从王宝强到莱昂纳多,二手车电商怎么选代言人?

正过去的二手车电商广告一直以重复、魔性、鬼畜闻名于世,譬如孙红雷身着绿色西装,念叨"没有中间商赚差价"。在百度搜索莱昂纳多·迪卡普里奥也就是我们熟悉的"小李子"被置顶的第一条,是他最近的新"大片"——优信二手车广告。与《荒野猎人》的冷峻复仇者不同,小李子这次呈现的是一位和蔼可亲的大叔形象——广告背景是愉悦放松的橙色,小李子看着镜头,平和微笑,温暖而真诚。然而,大部分用户并不买单:很难将"lowlow的"二手车电商和这位好莱坞     

Decomposing change in life expectancy: A bouquet of formulas in honor of Nathan Keyfitz’s 90th birthday

We extend Nathan Keyfitz's research on continuous change in life expectancy over time by presenting and proving a new formula for decomposing such change. The formula separates change in life expectancy over time into two terms. The first term captures the general effect of reduction in death rates at all ages, and the second term captures the effect of heterogeneity in the pace of improvement in mortality at different ages. We extend the formula to decompose change in life expectancy into age-specific and cause-specific components, and apply the methods to analyze changes in life expectancy in Sweden and Japan.     

A clinical consultation model for child welfare supervisors

This article presents findings from a consultation project conducted by faculty from six schools of social work with approximately 150 child welfare supervisors over a two-year period. The purpose of the program was to assist supervisors with their roles as educators, mentors, and coaches for casework staff, specifically in relationship to case practice decisions. The consultation model, the development of the curriculum, the project implementation, and the results of the initial assessment are described.     

一张生命的车票

他们刚刚结婚后的第4天,也就是30年前的7月28日,是本来已经计划好,利用婚假的剩余几天去北戴河、秦皇岛好好玩一玩,两张火车票已经买好,就放在床头柜上。女孩对男孩说：“我想去北戴河,可以吗?”男孩轻轻地抚摩了女孩的头,笑吟吟地说：“为什么不可以呢,今后     

Advances in the P/F ratio method for the analysis of birth histories

Abstract One of the most frequently used indirect techniques for deriving estimates of recent fertility from simple questions in censuses and surveys is the 'P/F ratio' method. Availability of detailed birth-history data, as in the World Fertility Survey, and applications of the P/F procedure as a diagnostic tool in the evaluation of the quality of data have led to simplifications and extensions of the original method. This analysis illustrates that when complete maternity histories are available, the P/F procedure can be simplified and made more powerful by (1) calculation of P/F values from cohort-period fertility rates and (2) use of two further indexing variables, namely duration since first marriage and duration since first birth, in addition to age. More generally, the paper indicates that a set of P/F values is only one of a battery of measures which aid in the analysis of trends and errors in data from maternity histories. Illustrative examples are given from various analyses of world Fertility Survey data. Howard Goldberg has been independently pursuing an investigation of the P/F procedure by marriage duration at the Office of Population Research (Princeton University), and we have profited from recent discussions with him. We would also like to acknowledge useful comments and criticisms on earlier drafts from James Trussell and Kenneth Hill.     

我花了18年才能和你坐在一起喝咖啡

这个题目看起来也许有些荒诞，可这却是实事。我的上海白领朋友们，如果我是一个初中没毕业就来沪打工的民工，你会和我坐在Starbucks一起喝咖啡吗？不会，肯定不会。     

Estimating fertility trends from retrospective birth histories: Sensitivity to imputation of missing dates

Abstract In the birth history section of the Core Questionnaire adopted by the countries participating in the World Fertility Survey a question on the date of birth of each child born to the respondent is asked. When the woman cannot provide a date, as is often the case in many developing countries, she is asked how many 'years ago' the birth occurred. If the default is used, the month and year of the birth is imputed by a computer program: However, there can be two plausible interpretations of the 'years ago' response: as completed years, the demographer's usual definition of age, or as rounded years. In this paper, data from the WFS Survey in Bangladesh are used to determine the sensitivity of recent fertility estimates to the interpretation of 'years ago'. It is found that if the woman meant rounded years, but completed years were assumed for imputation, the resulting evidence of a recent decline could be either exaggerated or false. The results have implications for other surveys in which the 'years ago' response is not an explicit option.     

Integration of human factors principles in LARG organizations--a conceptual model

Nowadays many companies are undergoing organizational transformations in order to meet the changing market demands. Thus, in order to become more competitive, supply chains (SC) are adopting new management paradigms to improve SC performance: lean, agile, resilient and green (LARG paradigms). The implementation of new production paradigms demands particular care with the issues related with Human Factors to avoid health and safety problems to workers and losses to companies. Thus, the successful introduction of these new production paradigms depends among others on a Human Factors oriented approach. This work presents a conceptual framework that allows integrating ergonomic and safety design principles during the different implementation phases of lean, agile, resilient and green practices.