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1.
Point processes are the stochastic models most suitable for describing physical phenomena that appear at irregularly spaced
times, such as the earthquakes. These processes are uniquely characterized by their conditional intensity, that is, by the
probability that an event will occur in the infinitesimal interval (t, t+Δt), given the history of the process up tot. The seismic phenomenon displays different behaviours on different time and size scales; in particular, the occurrence of
destructive shocks over some centuries in a seismogenic region may be explained by the elastic rebound theory. This theory
has inspired the so-called stress release models: their conditional intensity translates the idea that an earthquake produces
a sudden decrease in the amount of strain accumulated gradually over time along a fault, and the subsequent event occurs when
the stress exceeds the strength of the medium. This study has a double objective: the formulation of these models in the Bayesian
framework, and the assignment to each event of a mark, that is its magnitude, modelled through a distribution that depends
at timet on the stress level accumulated up to that instant. The resulting parameter space is constrained and dependent on the data,
complicating Bayesian computation and analysis. We have resorted to Monte Carlo methods to solve these problems. 相似文献
2.
论网络隐私权的法律保护 总被引:23,自引:0,他引:23
计算机信息网络技术的发展使得网络空间的个人隐私权受到前所未有的严峻挑战 ,这种状况已经严重阻碍了电子商务和网络经济的进一步发展。强化对网络空间的个人数据和隐私权的法律保护 ,已成为国际社会网络立法的当务之急。本文借鉴先进法域的立法经验并结合我国当前现状 ,提出了网络隐私权保护的相关立法建议 相似文献
3.
4.
Arcagni Alberto Barbiano di Belgiojoso Elisa Fattore Marco Rimoldi Stefania M. L. 《Social indicators research》2019,141(2):551-579
Social Indicators Research - In this paper, we present a multidimensional fuzzy analysis of the levels and the patterns of poverty and social fragility of migrants’ families, in the Italian... 相似文献
5.
Elisa Lopez Lucia Joanna Buckley Heather Marquette Neil McCulloch 《Development policy review : the journal of the Overseas Development Institute》2019,37(Z1):O16-O32
Despite the wealth that comes from being the biggest oil producer in Africa, Nigeria has some of the worst development indicators in the world. From 2011 to mid‐2016, the DFID‐funded Facility for Oil Sector Transparency and Reform (FOSTER) programme's unique design aimed to reduce incentives for the capture of oil revenue by elites and international oil companies, restoring the potential of those revenues to accelerate economic and social development. This article asks what lessons FOSTER's successes and failures offer for improved “thinking and working politically” (TWP). It examines the outcomes from five “clusters” of interventions: three viewed by the FOSTER team as successes and two as failures. The article identifies factors for successful TWP‐based programming, including the need for local ownership rooted in staff with a combination of technical expertise, a deep knowledge of the local political context and excellent networking abilities. The research used a qualitative and inductive approach. Field research was undertaken with 44 semi‐structured qualitative interviews during one month of fieldwork in Abuja and Lagos. The research also included reviews of FOSTER's internal documentation and evaluation frameworks, as well as analysis of newspaper articles and grey literature on the oil sector in Nigeria. The project offers important lessons for politically informed programming about how interventions were implemented (process), what was actually done (content) and how the project responded to changes in context that created or blocked opportunities for reform (responsiveness). The article identifies factors for successful TWP‐based programming, including the need for local ownership rooted in staff with a combination of technical expertise, a deep knowledge of the local political context and excellent networking abilities. The findings have important implications for programme design. They demonstrate the value of built‐in flexibility that allows staff to choose and switch the partners they work with and the channels they work through. They also show that a key aspect of TWP‐based programming is implicit acceptance that some failure may be unavoidable, since this permits staff to balance risk against opportunities. Finally, a better understanding of FOSTER's failures reveals the challenges of a TWP‐based approach and the trade‐offs it demands. 相似文献
6.
Recent years have seen the development and implementation of a range of training programs aimed at improving children's socio‐emotional skills. Nevertheless, few studies have been conducted with toddlers attending nursery school. In this study, we adopted observational and experimental paradigms to examine the efficacy of an intervention based on conversing about emotions with small groups of 2‐ to 3‐year‐old children. The intervention was designed to promote toddlers' mental‐state talk, emotion understanding (EU), and prosocial behavior. The training group significantly outperformed the control group in the use of mental‐state language, especially emotional‐state lexicon, EU, and prosocial behavior toward peers. There was also a significant Group × Age interaction, with the older training group participants displaying greater gains in EU than the younger ones. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of these findings. 相似文献
7.
Patrick Gagliardini Elisa Ossola Olivier Scaillet 《Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society》2016,84(3):985-1046
We develop an econometric methodology to infer the path of risk premia from a large unbalanced panel of individual stock returns. We estimate the time‐varying risk premia implied by conditional linear asset pricing models where the conditioning includes both instruments common to all assets and asset‐specific instruments. The estimator uses simple weighted two‐pass cross‐sectional regressions, and we show its consistency and asymptotic normality under increasing cross‐sectional and time series dimensions. We address consistent estimation of the asymptotic variance by hard thresholding, and testing for asset pricing restrictions induced by the no‐arbitrage assumption. We derive the restrictions given by a continuum of assets in a multi‐period economy under an approximate factor structure robust to asset repackaging. The empirical analysis on returns for about ten thousand U.S. stocks from July 1964 to December 2009 shows that risk premia are large and volatile in crisis periods. They exhibit large positive and negative strays from time‐invariant estimates, follow the macroeconomic cycles, and do not match risk premia estimates on standard sets of portfolios. The asset pricing restrictions are rejected for a conditional four‐factor model capturing market, size, value, and momentum effects. 相似文献
8.
Csongrádi Gyöngyi 《Voluntas: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations》2020,31(3):646-647
VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations - 相似文献
9.
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty - Ambiguity preferences are important to explain human decision-making in many areas in economics and finance. To measure individual ambiguity preferences, the... 相似文献
10.
Elisa Perrone Andreas Rappold Werner G. Müller 《Statistical Methods and Applications》2017,26(3):403-418
Optimum experimental design theory has recently been extended for parameter estimation in copula models. The use of these models allows one to gain in flexibility by considering the model parameter set split into marginal and dependence parameters. However, this separation also leads to the natural issue of estimating only a subset of all model parameters. In this work, we treat this problem with the application of the \(D_s\)-optimality to copula models. First, we provide an extension of the corresponding equivalence theory. Then, we analyze a wide range of flexible copula models to highlight the usefulness of \(D_s\)-optimality in many possible scenarios. Finally, we discuss how the usage of the introduced design criterion also relates to the more general issue of copula selection and optimal design for model discrimination. 相似文献