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1.
Ninna Nyberg–Sørensen Nicholas Van Hear & Poul Engberg–Pedersen 《International migration (Geneva, Switzerland)》2002,40(5):3-47
In September 2001, the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs commissioned a study of the present and potential links between migration and development. In January 2002, the new Danish Government announced a decision to enhance the links between its aid and refugee policies as part of the overall focus on poverty reduction. The present paper provides a state–of–the–art overview of current thinking and available evidence on the migration–development nexus, including the role of aid in migrant–producing areas. It offers evidence and conclusions around the following four critical issues: Poverty and migration People in developing countries require resources and connections to engage in international migration. There is no direct link between poverty, economic development, population growth, and social and political change on the one hand, and international migration on the other. Poverty reduction is not in itself a migration–reducing strategy. Conflicts, refugees, and migration Violent conflicts produce displaced persons, migrants, and refugees. People on the move may contribute both to conflict prevention and reconciliation, and to sustained conflicts. Most refugees do not have the resources to move beyond neighbouring areas, that is, they remain internally displaced or move across borders to first countries of asylum within their region. Aid to developing countries receiving large inflows of refugees is poverty–oriented to the extent that these are poor countries, but it is uncertain what effect such aid has in terms of reducing the number of people seeking asylum in developed countries. Furthermore, such aid may attract refugees from adjacent countries experiencing war or political turmoil. Migrants as a development resource International liberalization has gone far with respect to capital, goods and services, but not to labour. International political–economic regimes provide neither space nor initiatives for negotiations on labour mobility and the flow of remittances. There is a pressing need to reinforce the image of migrants as a development resource. Remittances are double the size of aid and target the poor at least as well; migrant diasporas are engaged in transnational practices with direct effects on aid and development; developed countries recognize their dependence on immigrant labour; and policies on development aid, humanitarian relief, migration, and refugee protection are internally inconsistent and occasionally contradictory. Aid and migration Aid policies face a critical challenge to balance a focus on poverty reduction with mitigating the conditions that produce refugees, while also interacting constructively with migrant diasporas and their transnational practices. The current emphasis on aid selectivity tends to allocate development aid to the well performing countries, and humanitarian assistance to the crisis countries and trouble spots. However, development aid is more effective than humanitarian assistance in preventing violent conflicts, promoting reconciliation and democratization, and encouraging poverty–reducing development investments by migrant diasporas. The paper is a synthesis of current knowledge of migration–development dynamics, including an assessment of the intended and unintended consequences of development and humanitarian policy interventions. We examine whether recent developments in the sphere of international migration provide evidence of a “crisis”, as well as the connections between migration, globalization, and the changing nature of conflicts. We summarize current thinking on the main issues at stake and examine available evidence on the relations between migration and development. Then the consequent challenges to the aid community, including the current debates about coherence and selectivity in aid and relief are discussed and, finally, we elaborate on the four conclusions of the overview. 相似文献
2.
Ninna Nyberg–Sørensen Nicholas Van Hear & Poul Engberg–Pedersen 《International migration (Geneva, Switzerland)》2002,40(5):49-73
Migration and development are linked in many ways – through the livelihood and survival strategies of individuals, households, and communities; through large and often well–targeted remittances; through investments and advocacy by migrants, refugees, diasporas and their transnational communities; and through international mobility associated with global integration, inequality, and insecurity. Until now, migration and development have constituted separate policy fields. Differing policy approaches that hinder national coordination and international cooperation mark these fields. For migration authorities, the control of migration flows to the European Union and other OECD countries are a high priority issue, as is the integration of migrants into the labour market and wider society. On the other hand, development agencies may fear that the development policy objectives are jeopardized if migration is taken into consideration. Can long–term goals of global poverty reduction be achieved if short–term migration policy interests are to be met? Can partnership with developing countries be real if preventing further migration is the principal European migration policy goal? While there may be good reasons to keep some policies separate, conflicting policies are costly and counter–productive. More importantly, there is unused potential in mutually supportive policies, that is, the constructive use of activities and interventions that are common to both fields and which may have positive effects on poverty reduction, development, prevention of violent conflicts, and international mobility. This paper focuses on positive dimensions and possibilities in the migration–development nexus. It highlights the links between migration, development, and conflict from the premise that to align policies on migration and development, migrant and refugee diasporas must be acknowledged as a development resource. 相似文献
3.
受访者推动抽样:研究隐藏人口的方法与实践 总被引:4,自引:1,他引:4
“隐藏人口”的特点是规模较小且成员一般不愿暴露身份,因此很难使用常规抽样方法对其进行研究。近年来出现了一种新的研究隐藏人口的方法——受访者推动抽样(RDS)方法,该方法在传统“雪球抽样”方法的基础上,结合社会网络分析的理论和方法,使研究者有可能根据样本对总体特征做出合理的推论。本文对RDS方法的理论渊源、基本思路、主要操作步骤和原理进行了简要介绍,并探讨了在实际操作过程中应注意的问题。 相似文献
4.
Missing covariate values is a common problem in survival analysis. In this paper we propose a novel method for the Cox regression model that is close to maximum likelihood but avoids the use of the EM-algorithm. It exploits that the observed hazard function is multiplicative in the baseline hazard function with the idea being to profile out this function before carrying out the estimation of the parameter of interest. In this step one uses a Breslow type estimator to estimate the cumulative baseline hazard function. We focus on the situation where the observed covariates are categorical which allows us to calculate estimators without having to assume anything about the distribution of the covariates. We show that the proposed estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal, and derive a consistent estimator of the variance–covariance matrix that does not involve any choice of a perturbation parameter. Moderate sample size performance of the estimators is investigated via simulation and by application to a real data example. 相似文献
5.
A Note on the Large Sample Properties of Estimators Based on Generalized Linear Models for Correlated Pseudo‐observations 下载免费PDF全文
Pseudo‐values have proven very useful in censored data analysis in complex settings such as multi‐state models. It was originally suggested by Andersen et al., Biometrika, 90, 2003, 335 who also suggested to estimate standard errors using classical generalized estimating equation results. These results were studied more formally in Graw et al., Lifetime Data Anal., 15, 2009, 241 that derived some key results based on a second‐order von Mises expansion. However, results concerning large sample properties of estimates based on regression models for pseudo‐values still seem unclear. In this paper, we study these large sample properties in the simple setting of survival probabilities and show that the estimating function can be written as a U‐statistic of second order giving rise to an additional term that does not vanish asymptotically. We further show that previously advocated standard error estimates will typically be too large, although in many practical applications the difference will be of minor importance. We show how to estimate correctly the variability of the estimator. This is further studied in some simulation studies. 相似文献
6.
The authors seek to give an overview of ways in which social indicators relevant to research on children affected by armed
conflict can be developed, and how such research can be carried out. Technical and methodological challenges involved in this
pursuit are discussed. It is argued that data production must consider issues of definition and delineation of the phenomenon
of war-affected children more actively than it does currently. An analytical approach is proposed, in which children’s characteristics
in different situations, or in different stages of conflict, may be used as intakes to understanding how the social processes
pertaining to life histories of children in armed conflict are created and reproduced.
相似文献
Tone SommerfeltEmail: |
7.
Torben M. Andersen 《Economic inquiry》2019,57(3):1441-1459
The role parents' education plays for the educational achievements of children is a source of unequal opportunities. Through this channel the number of educated affects the options of future cohorts, creating a social multiplier effect making improvements in education self‐reinforcing. Policies to compensate for inequalities of opportunities—public education or transfers—have very different implications. Transfers not only reduce inequality on impact but also reduce social mobility, while public education—even if a perfect substitute to private education—works in the opposite direction. Social impediments to education are similar to a market imperfection, and publicly provided education may lead to a Pareto improvement. (JEL D3, I2, H2, H4) 相似文献
8.
Torben M. Andersen 《Economic inquiry》2016,54(2):810-818
The root of the Baumol cost disease is higher productivity increases for manufactured goods than for services. The implied increase in relative costs of service production is widely claimed to have devastating implications for the public sector as a provider of tax‐financed services such as health, education, and care. To match the increasing costs it appears inevitable that tax rates would be ever increasing. It is shown that this inference does not follow under standard assumptions when accounting explicitly for service provision from both the private and public sectors. Strikingly under assumptions often made in the literature, the welfare maximizing tax rate for a utilitarian policy maker would remain constant despite the Baumol cost disease, and by implication the share of public employment in total employment will remain constant. (JEL H5, H11, O41) 相似文献
9.
ABSTRACT We present a dynamic forecast model for the labour market: demand for labour by education and the distribution of labour by education among industries are determined endogenously with overall demand by industry given exogenously. The model is derived from a simple behavioural equation based on a strong relationship between the “strength” in the struggle for jobs of an educational group, and the change in relative supply. This relationship proves to be significant in the data. Furthermore, when used to forecast employment by education on real data, the model predicts reasonably well even for educational groups, where the initial forecast year is a change point for unemployment. 相似文献
10.
This paper considers estimation and prediction in the Aalen additive hazards model in the case where the covariate vector
is high-dimensional such as gene expression measurements. Some form of dimension reduction of the covariate space is needed
to obtain useful statistical analyses. We study the partial least squares regression method. It turns out that it is naturally
adapted to this setting via the so-called Krylov sequence. The resulting PLS estimator is shown to be consistent provided
that the number of terms included is taken to be equal to the number of relevant components in the regression model. A standard
PLS algorithm can also be constructed, but it turns out that the resulting predictor can only be related to the original covariates
via time-dependent coefficients. The methods are applied to a breast cancer data set with gene expression recordings and to
the well known primary biliary cirrhosis clinical data. 相似文献