CAN THE PRESIDENT REALLY AFFECT ECONOMIC GROWTH? PRESIDENTIAL EFFORT AND THE POLITICAL BUSINESS CYCLE

Presidential elections are often seen as referendums on the health of the economy; however, little evidence exists on the president's ability to influence gross domestic product (GDP). This study examines the effect of the incentive to be reelected and the resulting increase in presidential effort on GDP growth. Growth is found to rise in reelection years for first‐term presidents after 1932 and to fall in election years before 1932, when reelection was uncommon, and for second‐term presidents generally. This effect is largest for high‐quality presidents—who probably have the highest return to effort—and is spread across multiple sectors of the economy. (JEL D78, D72, E32, J24)     

Still-births among the offspring of male radiation workers at the Sellafield nuclear reprocessing plant: detailed results and statistical aspects

Summary. This study investigates whether there was evidence of increasing risk of still-birth with increasing paternal exposure to ionizing radiation received during employment at the Sellafield nuclear installation before the child was conceived. A significant positive association is found between the total paternal preconceptional exposure to external ionizing radiation and the risk of still-birth (after adjustment for year of birth, social class, birth order and paternal age, odds ratio at 100 mSv 1.24 (95% confidence interval 1.04–1.45)). A summary of the principal scientific findings of this study has been published in the Lancet . This paper describes in detail the statistical methods that were used in the investigation and presents the results in full.     

Differences in preferred level of arousal in two sub-groups of problem gamblers: A preliminary report

Twelve problem poker machine players and thirteen horse race gamblers (20 males and 5 females; age range 28–69) completed a series of questionnaires which assessed levels of anxiety, their preferred state of arousal and their motivations to gamble. As predicted, problem poker machine gamblers were found to be more anxious and reported avoiding arousal more frequently than the horse race gamblers. Alternately, problem horse race gamblers were found to prefer heightened levels of arousal and appeared to gamble to achieve these optimal levels of arousal. However, there was no difference between the groups on proneness to boredom. The present results provide evidence which is consistent with the Reversal theory and its application to the field of problem gambling.     

Population constraints on pooled surveys in demographic hazard modeling

In non-experimental research, data on the same population process may be collected simultaneously by more than one instrument. For example, in the present application, two sample surveys and a population birth registration system all collect observations on first births by age and year, while the two surveys additionally collect information on women’s education. To make maximum use of the three data sources, the survey data are pooled and the population data introduced as constraints in a logistic regression equation. Reductions in standard errors about the age and birth-cohort parameters of the regression equation in the order of three-quarters are obtained by introducing the population data as constraints. A halving of the standard errors about the education parameters is achieved by pooling observations from the larger survey dataset with those from the smaller survey. The percentage reduction in the standard errors through imposing population constraints is independent of the total survey sample size.     

The Contribution of NPOs to Family Policy Formulation in EU Member and Applicant States

This paper examines the role of nonprofit organizations (NPOs) in the process of family policy formulation in eight member states and three applicant states of the European Union. Drawing upon interviews with representatives from the nonprofit sector, the author argues that the experiences of NPOs in family policy-making vary considerably between countries because of the way state–nonprofit relations operate. Social origins theory illustrates why these variations exist by pointing to broad societal influences on the nonprofit sector, but new empirical evidence presented here suggests that, in a particular policy field, other factors, such as the significance of the field on policy agendas, the strength of one particular organization in a specific cultural context, party ideology, and financial viability of the NPO, shape the role of organizations in the formulation of policies     

Research project on advocacy and autism

This article presents the findings of a qualitative research project about the difficulties in accessing advocacy faced by adults labelled as having autism and Asperger's Syndrome in the Northwest of England. It is also an example of partnership working between three organisations. The article examines both the process of team-led (emancipatory) research and the project findings. Seven main themes emerged throughout the research: late diagnosis and lack of service support; bad experiences with systems of care; feelings of 'not belonging' (identity issues); barriers around communication and sensitivity towards individuals; lack of awareness and access to advocacy and rights; difficulties of 'fitting into' what is already available; and interest in developing knowledge around advocacy. Examination of the main themes pointed to a disturbing link between poor service response, episodes of crisis and mental ill health. The Carlisle People First Research Team is made up of 6 researchers who are labelled as having 'learning difficulties' who work in partnership with one other researcher.