Socio-political forecasting and management information systems

This paper is an attempt to place the forecasting of socio-political variables in the context of actual information needs of industrial companies. Initially discussion is of the effect of socio-political variables upon companies with a review of this significance for decision makers and decision takers. An attempt is then made to categorise existing forecasting techniques in the context of socio-political data whilst regard is paid to the possible effects of socio-political variables on companies. Discussion is then broadened to a consideration of current practice both in the UK and in the USA. Problems implicit in current practice are commented upon and the paper ends with the conclusion that socio-political forecasting is currently significant to many companies and that there is a major potential role for management scientists to play in the development and implementation of appropriate techniques.     

Fossil fuel supplies simulation 1972–1979

Fossil fuels are an important source of energy for Ontario Hydro and purchases exceed $100 million per year. This paper describes a computer simulation of the inventory situation over an eight-year period, which is being used to assess the relationship between order flexibility and the target carry-over stocks at the beginning of each shipping season. A simple way of presenting the results for management evaluation is illustrated. Variations of the model are used to assess random influences, such as strikes, and to determine the economic balance between holding costs and stock-outs.     

Evaluation of single and mixed verbal operant arrangements for teaching mands and tacts

The purpose of this series of experiments was to evaluate the effects of mixed mand-tact arrangements on the acquisition of mands and tacts in preschool-aged children. In Experiment 1, the effects of three training arrangements (mand-only training, tact-only training, and mand-tact training) were investigated with 3 typically developing children. Rates of acquisition in single (mand-only and tact-only) versus mixed (mand-tact) presentation were comparable, in contrast to earlier investigations. Experiment 2 attempted to clarify the equivocal findings of Experiment 1 by directly replicating the Carroll and Hesse (1987) investigation with 2 typically developing children. Results again demonstrated no clear benefit of mixed verbal operant training on tact acquisition. In Experiment 3, these same arrangements were evaluated with a boy with autism and included assessments to determine that a relevant establishing operation was in effect prior to each mand training session. Experiment 3 again failed to demonstrate the facilitative effects of mand-tact training on the acquisition of mands or tacts. Taken together, the data from these three experiments fail to support the improved efficiency of mand-tact training suggested by prior studies. Findings are discussed in the context of future research investigating mixed verbal operant arrangements.     

The application of microcomputers in production management

The findings reported result from a questionnaire survey, and a number of company interviews. Further questions which need to be answered are identified, and a research project to provide these answers is outlined.     

A model of completed length of service

The measurement of labour turnover is important both because high turnover is regarded as a sign that something is wrong in a firm and also because quantitative information is important in planning recruitment programmes. This paper describes a statistical technique which has proved useful for the measurement and prediction of turnover.     

Methods for testing subblock patterns

A number of statistical tests have been recommended over the last twenty years for assessing the randomness of long binary strings used in cryptographic algorithms. Several of these tests include methods of examining subblock patterns. These tests are the uniformity test, the universal test and the repetition test. The effectiveness of these tests are compared based on the subblock length, the limitations on data requirements, and on their power in detecting deviations from randomness. Due to the complexity of the test statistics, the power functions are estimated by simulation methods. The results show that for small subblocks the uniformity test is more powerful than the universal test, and that there is some doubt about the parameters of the hypothesised distribution for the universal test statistic. For larger subblocks the results show that the repetition test is the most effective test, since it requires far less data than either of the other two tests and is an efficient test in detecting deviations from randomness in binary strings.     

The influence of mapped hazards on risk beliefs: a proximity-based modeling approach

Interview findings suggest perceived proximity to mapped hazards influences risk beliefs when people view environmental hazard maps. For dot maps, four attributes of mapped hazards influenced beliefs: hazard value, proximity, prevalence, and dot patterns. In order to quantify the collective influence of these attributes for viewers’ perceived or actual map locations, we present a model to estimate proximity‐based hazard or risk (PBH) and share study results that indicate how modeled PBH and map attributes influenced risk beliefs. The randomized survey study among 447 university students assessed risk beliefs for 24 dot maps that systematically varied by the four attributes. Maps depicted water test results for a fictitious hazardous substance in private residential wells and included a designated “you live here” location. Of the nine variables that assessed risk beliefs, the numerical susceptibility variable was most consistently and strongly related to map attributes and PBH. Hazard value, location in or out of a clustered dot pattern, and distance had the largest effects on susceptibility. Sometimes, hazard value interacted with other attributes, for example, distance had stronger effects on susceptibility for larger than smaller hazard values. For all combined maps, PBH explained about the same amount of variance in susceptibility as did attributes. Modeled PBH may have utility for studying the influence of proximity to mapped hazards on risk beliefs, protective behavior, and other dependent variables. Further work is needed to examine these influences for more realistic maps and representative study samples.     

A model for national planning policies

This paper attempts to develop a multiobjective model to help policy-makers choose the most appropriate mix of economic policies concurrent with the elimination of serious gaps. Each individual policy attempts to achieve a specific goal or a set of subgoals; but it may hinder the achievement of some other subgoals. To differentiate between the importance of different objectives, the analyst assigns different priorities to each of the given set of subgoals. Three sets of results are provided by three separate computer runs of this model. Each set of results corresponds to one of the three priority structures, and each run indicates quite differing underachievements or over-achievements of individual subgoals. A detailed explanation for each of these deviations (gaps) from the targeted subgoals is attempted in an overall framework and some interactions between various gaps (savings gaps, foreign exchange gap, domestic growth gap, GNP gap, etc.) are also identified.     

A comparison of applications of microcomputers in production

Earlier research has established that the full potential of microcomputers is not being achieved by production management in small companies. Moreover, questionnaire results and in-company interviews were used to support suggested reasons for this situation. This paper reports further work carried out to examine the issues raised in far more detail. Collaboration took place with nine separate companies over a range of applications. Three of these case studies are presented in detail, and general conclusions drawn relating both to these specific studies and to the total collaboration.