Seasonal forcing on the dynamics ofClethrionomys rufocanus: Modeling geographic gradients in population dynamics

We interpret gradients in population dynamics of the gray-sided vole from the southwestern part of the island of Hokkaido to its northeastern part within the framework of a phenomenological model involving the relative length of summer and winter. In Hokkaido, as in other northern regions, both spring and fall is considered as short transition periods between the two main seasons — summer (the primary breeding season) and winter (the non-reproductive or secondary breeding season). We show that the geographic transition in dynamics may be understood as the combined consequence of different patterns of density-dependence during summer and winter, and geographically varying season lengths. Differences are shown to exist between summer and winter with respect to strength of density-dependence. Direct density-dependence, in particular, is stronger during winter than during summer. A model is presented to show how relative lengths of seasons can induce both stable and periodically fluctuating population dynamics. The results are compared and contrasted with what is otherwise known about the gradient in rodent dynamics in Fennoscandia.     

Decision-making under uncertainty: using MLMC for efficient estimation of EVPPI

Statistics and Computing - In this paper, we develop a very efficient approach to the Monte Carlo estimation of the expected value of partial perfect information (EVPPI) that measures the average...     

$${\mathcal{Q}}$$-anonymous social welfare relations on infinite utility streams

This paper studies a class of social welfare relations (SWRs) on the set of infinite utility streams. In particular, we examine the SWRs satisfying -Anonymity, an impartiality axiom stronger than Finite Anonymity, as well as Strong Pareto and a certain equity axiom. First, we characterize the extension of the generalized Lorenz SWR by combining -Anonymity with Strong Pareto and Pigou–Dalton Equity. Second, we replace Pigou–Dalton Equity with Hammond Equity for characterizing the extended leximin SWR. Third, we give an alternative characterization of the extended utilitarian SWR by substituting Incremental Equity for Pigou–Dalton Equity.     

Money-metric utilitarianism

We discuss a method of ranking allocations in economic environments which applies when we do not know the names or preferences of individual agents. We require that two allocations can be ranked with the knowledge only of agents present, their aggregate bundles, and community indifference sets—a condition we refer to as aggregate independence. We also postulate a basic Pareto and continuity property, and a property stating that when two disjoint economies and allocations are put together, the ranking in the large economy should be consistent with the rankings in the two smaller economies (reinforcement). We show that a ranking method satisfies these axioms if and only if there is a probability measure over the strictly positive prices for which the rule ranks allocations on the basis of the random-price money-metric utilitarian rule. This is a rule which computes the money-metric utility for each agent at each price, sums these, and then takes an expectation according to the probability measure.     

Alzheimer's disease,neuropeptides, neuropeptidase,and amyloid-beta peptide metabolism

Amyloid-beta peptide (Abeta), the pathogenic agent of Alzheimer's disease (AD), is a physiological metabolite in the brain. We have focused our attention and effort on elucidating the unresolved aspect of Abeta metabolism: proteolytic degradation. Among a number of Abeta-degrading enzyme candidates, we used a novel in vivo paradigm to identify a member of the neutral endopeptidase family, neprilysin, as the major Abeta catabolic enzyme. Neprilysin deficiency results in defects in the metabolism of endogenous Abeta 40 and 42 in a gene dose-dependent manner. Our observations suggest that even partial down-regulation of neprilysin activity, which could be caused by aging, can contribute to AD development by promoting Abeta accumulation. Moreover, we discuss the fact that an aging-dependent decline of neprilysin activity, which leads to elevation of Abeta concentrations in the brain, is a natural process that precedes AD pathology. In this Perspective, we hypothesize that neprilysin down-regulation has a role in sporadic AD (SAD) pathogenesis, and we propose that this knowledge be used for developing preventive and therapeutic strategies through use of a G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR).     

Relative Curvature Measure for Heteroscedastic or Non Normal Nonlinear Regression

The Bates–Watts relative curvature measure can assess the validity of the linearized approximation in nonlinear regression models. However, it is developed based on an ordinary nonlinear regression in which the observation is assumed to be homoscedastically and normally distributed. In this article, we extend the original Bates–Watts relative curvature measure to one that can be applicable to nonlinear regression with heteroscedastic or non normal data, based on the transformation-both-sides (TBS) approach. In pharmacokinetic models, a diagnostic use of their measures is illustrated. By means of a simulation experiment, the performance of the relative curvature measure for the TBS approach is evaluated.     

Estimation of the covariance matrix with two-step monotone missing data

Abstract

We suggest shrinkage based technique for estimating covariance matrix in the high-dimensional normal model with missing data. Our approach is based on the monotone missing scheme assumption, meaning that missing values patterns occur completely at random. Our asymptotic framework allows the dimensionality p grow to infinity together with the sample size, N, and extends the methodology of Ledoit and Wolf (2004) Ledoit, O., Wolf, M. (2004). A well-conditioned estimator for large dimensional covariance matrices. J. Multivariate Anal. 88:365–411.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar] to the case of two-step monotone missing data. Two new shrinkage-type estimators are derived and their dominance properties over the Ledoit and Wolf (2004) Ledoit, O., Wolf, M. (2004). A well-conditioned estimator for large dimensional covariance matrices. J. Multivariate Anal. 88:365–411.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar] estimator are shown under the expected quadratic loss. We perform a simulation study and conclude that the proposed estimators are successful for a range of missing data scenarios.     

Bayesian sample‐size determination methods considering both worthwhileness and unpromisingness for exploratory two‐arm randomized clinical trials with binary endpoints

A randomized exploratory clinical trial comparing an experimental treatment with a control treatment on a binary endpoint is often conducted to make a go or no‐go decision. Such an exploratory trial needs to have an adequate sample size such that it will provide convincing evidence that the experimental treatment is either worthwhile or unpromising relative to the control treatment. In this paper, we propose three new sample‐size determination methods for an exploratory trial, which utilize the posterior probabilities calculated from predefined efficacy and inefficacy criteria leading to a declaration of the worthwhileness or unpromisingness of the experimental treatment. Simulation studies, including numerical investigation, showed that all three methods could declare the experimental treatment as worthwhile or unpromising with a high probability when the true response probability of the experimental treatment group is higher or lower, respectively, than that of the control treatment group.