Using relative utility curves to evaluate risk prediction

Summary.  Because many medical decisions are based on risk prediction models that are constructed from medical history and results of tests, the evaluation of these prediction models is important. This paper makes five contributions to this evaluation: the relative utility curve which gauges the potential for better prediction in terms of utilities, without the need for a reference level for one utility, while providing a sensitivity analysis for misspecification of utilities, the relevant region, which is the set of values of prediction performance that are consistent with the recommended treatment status in the absence of prediction, the test threshold, which is the minimum number of tests that would be traded for a true positive prediction in order for the expected utility to be non-negative, the evaluation of two-stage predictions that reduce test costs and connections between various measures of performance of prediction. An application involving the risk of cardiovascular disease is discussed.     

Corporate Reputation and Women on the Board

In this paper, we investigate the determinants of corporate reputation, derived from the assessments of managers and market analysts, of a sample of large UK firms. Along with the influences of a variety of firm attributes, we find a reputational effect associated with a female presence at board level. This effect varies across sectors and demonstrates the influence of a firm's stakeholder environment in determining whether a female presence on the board enhances or harms the reputation of the firm. The pattern that emerges indicates that the presence of women on the board is favourably viewed in only those sectors that operate close to final consumers. We argue that the nature of this effect reflects an imperative for equality of representation that highlights the need to reflect gender diversity among customers.     

Accountability and the Camera Perspective Bias in Videotaped Confessions

Prior research indicates that altering the perspective from which a videotaped confession is recorded influences assessments of the confession's voluntariness. The present study examined whether increasing decision makers' sense of accountability attenuates this biasing effect of camera perspective. Participants in a high-accountability (but not a low-accountability) condition were told that they would have to justify their judgments concerning the voluntary status of a video-taped confession to a trial judge. Although supplementary measures indicated that high-accountability participants processed information contained in the video-taped confession more carefully and thoroughly, the camera perspective bias persisted. This result adds to a growing body of work indicating that the criminal justice system needs to be seriously concerned with how it acquires and utilizes videotaped confession evidence.     

The Good, the Bad, and the Regulator: An Experimental Test of Two Conditional Audit Schemes

Conditional audit rules are designed to achieve regulatory compliance with fewer inspections than required by random auditing. A regulator places individuals into audit pools that differ in probability of audit or severity of fine and specifies transition rules between pools. Future pool assignment is conditional on current audit results. We conduct an experiment to compare two specific schemes—Harrington's Past-Compliance Targeting and Friesen's Optimal Targeting—against random auditing. We find a production possibility frontier between compliance and minimizing inspections. Optimal targeting generates the lowest inspection rates as predicted, but random auditing the highest compliance. Past-compliance targeting is intermediate.     

Seat belt laws: why we should keep them

In the June 2007 issue of Significance , John Adams argued for the repeal of seat belt laws. They have never been demonstrated to save lives, he said; and they increase the number of pedestrians and cyclists killed on the roads. Richard Allsop, Oliver Carsten, Andrew Evans and Robert Gifford argue that Parliament should keep the seat belt laws on the statute book and that we should all keep wearing belts whenever we travel in a car, van or coach—and they contest John's statistics.     

SOCIAL ATOMISM, HOLISM, AND TRUST

The metatheoretical difference between social atomism and social holism is clarified by analysis of the generic necessity of trust. A theoretical approach to trust can be traced from Durkheim, Simmel, Parsons, and the recent work of Luhmann and Barber. Trust functions as a deep assumption underwriting social order and is not reducible to individual characteristics. Changes in trust alter social relationships. The study of power, exchange, family, and politics illustrates how trust constitutes social reality as emergent and holistic. This helps us understand the formation of interpersonal relationships, the difference between economic and social exchange, and the discrepancy between attitudes toward society and toward particular institutional actors.