An Agent‐Based Model for Pathogen Persistence and Cross‐Contamination Dynamics in a Food Facility

We used an agent‐based modeling (ABM) framework and developed a mathematical model to explain the complex dynamics of microbial persistence and spread within a food facility and to aid risk managers in identifying effective mitigation options. The model explicitly considered personal hygiene practices by food handlers as well as their activities and simulated a spatially explicit dynamic system representing complex interaction patterns among food handlers, facility environment, and foods. To demonstrate the utility of the model in a decision‐making context, we created a hypothetical case study and used it to compare different risk mitigation strategies for reducing contamination and spread of Listeria monocytogenes in a food facility. Model results indicated that areas with no direct contact with foods (e.g., loading dock and restroom) can serve as contamination niches and recontaminate areas that have direct contact with food products. Furthermore, food handlers’ behaviors, including, for example, hygiene and sanitation practices, can impact the persistence of microbial contamination in the facility environment and the spread of contamination to prepared foods. Using this case study, we also demonstrated benefits of an ABM framework for addressing food safety in a complex system in which emergent system‐level responses are predicted using a bottom‐up approach that observes individual agents (e.g., food handlers) and their behaviors. Our model can be applied to a wide variety of pathogens, food commodities, and activity patterns to evaluate efficacy of food‐safety management practices and quantify contamination reductions associated with proposed mitigation strategies in food facilities.     

Understanding Community Resilience from a PRA Perspective Using Binary Decision Diagrams

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a useful tool to assess complex interconnected systems. This article leverages the capabilities of PRA tools developed for industrial and nuclear risk analysis in community resilience evaluations by modeling the food security of a community in terms of its built environment as an integrated system. To this end, we model the performance of Gilroy, CA, a moderate‐size town, with regard to disruptions in its food supply caused by a severe earthquake. The food retailers of Gilroy, along with the electrical power network, water network elements, and bridges are considered as components of a system. Fault and event trees are constructed to model the requirements for continuous food supply to community residents and are analyzed efficiently using binary decision diagrams (BDDs). The study also identifies shortcomings in approximate classical system analysis methods in assessing community resilience. Importance factors are utilized to rank the importance of various factors to the overall risk of food insecurity. Finally, the study considers the impact of various sources of uncertainties in the hazard modeling and performance of infrastructure on food security measures. The methodology can be applicable for any existing critical infrastructure system and has potential extensions to other hazards.     

Effectiveness of Performance Appraisal: An Integrated Framework

Based on a robust analysis of the existing literature on performance appraisal (PA), this paper makes a case for an integrated framework of effectiveness of performance appraisal (EPA). To achieve this, it draws on the expanded view of measurement criteria of EPA, i.e. purposefulness, fairness and accuracy, and identifies their relationships with ratee reactions. The analysis reveals that the expanded view of purposefulness includes more theoretical anchors for the purposes of PA and relates to various aspects of human resource functions, e.g. feedback and goal orientation. The expansion in the PA fairness criterion suggests certain newly established nomological networks, which were ignored in the past, e.g. the relationship between distributive fairness and organization‐referenced outcomes. Further, refinements in PA accuracy reveal a more comprehensive categorization of rating biases. Coherence among measurement criteria has resulted in a ratee reactions‐based integrated framework, which should be useful for both researchers and practitioners.     

Sampling schemes for price index construction: a performance comparison across the classification of individual consumption by purpose food groups

Five sampling schemes (SS) for price index construction – one cut-off sampling technique and four probability-proportional-to-size (pps) methods – are evaluated by comparing their performance on a homescan market research data set across 21 months for each of the 13 classification of individual consumption by purpose (COICOP) food groups. Classifications are derived for each of the food groups and the population index value is used as a reference to derive performance error measures, such as root mean squared error, bias and standard deviation for each food type. Repeated samples are taken for each of the pps schemes and the resulting performance error measures analysed using regression of three of the pps schemes to assess the overall effect of SS and COICOP group whilst controlling for sample size, month and population index value. Cut-off sampling appears to perform less well than pps methods and multistage pps seems to have no advantage over its single-stage counterpart. The jackknife resampling technique is also explored as a means of estimating the standard error of the index and compared with the actual results from repeated sampling.     

Comparison of hazard rates for dependent random variables

In this paper, we define and study a new notion for the comparison of the hazard rates of two random variables taking into account their mutual dependence. Properties, applications and the comparison for a data set are given.     

Ordering results for series and parallel systems comprising heterogeneous exponentiated Weibull components

In this paper, we discuss the usual stochastic and reversed hazard rate orders between the series and parallel systems from two sets of independent heterogeneous exponentiated Weibull components. We also obtain the results concerning the convex transform orders between parallel systems and obtain necessary and sufficient conditions under which the dispersive and usual stochastic orders, and the right spread and increasing convex orders between the lifetimes of the two systems are equivalent. Finally, in the multiple-outlier exponentiated Weibull models, based on weak majorization and p-larger orders between the vectors of scale and shape parameters, some characterization results for comparing the lifetimes of parallel and series systems are also established, respectively. The results of this paper can be used in practical situations to find various bounds for the important aging characteristics of these systems.     

Forced online: push factors of internet sexuality: A preliminary study of online paraphilic empowerment

Online sexual behavior may be more completely explained by integrating a Pull Factor analysis, centering on the characteristics of the Internet that make it an appealing outlet for sexuality (e.g., "Triple A Engine") and a Push Factor analysis, centering on characteristics of the offline world that disallow fulfillment of sexual desires. This new framework is utilized in explaining paraphilic (unconventional) sexualities online. Because paraphilics are members of highly concealable, horizontal and rare sexual minorities, they are pushed online by mainstream society. Online, paraphilics interact with similar others, and through lurking, re-learning and self-disclosing, may become sexually empowered. Clinical ramifications of attainment of positive sexual-social identity via empowerment are discussed, as are possible affects on public policy.     

On the odd girth and the circular chromatic number of generalized Petersen graphs

A class \(\mathcal{G}\) of simple graphs is said to be girth-closed (odd-girth-closed) if for any positive integer g there exists a graph \(\mathrm {G} \in \mathcal{G}\) such that the girth (odd-girth) of \(\mathrm {G}\) is \(\ge g\). A girth-closed (odd-girth-closed) class \(\mathcal{G}\) of graphs is said to be pentagonal (odd-pentagonal) if there exists a positive integer \(g^*\) depending on \(\mathcal{G}\) such that any graph \(\mathrm {G} \in \mathcal{G}\) whose girth (odd-girth) is greater than \(g^*\) admits a homomorphism to the five cycle (i.e. is \(\mathrm {C}_{_{5}}\)-colourable). Although, the question “Is the class of simple 3-regular graphs pentagonal?” proposed by Ne?et?il (Taiwan J Math 3:381–423, 1999) is still a central open problem, Gebleh (Theorems and computations in circular colourings of graphs, 2007) has shown that there exists an odd-girth-closed subclass of simple 3-regular graphs which is not odd-pentagonal. In this article, motivated by the conjecture that the class of generalized Petersen graphs is odd-pentagonal, we show that finding the odd girth of generalized Petersen graphs can be transformed to an integer programming problem, and using the combinatorial and number theoretic properties of this problem, we explicitly compute the odd girth of such graphs, showing that the class is odd-girth-closed. Also, we obtain upper and lower bounds for the circular chromatic number of these graphs, and as a consequence, we show that the subclass containing generalized Petersen graphs \(\mathrm {Pet}(n,k)\) for which either k is even, n is odd and \(n\mathop {\equiv }\limits ^{k-1}\pm 2\) or both n and k are odd and \(n\ge 5k\) is odd-pentagonal. This in particular shows the existence of nontrivial odd-pentagonal subclasses of 3-regular simple graphs.