Comparison of Four New General Classes of Search Designs

A factor screening experiment identifies a few important factors from a large list of factors that potentially influence the response. If a list consists of m factors each at three levels, a design is a subset of all possible 3 ^m runs. This paper considers the problem of finding designs with small numbers of runs, using the search linear model introduced in Srivastava (1975). The paper presents four new general classes of these 'search designs', each with 2 m −1 runs, which permit, at most, two important factors out of m factors to be searched for and identified. The paper compares the designs for 4 ≤ m ≤ 10, using arithmetic and geometric means of the determinants, traces and maximum characteristic roots of particular matrices. Two of the designs are found to be superior in all six criteria studied. The four designs are identical for m = 3 and this design is an optimal design in the class of all search designs under the six criteria. The four designs are also identical for m = 4 under some row and column permutations.     

Defining the health care product to ensure quality and manage costs

The frenzy of health care reform activity now led by the Clinton Administration's American Health Security Act of 1993 might end in the worst of all possible outcomes: a new government entitlement program financed by business and a global budget. Unbridled entitlement could drive utilization of benefits to the maximum and, with a budget cap, guarantee rationing. So far, the administration has talked about expanding access and controlling costs--not about the health care product. Given the threat that change poses for vested interests, time will undoubtedly lapse before final implementation of a new system. Unless physicians involved in health management seize the opportunity during this window of opportunity to help shape the future of health care delivery, the likelihood of preserving the U.S. health care delivery system as we know it will be dim indeed.     

Children in immediate danger: Emergency removals in Finnish and Irish child protection

This paper presents a qualitative analysis of front‐line practices regarding emergency removals in Finnish and Irish child protection. It examines how the responses to children's immediate danger are framed by legislation and how front‐line practitioners assess the child's situation and make emergency placement decisions. The data consist of interviews with 16 Irish and 33 Finnish social workers. These child welfare protection systems respond differently to a task that appears to be similar. The Irish team‐based practice rests on the social workers' shared assessment of the child's needs, and the formal decision is made by the courts (or police officers at night‐time); and the Finnish practice involves only one single social worker who makes both the assessment and the removal decision. The Irish system is tightly time regulated, whereas the Finnish system provides a more flexible time frame. Both approaches put a lot of stress on social workers' practice, which also includes creative workarounds (e.g., “planned emergency removals” in Finland). Future research will need to explore these features from the point of view of a child's right to protection.     

The Role of Behavioral Responses in the Total Economic Consequences of Terrorist Attacks on U.S. Air Travel Targets

U.S. airports and airliners are prime terrorist targets. Not only do the facilities and equipment represent high‐value assets, but the fear and dread that is spread by such attacks can have tremendous effects on the U.S. economy. This article presents the methodology, data, and estimates of the macroeconomic impacts stemming from behavioral responses to a simulated terrorist attack on a U.S. airport and on a domestic airliner. The analysis is based on risk‐perception surveys of these two scenarios. The responses relate to reduced demand for airline travel, shifts to other modes, spending on nontravel items, and savings of potential travel expenditures by U.S. resident passengers considering flying domestic routes. We translate these responses to individual spending categories and feed these direct impact results into a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the U.S. economy to ascertain the indirect and total impacts on both the airline industry and the economy as a whole. Overall, the estimated impacts on GDP of both types of attacks exceed $10B. We find that the behavioral economic impacts are almost an order of magnitude higher than the ordinary business interruption impacts for the airliner attack and nearly two orders of magnitude higher for the airport attack. The results are robust to sensitivity tests on the travel behavior of U.S. residents in response to terrorism.     

Near‐Misses and Future Disaster Preparedness

Disasters garner attention when they occur, and organizations commonly extract valuable lessons from visible failures, adopting new behaviors in response. For example, the United States saw numerous security policy changes following the September 11 terrorist attacks and emergency management and shelter policy changes following Hurricane Katrina. But what about those events that occur that fall short of disaster? Research that examines prior hazard experience shows that this experience can be a mixed blessing. Prior experience can stimulate protective measures, but sometimes prior experience can deceive people into feeling an unwarranted sense of safety. This research focuses on how people interpret near‐miss experiences. We demonstrate that when near‐misses are interpreted as disasters that did not occur and thus provide the perception that the system is resilient to the hazard, people illegitimately underestimate the danger of subsequent hazardous situations and make riskier decisions. On the other hand, if near‐misses can be recognized and interpreted as disasters that almost happened and thus provide the perception that the system is vulnerable to the hazard, this will counter the basic “near‐miss” effect and encourage mitigation. In this article, we use these distinctions between resilient and vulnerable near‐misses to examine how people come to define an event as either a resilient or vulnerable near‐miss, as well as how this interpretation influences their perceptions of risk and their future preparedness behavior. Our contribution is in highlighting the critical role that people's interpretation of the prior experience has on their subsequent behavior and in measuring what shapes this interpretation.     

Investigating the Structural Validity of Ryff’s Psychological Well-Being Scales Across Two Samples

Ryff’s (1989b) Psychological Well-Being (PWB) scales measure six related constructs of human functioning. The present paper examined the validity of Ryff’s 6-factor PWB model, using data from a life events study (N = 401) and an organisational climate study (N = 679). Previous validation studies, using Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA), have identified alternative PWB models, but limitations include the use of shorter scale versions with items relating to a number of life domains within the same PWB factor, and failure to examine the influence of participants’ socio-demographic characteristics on PWB. In this study, Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) mostly found consistency in the PWB items and structure between the two studies whereby a 3-factor model delineated between items relating to Autonomy, Positive Relations and a super-ordinate factor comprising the other PWB factors. Using CFA, Goodness of Fit indices reached acceptable levels for the adjusted PWB model identified by the EFA, whilst differences between adjusted models of PWB previously identified in the literature were hardly evident. Post-hoc analysis by gender demonstrated socio-demographic effects on the structure and items that comprise PWB. Further development of PWB measures is needed to reflect its hierarchical and multi-dimensional nature. In the scales’ current form, the construct validation of the PWB factors will continue to be problematic and will fail to adequately evaluate the nature and impact of PWB.     

Think they're drunk? Alcohol servers and the identification of intoxication

Despite alcohol server training programs and legal liability aimed at controlling intoxication, server intervention appears to be rare. Given the difficulty in assessing intoxication, it can be assumed that improvement in assessment skills would increase the likelihood of intervention. Unfortunately, little is known regarding practices servers use to identify intoxication. In order to build a more informed base for policy formation and server training, the focus of this inquiry was to examine practices used by servers to assess intoxication. The analysis was based upon questionnaires mailed to a random probability sample of licensed servers from one state (N = 822). Indicators found to be most important were examined in relation to a variety of occupational characteristics. Implications for training curricula, policy formation, and future research are discussed.