Assessing a minimum pension guarantee for the voluntary IPS in Turkey

The returns from individual account pension plans are subject to fluctuations in capital markets. This increases income uncertainty for the beneficiary and exposes individuals to the risk of fluctuations in the economy in general and the stock market in particular. A minimum pension guarantee is a way to avoid this pitfall by providing a minimum annuity regardless of the actual investment performance of individual accounts. In this article, we present a cost analysis of a minimum benefit guarantee mechanism for the voluntary Individual Pension System in Turkey. We examine the cost estimates and the probability of providing guaranteed payments under various economic and demographic assumptions.     

Assessing gender inequality in the Turkish pension system

Abstract   Since the 1990s, the welfare regime in Turkey has become more market-oriented. The introduction of the Individual Pension System (IPS), a privately managed defined contribution scheme, is part of this process. This paper uses an autoregressive stochastic model in order to show the total effect of specific disadvantages, such as a shorter working life, less earnings, longer life expectancy, real wage growth, administrative cost and risk aversion, on the retirement benefits of women in Turkey. Using an actuarial model, the article aims to contribute to the literature by investigating the gender gap in the Turkish defined contribution scheme.     

Claim Dependence Induced by Common Effects in Hierarchical Credibility Models

In the usual credibility model, observations are made of a risk or group of risks selected from a population, and claims are assumed to be independent among different risks. However, there are some problems in practical applications and this assumption may be violated in some situations. Some credibility models allow for one source of claim dependence only, that is, across time for an individual insured risk or a group of homogeneous insured risks. Some other credibility models have been developed on a two-level common effects model that allows for two possible sources of dependence, namely, across time for the same individual risk and between risks. In this paper, we argue for the notion of modeling claim dependence on a three-level common effects model that allows for three possible sources of dependence, namely, across portfolios, across individuals and simultaneously across time within individuals. We also obtain the corresponding credibility premiums hierarchically using the projection method. Then we derive the general hierarchical structure or multi-level credibility premiums for the models with h-level of common effects.     

Competitive Quality Choice and Remanufacturing

We consider an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) who faces competition from an independent remanufacturer (IR). The OEM decides the quality of the new product, which also determines the quality of the competing remanufactured product. The OEM and the IR then competitively determine their production quantities. We explicitly characterize how the OEM competes with the IR in equilibrium. Specifically, we show that the OEM relies more on quality as a strategic lever when it has a stronger competitive position (determined by the relative cost and value of new and remanufactured products), and in contrast it relies more heavily on limiting quantity of cores when it has a weaker competitive position. The IR's entry threat as well as its successful entry can decrease the consumer surplus. Furthermore, our results illustrate that ignoring the competition or the OEM's quality choice leads to overestimating benefits of remanufacturing for consumer and social welfare. In addition, we show an IR with either a sufficiently weak competitive position (so the OEM deters entry) or a sufficiently strong one (so the OEM is forced to limit quantity of cores) is desirable for reducing the environmental impact. Comparing our results with the benchmark in which the OEM remanufactures suggests that encouraging IRs to remanufacture in lieu of the OEMs may not benefit the environment. Furthermore, the benchmark illustrates that making remanufacturing more attractive improves the environmental impact when the remanufacturer is the OEM, while worsening it when remanufacturing is done by the IR.