Quantifying uncertainty in the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales

Summary.  A crucial issue in the current global warming debate is the effect of vegetation and soils on carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations in the atmosphere. Vegetation can extract CO₂ through photosynthesis, but respiration, decay of soil organic matter and disturbance effects such as fire return it to the atmosphere. The balance of these processes is the net carbon flux. To estimate the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales, we address the statistical problem of inference for the sum of multiple outputs from a complex deterministic computer code whose input parameters are uncertain. The code is a process model which simulates the carbon dynamics of vegetation and soils, including the amount of carbon that is stored as a result of photosynthesis and the amount that is returned to the atmosphere through respiration. The aggregation of outputs corresponding to multiple sites and types of vegetation in a region gives an estimate of the total carbon flux for that region over a period of time. Expert prior opinions are elicited for marginal uncertainty about the relevant input parameters and for correlations of inputs between sites. A Gaussian process model is used to build emulators of the multiple code outputs and Bayesian uncertainty analysis is then used to propagate uncertainty in the input parameters through to uncertainty on the aggregated output. Numerical results are presented for England and Wales in the year 2000. It is estimated that vegetation and soils in England and Wales constituted a net sink of 7.55 Mt C (1 Mt C = 10¹² g of carbon) in 2000, with standard deviation 0.56 Mt C resulting from the sources of uncertainty that are considered.     

It's a Difference,but Is It Significant?

Clinical significance, statistical significance, the CBT monoculture, the politics of service provision, and the search for additional ways to be effective.     

Rating the revolution: Silicon Valley in normative perspective

Silicon Valley, California – home of Apple, Facebook, Twitter, Google, and so on – is widely regarded as the epicentre of the information revolution. However, it is not just a technical or economic phenomenon; it has also made a social revolution. The article evaluates Silicon Valley from a normative perspective, seeking to identify its real societal impact, negative as well as positive. A select review of significant literature is followed by exposition of primary data, based on in situ face-to-face interviews with Valley occupants; these range from the chief technology officer of a global brand to a homeless, unemployed Vietnam War veteran. The article organises its findings under three headings: the nature of information revolution; iCapitalism as a new technoeconomic synthesis; and the normative crisis of the information society. It concludes with a warning about ongoing attempts to clone Silicon Valley around the world.     

Beyond ‘bikelash’: engaging with community opposition to cycle lanes

This article explores the phenomenon of ‘bikelash’, or organised community opposition to cycle lanes. Urban residents commonly cite bicycle lanes, a space on the road reserved for cyclists, as the infrastructure most likely to encourage them to cycle. Yet the introduction of cycle lanes is often controversial. This article explores the phenomenon of bikelash, asking: Why does it occur? And what are the best ways to respond to it? A critical review of the literature on ‘contested’ cycle lane projects is undertaken in order to explore how this phenomenon can best be conceptualised within a mobilities framework.     

Changing land tenure patterns in Scotland: A time for reform?

Land tenure patterns throughout Britain have changed significantly. The popularity of the traditional agricultural tenancy has declined and in response to legislative and policy developments landowners have become reluctant to enter into long-term tenancy arangements with tenants. The result has been a growth in a number of short term leases. In response, legislative reform took place in England and Wales during 1995 and introduced a farm business tenancy. It provides for greater freedom to negotiate individual agreements. However, Scotland has been excluded. This paper illustrates that Scotland has experienced similar changes to those observed elsewhere and that the main short term lease (limited partnership tenancy) currently popular with Scottish landowners is fraught with legal and administrative difficulties. The limited partnership tenancy is not a suitable alternative to the traditional agricultural tenancy and as such there may be a case for the extension of the farm business tenancy to Scotland.     

Use of Professional and Informal Support by Black Men with Mental Disorders

This study utilized data from the National Survey of American Life to investigate the use of professional services and informal support among African American and Caribbean black men with a lifetime mood, anxiety, or substance use disorder. Thirty-three percent used both professional services and informal support, 14% relied on professional services only, 24% used informal support only, and 29% did not seek help. African American men were more likely than to rely on informal support alone. Having co-occurring mental and substance disorders, experiencing an episode in the past 12 months, and having more people in the informal network increased the likelihood of using professional services and informal supports. Marital status, age, and socioeconomic status were also significantly related to help-seeking. The results suggests potential unmet need. However, the reliance on informal support also suggests a strong protective role that informal networks play in the lives of black men.