An application of a minimax Bayes rule and shrinkage estimators to the portofolio selection problem under the Bayesian approach

This paper shows that a minimax Bayes rule and shrinkage estimators can be effectively applied to portfolio selection under the Bayesian approach. Specifically, it is shown that the portfolio selection problem can result in a statistical decision problem in some situations. Following that, we present a method for solving a problem involved in portfolio selection under the Bayesian approach.     

Imagined past,present and futures in Murray–Darling Basin communities

Over the past three decades, irrigation-dependent rural communities in Australia's Murray–Darling Basin have experienced profound economic, social and environmental changes, which they are attempting to accommodate through local government policy. As a contribution to participatory policy design research, in consultation with local governments we carried out focus groups to explore diversity of individuals’ imagined past and present in two rural communities. This was followed by group development of a diverse range of future scenarios and agreement to three likely scenarios. The research identified presence or absence of three underlying themes – irrigation, innovation and inflow of people – that plausibly drive change in these rural communities. These themes are likely to be common to many rural communities that have depended on irrigated agriculture. They provide an example of participatory policy-making, as distinct from the historically employed top-down policy development that has occurred in the Murray–Darling Basin. Because of the diversity of perceptions of past, present and futures, and the ultimate adoption of business-as-usual within the final local government plans, the research emphasises the need to put effort into community deliberations to build cohesion and share ownership of the process for delivering locally nuanced community policy.     

论志贺直哉《赤西蛎太》的文学地位

志贺直哉强调艺术性,其作品被视为缺少时代性和现实性,但作为同时代里诞生的"古典",却保持着卓越的文学地位.志贺的作品脱离"通俗趣味",其"诗化精神"赢得芥川龙之介的尊崇.本文依据志贺的著名随笔<创作余谈>,选出志贺的一篇精品<赤西蛎太>,对其艺术性内质加以深层探究,并论述<赤西蛎太>问世后,随着文学潮流的变化,被改编成电影和歌舞伎后展示的新貌.     

A generalized binomial distribution determined by a two-state Markov chain and a distribution by the Bayesian approach

For dependent Bernoulli random variables, the distribution of a sum of the random variables is obtained as a generalized binomial distribution determined by a two-state Markov chain. Asymptotic distributions of the sum are derived from the central limit theorem and the Edgeworth expansion. A numerical comparison of the exact and asymptotic distributions of the sum is also given. Further a distribution of the sum by the Bayesian approach is derived and its asymptotic distributions are provided. Numerical results are given.     

全球化的"哲学"意义

全球化已经深入到世界的政治、经济、文化等各个领域,在此大环境下哲学也面临新的课题。基于此,本刊刊发“哲学与全球化”为栏目的5篇文章,这是2006年11月26日~27日由中国社会科学院哲学研究所和日本哲学会主办、浙江树人大学东亚研究所承办的题为“21世纪的哲学课题———从东西问题与视点出发”的中日哲学论坛上的交流论文。这组文章分别从“全球化的‘哲学’意义”、“全球化时代的空间论课题”、“全球化与共生思想”、“全球化与哲学的可能性”、“实践、文化与全球化———从《关于费尔巴哈的提纲》到《共产党宣言》”等不同角度,探讨全球化与哲学的关系。开首篇为鹿島教授关于全球化对哲学的影响以及哲学的自我反省两个方面的论述,认为既要使哲学成为大众的哲学,也要从“哲学”的原本意义出发拓宽其内涵。这组文章观点鲜明,思路清晰,侧重点不同,对哲学教学与理论研究有较好的参考价值。     

SOURCES OF INFORMATION ABOUT HIV/AIDS,TRUST OF SOURCES AND PERCEIVED RISK OF INFECTION

The relationship between sources of information about AIDS/HIV, trust of the sources, how informed about AIDS people thought they were, and perceived risk to self and others were examined using three samples. One included young heterosexual students (113 females and 91 males), while the others included slightly older heterosexuals (74 females and 73 males) and homosexuals (82 males) from the general community. Homosexual men were the only group who trusted the same sources from which they received the most information (eg gay publications and AIDS organisations). Heterosexuals trusted expert sources the most, but the students received most information from magazines aimed at their peer groups and the heterosexuals in the community sample received most information from the print media. For the students, perceived personal risk was influenced most by perceived risk to male friends and people with the same sexual practices, whereas for the community samples it was influenced most by perceived risk to people with the same practices. The results suggest a strong peer influence on perceptions of personal risk of HIV infection.     

Challenges to Successful Community-based Integrated Approach to Dementia: A Qualitative Study

The aim of this study is to identify key challenges to successful community-based integrated team approach to the management of older adults with dementia. A nationwide community-based qualitative research strategy was applied. We purposively recruited 24 health-care providers and 13 family caregivers from selected 8 prefectures among 47 prefectures. Face to face interviews were conducted from May to September 2017. Qualitative content analysis was used to analyze the qualitative data. Ten themes regarding the challenges were emerged: Ignored wishes, Family caregivers’ full responsibilities, Encouragement, Practical and easy-to-understand information, Essential skills of dementia diagnosis and assessment, Gratitude by helping others, Difference between being kind and overly-kind, Legal barrier against information sharing, Coordination between volunteers and clients, and Conflict avoidance in multidisciplinary collaboration. The findings highlight the need to provide practical and easy-to-understand information for family caregivers, educate physicians in dementia diagnosis and assessment, share personal dementia care information among health-care providers, promote platforms which aim to match dementia care volunteers with older adults with dementia and their families in need of help, and raise awareness of advance care planning among both older individuals and health-care providers.     

Risk Perception and Risk Talk: The Case of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Radiation Risk

Individuals’ perceptions and their interpersonal communication about a risk event, or risk talk, can play a significant role in the formation of societal responses to the risk event. As they formulate their risk opinions and speak to others, risk information can circulate through their social networks and contribute to the construction of their risk information environment. In the present study, Japanese citizens’ risk perception and risk talk were examined in the context of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear radiation risk. We hypothesized and found that the risk information environment and risk literacy (i.e., competencies to understand and use risk information) interact to influence their risk perception and risk talk. In particular, risk literacy tends to stabilize people's risk perceptions and their risk communications. Nevertheless, there were some subtle differences between risk perception and communication, suggesting the importance of further examination of interpersonal risk communication and its role in the societal responses to risk events.