Utilizing Bayesian predictive power in clinical trial design

The Bayesian paradigm provides an ideal platform to update uncertainties and carry them over into the future in the presence of data. Bayesian predictive power (BPP) reflects our belief in the eventual success of a clinical trial to meet its goals. In this paper we derive mathematical expressions for the most common types of outcomes, to make the BPP accessible to practitioners, facilitate fast computations in adaptive trial design simulations that use interim futility monitoring, and propose an organized BPP-based phase II-to-phase III design framework.     

Decomposing primary and secondary effects: A new decomposition method

One strand of educational inequality research aims at decomposing the effect of social class origin on educational choices into primary and secondary effects. We formalize this distinction and present a new and simple method that allows empirical assessment of the relative magnitudes of primary and secondary effects. Contrary to other decomposition methods, this new method is unbiased, is more intuitive, and decomposes effects of both discrete and continuous measures of social origin. The method also provides analytically derived statistical tests and is easily calculated with standard statistical software. We give examples using the Danish Longitudinal Survey of Youth.     

Lebensstile und Wohnstandortwahl

Life style research and various disciplines dealing with regional studies argue that life styles are explanatory relevant for decisions in different behavioral areas, in particular for residential choices. However, the results of previous research are rather mixed. To specify the conditions for the explanatory relevance of life style based preferences for locational choices, this article ties in with a parsimonious decision theoretic model, which has been applied both in the sociology of the city and in life style research. Based on this theoretical framework an empirical study is presented, which tests the explanatory relevance of life styles for residential choices. The study is based on neighborhood survey data from Leipzig, representing a context, in which a strong impact of life styles may be expected. However, even in this context the empirical study shows rather limited explanatory power of life style based preferences for residential choices, whereas household arrangements and economic resource endowments of persons show much more explanatory power.     

Changing informal institutions via mimesis: Gender equality in marriage proposals

Marriage equality has exposed how the institution of marriage is changing, but less attention has been given to how informal institutions around heterosexual marriage rituals are affected by a growing demand for gender equality. By applying institutional theory and feminist institutionalism to the context of women proposing to their male partners, this paper observes how shifts in gender norms change heteronormative institutions. Drawing from interviews with women who proposed to men and a virtual ethnography, we describe how reverse proposals can set precedence for emulation of practices or mimetic isomorphism. We therewith contribute to institutional theory in threefold ways. First, we describe how mimetic isomorphism introduces new standards and norms into a highly traditional institution. Second, we show how this integration of new standards and norms serves this patriarchal institution to remain relevant and appear progressive. Finally, we contend that this tension of joining a patriarchal institution but doing so in a subversive manner represents a double bind for women who are encouraged by society to formalize their heteronormative relationships through marriage and yet chastised for initiating this themselves.     

冒险成就的电信巨头

从任何一个角度看,全球无线手机通讯行业都在快速逼近危机的边缘。全世界已经有50多个国家的手机用户数量超过其实际人口数量。即使是在工业化国家中手机人均拥有率较低的美国,在用的手机数量也超过了2.7亿部（市场渗透率接近于90％）。今天,随着无线通讯市场的日益萎缩,     

1979–1982: RULES OR DISCRETION IN MONETARY POLICY?

What determined MI growth from November 1979 through October 1982? A reaction function is developed and tested which ascribes the level of M1 to two Fed motives. One is the Fed's desire to hit its money growth targets, the other is to carry out a counter-cyclical short-run monetary policy. Both motives are found to be significant during the period. This evidence is consistent with the contention of some economists that the period was not a valid test of monetarist policy rules.     

Role of motives and attributes in consumer motion picture choice

The study focuses on consumer motion picture motives and choice criteria. Its purpose can be specified into the following objectives: (1) to examine the motivational basis of cinema attending. (2) to examine the predictive ability of movie motives and consumers' attribute importances in preference regressions of four types of movie, (3) to carry out a motion picture choice analysis by predicting audience membership with discriminant analysis. The data is based on a convinience sample of Finnish consumers (N = 228) attending one of the following types of movie: adventures/ thrillers, human/ social dramas, sex movies, entertainment movies.The results of a group of multivariate analyses (factor analysis, canonical correlation, preference regression, and discriminant analysis) indicate that consumers attending different types of films have distinctly separate motivation bases, as well as attribute importance profiles, underlying their movie choices. Each movie type had a specific preference structure, expressed by the regression coefficients. Finally, the discriminant analysis suggests that the general motive and attribute variables are effective also in predicting motion picture choice. On balance, the results were mutually supportive and exemplify the managerial usefulness of quantitative consumer analysis also in the case of such abstract leisure products as motion pictures.     

Soft cultures: the symbolism of cross-border organizing 1

It is not always true that the concept of culture implies a convergence on one meaning, one set of values, one pattern of behaviour. This paper develops the notion of soft culture. Cultures are soft in the sense that multiple renderings of reality are accepted and legitimized. Soft culture is studied in the context of cross-national technology development projects. Such projects are loosely structured communities, as organizational actors are separated in time and space. The paper demonstrates how symbols work among those actors. In addition to the traditional uses of symbolic categorizing, in soft culture the symbols also play an important role in attracting more networks to the action and licensing a wide variety of exploratory activities. These equivocal characteristics of symbols should be considered a strength in face of overwhelming uncertainty since they allow actors to construct multiple futures and pursue them.     

The accuracy of normal approximation in a heterogeneous panel data unit root test

Tests for unit roots in panel data have become very popular. Two attractive features of panel data unit root tests are the increased power compared to time-series tests, and the often well-behaved limiting distributions of the tests. In this paper we apply Monte Carlo simulations to investigate how well the normal approximation works for a heterogeneous panel data unit root test when there are only a few cross sections in the sample. We find that the normal approximation, which should be valid for large numbers of cross-sectional units, works well, at conventional significance levels, even when the number of cross sections is as small as two. This finding is valuable for the applied researcher since critical values will be easy to obtain and p-values will be readily available.     

Spielarten des Kapitalismus und Kompetenzen von Hochschulabsolventinnen und -absolventen

The assumption that differences in Higher Education (HE) systems can be related to Varieties of Capitalism (VoC) is the underlying hypothesis of this article. Drawing on the example of skills and competencies of HE graduates in the UK and Germany, complementarities between the educational and economic system are analysed. First, hypotheses about differences in competencies are deduced on a theoretical basis from the VoC-approach. Second, the analysis of data from an international comparative survey (REFLEX) confirms that these differences indeed can be found empirically: German graduates put more emphasis on specific skills, while UK-graduates stress more general competencies. Additionally, the fit between study and later job is closer in Germany. These results show, first, that the complementarities postulated by the VoC-approach can also be found for the field of HE. Second, the recourse on the relationship between economic and educational system can stimulate research in comparative and international education. Third, these findings are also relevant for the current HE reform discourse.