What happened, what next?

Many physicians and other health care professionals breathed a collective sigh of relief when the 103rd Congress adjourned without passing the Clinton Health Security Act or any other health care reform legilsation. The ambition of this brief paper is to describe why health care reform did not pass in 1994, the issues that need to be resolved if we are to pass legislation, the political forces that will need to be addressed before legislation is passed, and the type of struggles we can expect to see in the coming session of Congress.     

A General Statistical Framework for Multistage Designs

Abstract. The efficiency of observational studies may be increased by applying multistage sampling designs. It is, however, not always transparent how to construct such a design to obtain increased efficiency. We here present a general statistical framework for describing and constructing multistage designs. We also provide tools for efficiency and cost‐efficiency comparisons, to facilitate the choice of sampling scheme. The comparisons are based on Fisher information matrices and the results are presented in graphs, where either efficiency or cost‐adjusted efficiency is plotted against a normalized measure of cost. The former curve resides in the unit square and is analogous to the receiver operating characteristic curve used for testing.     

The planning of a department store

A town or village attracts people from its hinterland to purchase goods by virtue of the amount and variety of goods on offer. Similarly, a department store attracts customers away from cempetitors by means of displays, staff expertise, stock holdings and numerous other parameters. The store is generally free to manipulate these parameters subject to certain restrictions; the manipulation will have a direct affect on the ultimate profitability of the store. This paper describes some current research that is being carried out in conjunction with a department store group. The ultimate aim is to link the corporate planning of the group and each store to detailed socioeconomic data describing the population. Some aspects of the problem have been investigated in depth, some are currently being discussed and some have not been considered at all as yet. The latest position will be reported and hopefully some feedback will be engendered.     

WITHIN U.S. TRADE AND THE LONG SHADOW OF THE AMERICAN SECESSION

Using data from U.S. commodity flow survey, we show that the historical Union–Confederacy border lowers contemporaneous trade between U.S. states by about 13%. The finding is robust over econometric models, survey waves, or aggregation levels. Including contemporaneous controls, such as network or institutional variables, lowers the estimate only slightly. Historical variables, such as slavery, do not explain the effect. Adding U.S. states unaffected by the Civil War, we argue that the friction is not merely reflecting unmeasured North–South differences. Finally, the border effect is larger for differentiated than for homogeneous goods, stressing the potential role for cultural factors and trust. (JEL F15, N72, N92, Z10)