts generally coincided with major eventsin international affairs or the economy.     

THE PERILS OF EXCELLENCE: BARRIERS TO EFFECTIVE PROCESS IMPROVEMENT IN PRODUCT-DRIVEN FIRMS

Several authors have suggested that a focus on manufacturing capability and on continued process improvement may be a powerful source of competitive advantage, yet many firms appear to have encountered great difficulties in taking advantage of this insight. This paper reports on the results of five these conducted under the auspices of the MIT Leaders for Manufacturing program at the Microwave Technology Division of the Hewlett-Packard Company. We found considerable evidence that the marginal returns to process development within the division were probably considerably higher than the division's cost of capital, suggesting that process improvement probably was underfunded despite the fact that improving manufacturing capability had been identified as a key strategic priority. We found no evidence that this “underfunding” reflected either a failure to recognize the problem or an overly hierarchical or rigid organization. Rather it appeared to flow from the historical strengths of the division. A devotion to leading-edge technical solutions and to immediate customer service at almost any price had created barriers to the effective funding of process improvement that were deeply rooted in the organizational structures, information systems, and formal and informal incentive structures that had evolved to support the division's historical emphasis on excellence on product design. Our results highlight the problems that very successful product-driven companies may encounter in attempting to make continual process improvement central to their strategic mission.     

The Polls: Regulation--Part I

Part II of this report will appear in the Fall 1984 issue.     

A MARKET-BASED TEST OF THE EFFECT OF MONETARY POLICY

This paper tests the rational expectations-natural rate hypothesis without basing expectations on time series estimates. Instead, market-based data are used. Unexpected money supply changes are determined via the Fisher Effect and the Quantity Equation. This introduces errors of a very different kind than the traditional approach, and yet the results are remarkably similar to those generated using time series estimates. Unanticipated money shocks are shown to exert a significant but only short-run effect on real output, suggesting only a short-run Phillips curve trade-off. Anticipated money growth appears to have no effect on real output.     

THE RISE OF PRESIDENTIAL POLLING THE NIXON WHITE HOUSE IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

This article traces the institutional development of presidentialpolling of public opinion. We suggest that Kennedy, Johnson,and especially Nixon developed the institution of the presidencyto include a "public opinion apparatus"—an operation thatwas centralized in the White House and devoted to assemblingpublic opinion data and conducting extensive public relationsactivities. According to interviews with former officials andarchival records, this apparatus had its roots in Kennedy's1960 presidential campaign, but during the Johnson and Nixonpresidencies it developed into a regular and enduring institutionfor connecting presidential activity with public opinion.     

Constituency, Party, and Representation in Congress

Using congressional districts as primary sampling units, the1978 National Election Survey provides improved (though stillimperfect) measures of district opinion. Together with Censusdata on district demography, roll call voting scales, and informationon congressmen's party and personal characteristics, they permita new examination of representation in Congress. Using thesedata we found a high degree of representation of district opinionon social welfare and (surprisingly) on women's issues, nearlyas much on racial issues, and much less on law and order oron abortion. District demography and congressmen's party addsubstantially to the explanation of roll call votes. There isnot, however, much "responsible party" representation in Congress.Future representation studies must face questions about thecomplex interplay among these factors, including reciprocalinfluences.