Climate change and population migration in Brazil’s Northeast: scenarios for 2025–2050

This research contributes to an understanding of the relationship between climate change, economic impacts and migration. We model the long-term relationship (up to 45 years of projection) between demographic dynamics—particularly migration—driven by changes in the performance of the economy due to climate changes in the Northeast region of Brazil. The region is of particular relevance to the study of climate change impacts given its large human population (28% of Brazil’s population) and high levels of impoverishment, having an extensive semi-dry area which will be severely impacted by growing temperatures. Ultimately, the integrated model generates state- and municipal-level migration scenarios based on climate change impacts on the primary economic sectors and their articulations with other sectors. Results suggest that the predicted climate changes will impact severely the agriculture sector in the region, acting as a potential migration push factor to other regions in the country. Finally, we discuss how the increased vulnerability of some groups, particularly migrants, can be factored into Brazilian public policy and planning.     

Causality and interdependence analysis in linear econometric models with an application to fertility

This paper is an applied analysis of the causal structure of linear multi-equational econometric models. Its aim is to identify the kind of relationships linking the endogenous variables of the model, distinguishing between causal links and feedback loops. The investigation is first carried out within a deterministic framework and then moves on to show how the results may change inside a more realistic stochastic context. The causal analysis is then specifically applied to a linear simultaneous equation model explaining fertility rates. The analysis is carried out by means of a specific RATS programming code designed to show the specific nature of the relationships within the model.     

Measuring and Analysing Community Action for Health: An Indicator-Based Typology and Its Application to the Case of Barcelona

Social welfare systems face major challenges, particularly in a context of social transformation, austerity and growing inequalities. This process is highly visible in the health sector. In this context, many voices ask for public sector reforms and community action for health as a relevant practice. However, analyses and evaluations of this kind of practices are still limited, particularly beyond the cases of single community health actions or interventions. We still need to identify key indicators for measuring and characterising what community action for health consists of, as well as to what degree this kind of intervention has been developed across a city. Based on a research about 49 neighborhoods in Barcelona, this paper creates an index to measure and characterize community action for health, using different indicators: citizen engagement programs in community health, organizational transformation of the health and social protection systems, stable participatory structures with specific teams, and urban health policies. We apply the index to the case of Barcelona and build a map of community action for health in the city using 4 categories: strong community health development (one neighbourhood), middle (9 neighborhoods), emergent (25 neighborhoods) and without specific community health promotion (14 neighbourhoods). We find that community action for health is extensive within the city of Barcelona, have great potential as a response to the need for change in the relationship between the public (health) sector and the citizenry, but is still implemented unequally across the urban territory in terms of types and methods.     

Book reviews

Sociocybernetics: Complexity, Dynamics and Emergence in Social Science Kybernetes, Vol. 26, No. 6/7 F. Geyer (Ed.) MCB University Press, Bradford, ISSN 0368–492X

Foundations of Futures Studies Wendell Bell New Brunswick, London, Transaction Publishers, 1997     

SPORTING EVENTS,EMOTIONAL CUES,AND CRIME: SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVIDENCE FROM BRAZILIAN SOCCER GAMES

Utilizing a novel data set of police reports that provides granular street‐ and vehicle‐level information on vehicle thefts and robberies in the city of São Paulo, Brazil, we explore the impact of soccer games and their outcomes on crime and study its spatial heterogeneity. Estimates from a regression discontinuity design suggest that crime increases immediately after home games in streets that are within a tight radius from the stadiums. The effect is driven by vehicle thefts with popular car models being more likely to be targeted and is particularly salient after upset losses and derby games.(JEL D91, R12, Z2)     

Period‐Based Mortality Change: Turning Points in Trends since 1950

We investigate a major turning point in mortality trends at adult ages that occurred for many low‐mortality countries in the late 1960s or early 1970s. We analyze patterns of total and cause‐specific mortality over the past 60 years using data from the Human Mortality Database and the World Health Organization. We focus on four broad categories of causes of death: heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, smoking‐related cancers, and all other cancers. We use a two‐slope regression model to assess the timing and magnitude of turning points in mortality trends over this era, making separate analyses by sex, age, and cause of death. The age pattern of temporal changes is given particular attention. Our results demonstrate convincingly that period‐based factors were very significant in the onset of the “cardiovascular revolution” in the years around 1970. In general, although cohort processes cannot be ruled out as a driver of mortality change in recent decades (especially for mortality due to smoking‐related cancers), the evidence reviewed here suggests that period factors have been the dominant force behind the mortality trends of high‐income countries during this era.     

The Possible Effects of Child Survival on Women's Ages at First Union and Childbirth in Sub-Saharan Africa

Improvements in childsurvival may lead to lower fertility throughseveral pathways. To date, most studies havefocused on the physiological and replacementeffects, whose impacts are known to be modestin size. Few have examined the potentially moreimportant insurance effect on fertility withinunion, and almost none have considered thepossible relationship between child mortalityand marriage, which could also grow out of aninsurance strategy. In this study, we use datafrom 21 sub-Saharan African countries to assessthe relationship between child mortality andyoung women's ages at first marriage andchildbirth. The results show that lower levelsof mortality are strongly associated with latermarriages and first births, even aftercontrolling for the effects of a large numberof other variables. The implications of thefindings are discussed and alternativeexplanations for this relationship arepresented.