Population policy in Mainland China

Population policy in Communist China has little demographic significance. It is of interest mainly for what it reveals about the nature of the administrative and decision making process in Peking. Although the evidence is often ambiguous, six fairly distinct phases of population policy can be distinguished, during which policy shifted from categoric denial of population problems to an endorsement of birth control and back to the denial of population problems. There are indications that the birth control campaign was first activated in response to fears of overpopulation, that it was abandoned during the “ leap forward ” in 1958 because the Chinese Communist leaders actually believed their economic expedients had achieved miraculous success, and that the recent absence of explicit policy reflects both a disillusionment with the “ leap forward ” and reluctance to resume openly the birth control campaign. Apparently, Peking is at present waiting hopefully for good news from the agricultural front before undertaking another major policy revision; if this hope is disappointed, the consequences may have great international significance.     

The multiattribute evaluation of program-planning contractors

This note describes how the theory of measurable multiattribute value functions was used to evaluate the proposals of three competing subcontractors for a program-planning project undertaken by Los Alamos National Laboratory. The purpose of the program-planning project was to develop a methodology for the evaluation of alternative long-range strategies for the achievement of controlled thermonuclear fusion. A measurable multiattribute value function was developed based on eleven criteria. Eight judges made evaluations on each of these criteria, and their judgments were synthesized to identify the winning subcontractor. While we emphasize details associated with this specific application, we expect the problem structure and methodology to be amenable to other contractor-and proposal-evaluation efforts after only minor modifications.     

Patient progress modelling and results in Wilm's Tumour

The report describes the development of a mathematical model of the progress of patients with Wilm's Tumour using the methodology developed by Jackson & Aspden [1, 2]. The model incorporates two prognostic factors which are shown to influence patient progress. These are the stage of the tumour and the age of the patient at presentation. The model proved adequate to represent an initial set of patient data, and comparison runs were performed with data from a later time period. These runs highlighted changes in patient progress between the two groups and illustrated the usefulness of the model in this type of analysis. The analysis also underlined the poor prognosis of patients over 5 years old who relapsed.