To Sample or Not to Sample? An Analysis of the Need for Salmonella Sampling of Smaller Poultry Processors

Within the European Union (EU), microbiological criteria (MC) sampling for Salmonella in poultry was introduced in 2005. In particular, processors had to meet a target of fewer than seven positive samples out of 50. However, processors producing small amounts of poultry meat did not have to sample if national authorities determined this was an acceptable risk. The U.K. Food Standards Agency (FSA) thus has a sampling regime based on throughput that allows smaller processors not to sample. In 2011, the limit of 7/50 was reduced to 5/50. Given the current uncertainty regarding U.K. trade relations with the EU, the U.K. FSA decided to conduct a new risk assessment of the risks of Salmonella produced by smaller processors, to determine whether sampling was now necessary. Current evidence suggests that an MC sampling regime in smaller slaughterhouses is not warranted from a national public health perspective. Because of the insensitivities of the MC sampling scheme, the introduction of MC sampling into smaller slaughterhouses would only be necessary if the suspected carcass prevalence was 15% or more. While our analysis is prone to uncertainty, we estimated that the carcass prevalence in smaller processors is below this. Thus, we recommended that the current sampling framework, allowing smaller processors not to sample, was still applicable.     

THE IMPACT OF ECB MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND COMMUNICATION ON THE YIELD CURVE

We use intraday changes in money market rates to construct indicators of news about monetary policy stemming separately from policy decisions and from official communication of the European Central Bank, and study their impact on the yield curve. We show that communication may lead to substantial revisions in expectations of monetary policy and, at the same time, exert a significant impact on interest rates at longer maturities. Thereby, the maturity response pattern to communication is hump‐shaped, whereas that to policy decisions is downward‐sloping. (JEL: E43, E58)     

The combined dynamically weighted modified maximum likelihood estimators of the location and scale parameters

In this study, two new types of estimators of the location and scale parameters are proposed having high efficiency and robustness; the dynamically weighted modified maximum likelihood (DWMML) and the combined dynamically weighted modified maximum likelihood (CDWMML) estimators. Three pairs of the DWMML and two pairs of the CDWMML estimators of the location and scale parameters are produced, namely, the DWMML1, the DWMML2 and the DWMML3, and the CDWMML1 and the CDWMML2 estimators, respectively. Based on the simulation results, the DWMML1 estimators of the location and scale parameters are almost fully efficient (under normality) and robust at the same time. The DWMML3 estimators are asymptotically fully efficient and more robust than the M-estimators. The DWMML2 estimators are a compromise between efficiency and robustness. The CDWMML1 and CDWMML2 estimators are jointly very efficient and robust. Particularly, the CDWMML1 and CDWMML2 estimators of the scale parameter are superior compared to the other estimators of the scale parameter.     

Positive and negative intergroup contact in school and out-of-school contexts: A longitudinal approach to spillover effects

This study aims to tackle positive and negative intergroup contact in school and out-of-school contexts to test whether a spillover effect (i.e., the extent to which experiences that individuals have in one context spill over into another) applies to intergroup contact. Participants were 984 adolescents (M_age = 14.66; 62.7% female; 24.8% ethnic minority). Results indicated that positive contact in school was related over time to higher positive contact in out-of-school contexts and vice versa (i.e., valence consistent spillover effect). Positive contact in school was linked over time to lower negative contact in out-of-school contexts (i.e., valence inconsistent spillover effect). Overall, this study provides novel insights into the transmission of adolescents' intergroup contact across socialization contexts by emphasizing the leading role of positive contact in schools.