WHAT DO BRITISH HISTORICAL DATA TELL US ABOUT GOVERNMENT SPENDING MULTIPLIERS?

British data from the early 1700s through World War I reflect the results of numerous high‐quality natural experiments of government spending. Britain frequently participated in wars, increasing military spending massively. Wartime distortions were relatively limited because the government generally adopted tax smoothing policy and rarely implemented interventions. Government spending multiplier estimates are low or negative and significantly below unity. This paper finds no evidence that the multiplier was higher in the slack state than in the normal state. (JEL E32, E62)     

Influence in covariance structure analysis: with an application to confirmatory factor analysis

Influence functions are derived for the parameters in covariance structure analysis, where the parameters are estimated by minimizing a discrepancy function between the assumed covariance matrix and the sample covariance matrix. The case of confirmatory factor analysis is studied precisely with a numerical example. Comparing with a general procedure called one-step estimation, the proposed procedure has two advantages:1) computing cost is cheaper, 2) the property that arbitrary influence can be decomposed into a fi-nite number of components discussed by Tanaka and Castano-Tostado(1990) can be used for efficient computing and the characterization of a covariance structure model from the sensitivity perspective. A numerical comparison is made among the confirmatory factor analysis and some procedures of ex-ploratory factor analysis by using the decomposition mentioned above.     

A Simple Test Procedure When Data are Given by n Indepenent Blocks

In this article we consider a test procedure which is useful in the situations where data are given by n independent blocks and the experimental conditions differ between blocks. The basic idea is very simple. The significance of the sample for each block is calculated and then standardized by its null mean and variance. The sum of standardized significances is proposed as a test statistic. The normal approximation for large n and the exact method for small n are applied in the continuous case. For the discrete case, some devices are also proposed. Several examples are given in order to explain how to apply the procedure.     

Likelihood-based cross-validation score for selecting the smoothing parameter in maximum penalized likelihood estimation

Maximum penalized likelihood estimation is applied in non(semi)-para-metric regression problems, and enables us exploratory identification and diagnostics of nonlinear regression relationships. The smoothing parameter A controls trade-off between the smoothness and the goodness-of-fit of a function. The method of cross-validation is used for selecting A, but the generalized cross-validation, which is based on the squared error criterion, shows bad be¬havior in non-normal distribution and can not often select reasonable A. The purpose of this study is to propose a method which gives more suitable A and to evaluate the performance of it.

A method of simple calculation for the delete-one estimates in the likeli¬hood-based cross-validation (LCV) score is described. A score of similar form to the Akaike information criterion (AIC) is also derived. The proposed scores are compared with the ones of standard procedures by using data sets in liter¬atures. Simulations are performed to compare the patterns of selecting A and overall goodness-of-fit and to evaluate the effects of some factors. The LCV-scores by the simple calculation provide good approximation to the exact one if λ is not extremeiy smaii Furthermore the LCV scores by the simple size it possible to select X adaptively They have the effect, of reducing the bias of estimates and provide better performance in the sense of overall goodness-of fit. These scores are useful especially in the case of small sample size and in the case of binary logistic regression.     

Gender gaps in STEM in Japanese academia: The impact of research productivity,outside offers,and home life on pay

To understand differences in labor market outcomes between genders, economists must examine a complex array of potentially significant factors, such as institutional context, productivity differences, child-bearing and home production, and bargaining behavior. Many of these factors are not well captured by standard data sources. We use a new survey of academics in Japan to better understand the sources of gender pay differences. We find a 6% pay gap which persists when we control for research productivity, despite an institutional context shaped by explicit salary tables. We do not find a motherhood wage penalty, and the gender salary we document is not affected by differences in outside job offers.     

Return Migration and Decontamination After the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Disaster

Return migration is key to community recovery from many disasters. Japanese governments have conducted radiation decontamination efforts in the Exclusion Zone designated after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster in order to encourage this outcome. Little is known, however, about the factors that influence post-disaster migrants to return, and, if people are relatively unresponsive to decontamination, then the costs of promoting recovery may exceed the benefits. We exploit a unique survey of Fukushima evacuees to determine the factors that influence their decision to return after a disaster. Location-specific capital characteristics, such as housing tenure and the extent of property damage, are estimated to be strong factors. The radiation dose rate of the home location is found to be a statistically significant factor for intent to return, but its effect is small. We also found that households with various other characteristics were noncommittal about the return option and likely to defer their decisions, which implies that “return” and “not-return” are asymmetric. Our simulation analysis found that the number of returnees encouraged by this decontamination was 12,882, less than 8% of the total evacuees, while the decontamination cost per returnee was 3.36 million USD. This result implies that the government could have improved the well-being of evacuees at a lower cost by policies other than decontamination.     

Long-term care insurance in Japan

Among all the industrialized countries, Japan has the fastest rate of population aging and the highest life expectancy at birth. It is projected that the proportion of elderly people will reach 35.7% in 2050. In this demographic environment, Japan launched a social insurance program for long-term care for the elderly in 2000. What were the forces that led Japan to establish a long-term care program for elderly people? What are the provisions for financing, benefits, and service delivery? What aspects of policymaking in developing such a program are unique to Japan?.     

Clinical trial of treatment with saikokaryukotsuboreito for eugonadal patients with late-inset hypogonadism-related symptoms

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficacy and safety of saikokaryukotsuboreito (SKRBT), which is widely used for a variety of clinical conditions, neuropsychiatric disorders, for patients with LOH-related symptoms. Twenty-two eugonadal patients over 40 years of age with LOH-related symptoms were included in this study. SKRBT was given orally to these patients three times daily to a total of 7.5 g/day for more than two months. Laboratory and endocrinological profiles were reviewed, and LOH symptoms were judged by means of several health assessment instruments such as the Aging Males' Symptoms (AMS) scale, Self-rated Depression Scale (SDS), International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS), and King's Health Questionnaire (KHQ). Total AMS scores and AMS subscores were significantly decreased after the treatment. The KHQ, general health perception and impact on life scores were also significantly decreased, although no significant improvement was observed in other KHQ factors or the SDS score or IPSS. The serum concentrations of testosterone fractions did not change with treatment. Laboratory values did not change, and no adverse effects were identified after treatment. We conclude that SKRBT may be considered for treatment of patients with LOH-related symptoms for eugonadal patients.     

Salvage therapy trial for erectile dysfunction using phosphodiesterase type 5 inhibitors and vitamin E: Preliminary report

We report our initial experience with salvage therapy for low responders to PDE-5 inhibitors by adding vitamin E. Of 89 patients with ED who visited our clinic between January 2004 to August 2006, 9 were unable to obtain a full response to a PDE-5 inhibitor and included in the present study. After providing informed consent, each was given 300 mg per day of α-tocophenol at least 1 month and completed IIEF-5 questionnaires to assess its efficacy while also taking a PDE-5 inhibitor. With α-tocophenol administration, the average IIEF-5 score increased from 13.8 ± 3.2 to 17.1 ± 3.6. Four of seven patients who completed the questionnaire each time showed improved IIEF-5 scores, with a maximum elevation of 9 points. Further, eight of the nine patients experienced favourable subjective changes, the majority being increased penile rigidity. The present clinical trial results are, to our knowledge, the first known to show the effects of vitamin E for enhancing the efficacy of a PDE-5 inhibitor.     

Ordinary Usage of New Media: Internet Usage via Mobile Phone in Japan

Abstract:  This paper, by analyzing Internet usage via mobile phones in Japan, aims to clarify an aspect of information behavior in present-day Japanese society.
Many discourses on the mobile Internet in Japan, either positive or negative, emphasize its novelty and describe this new media as an exotic phenomenon. These discourses can be divided into two categories. The nationalistic discourses and the moral panic discourses. Both types of discourse have built certain images of social influences of the mobile Internet in the future. However, it would be unwise to conclude that those images of the mobile Internet express the reality of this new medium, simply because they lack empirical ground.
With these points in mind, based on the result of our national survey conducted in 2001, we would like to show the actual status of use of the mobile Internet and discuss that the ordinary usage is a critically important realm to understand the process of social reception of the mobile Internet. As our data shows, although the actual usage of the mobile Internet is not very conspicuous, it gives us a chance to understand how the mobile Internet has been integrated into our everyday lives.